The Storm

Let me preface the rest of this post by stating the following.  Sandy is spinning near Jamaica.  The main storm has not even formed yet.  The NAO is still extremely negative.  All the ingredients are there, they only need to come into place.

I will try to keep the rest of this more visual.  We are still a few days away so not every map is up and running with the storm.  Here we go.

The models had Sandy moving up the coast with most not having much of an impact yesterday.  Consensus states with that NAO forecast it's only a matter of time before the models pick up on something potentially big. 

Here is where the latest North American model puts the formation of the low on Wednesday. 

Couple of quick notes.  This is not Sandy.  This is the secondary low that will pull moisture from whatever is left of the tropical system and move it back over New England.  Sandy for now is moving out to sea.  Even though it forms to our north we would still be in line for showers, cool air and a good amount of wind.

And the Canada model which suggests a new low forms off New Jersey.  The run is shorter so this is the last image.

If you follow the Naval model I hope you live on a hill.  This image below is not the formation of a second low.  It is the actual hurricane.  This would be a horrible scenario.

Here is the rainfall predictor from the National Weather Service for the next five days.  It doesn't take a genius to see the track of the storm they are leaning towards.  Figure with this chart somewhere between four and five inches.

It is way too early to try and guess what is going to happen.  The best bet it to watch and keep updated.  My personal hunch is that we don't see the worst of this or anything even close to the worst of it.  I think Sandy pulls away from the coast with another low forming due to the deep trough.  That nor'easter becomes more of the classic storm we tend to see from now until March but is too far north for this area to be impacted.  Of course I could be way off so keep informed.  Like I said at the start, it does have the possibility to become a massive storm.

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It's October

October is one of those classic transitional months similar to April in spring.  Nothing is surprising.

The current rainfall total in Reading is 5.16 inches and with a storm coming up the coast next week it would not be out of the question to see the end result be something closer to 7 inches for the month.

The highest temperature recorded this month was 79 which isn't much of a surprise.  I generally recall hitting 80 in previous years, but I could be wrong.  We did dip below 32 on the 13th.  Normally it takes a little longer to get below freezing temperatures.  However we have not gone under since and in fact, if the month ended today the high and low temperature averages would be the exact same as the normal monthly average.

Now for the uniqueness of the changing seasons.  If you were around the area on Friday you would have been well aware of the tornado warning for Berks County.  It was definitely odd.  It happened at night making it impossible to see anything coming and from a second story building you easily understand how people can get trapped with no place to go.  I had the radar continuously playing and saw no signs of a rotating storm.  In the end there weren't even reports of wind damage but a tornado was confirmed in Lancaster County who were not under a warning.  And for the 180 degree turn, the word snow appeared in the forecast this morning.

I missed the screen grab but that is the last on my list of checkoffs to tell me winter is approaching except for actually seeing flakes.  If we remember last October, snow is not out of the question so why not sharpen our skills for the rest of the season by tracking an early coastal storm.

The GFS currently has tropical storm Sandy push straight north up the coast but not make an impact on land.  A new low forms east of New England and then back tracks back on to land.  However, there is some disparity between the runs and the NAO forecast.  If we remember from previous winters, a negative NAO causes a blocking pattern over Greenland and cause the jet stream to dip and make a deep curl up the coast.  It brings storms up the coast while also drawing cold air down from the north.  The forecast NAO is at one of the lowest I can remember for the next six days.

The temperatures could struggle to get out of the 40's next week.  I would say snow is unlikely but an interesting storm could still take shape.  Now we wait and watch the tracking.      

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Quick Hits

We are into October which by my calculations means the first snowstorm for our area is a few weeks away if last year is any indication.  This weekend won't be warm but snow it will not.

It will be snowing in Montana.  Great Falls is looking at two to four early season inches.  And hey, I saw the boys up at the Mount Washington observation station posted a few snowy pictures themselves.

If you haven't been following tropical system Nadine you aren't alone.  It has done little to bother anything other than a few ships and maybe alter some flight patterns.  Yet this pesky storm will still go into the records books.  Nadine formed as a tropical depression on September 11th.  It has since gone back and forth from a tropical storm to a hurricane three times and has looped its own previous track twice.  It is currently spinning as a tropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic 21 days later.  By Friday it should finally get propelled north into cooler waters and become sub tropical.  Nevertheless the storm will be in the top five of longest durations of an Atlantic tropical system in recorded history.

I was slacking on the big event in September when New York City boroughs were hit by two tornadoes that seemed to come out of nowhere.  There were calls for severe weather that day but I believe these ended up happening basically out ahead of the supposed violent storms.  Here is one that came off the water into the Breezy Point section of Queens.

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Pollen Problems

It's that wonderful time of the year.  The summer is drawing to a close.  The humidity has left us for a more tropical destination as many birds flock to do the same.  The night air is cool.  Cool enough that I can check off my second precursor to winter.  I (barely) saw my breath this morning.  And then there is hay fever.  Let's go over some characteristics for a minute.  Maybe I qualify.

A late summer pollen common to the Eastern United States with symptoms that include any of the following: sneezing, sniffling, runny nose, stuffy nose, itchy throat, nasal congestion and sleep disruption.  According to the AAFA, 75% of people allergic to pollen producing plants have an allergy to ragweed.

Check, check, and double check.

My current setup is three pillows on top of each other while sleeping with a roll of toilet paper in my bed on one side and a box of tissues in my bed on the other.  The waste basket sits directly below.  Right now I'm stuffy with a slightly irritated throat.  Ten minutes from now my nose might be dripping like a faucet not turned completely off.  It's not so much of a hindrance as it is annoying.

How about those helpful tips.  Stay indoors as often as possible and keep your windows of your home and car closed.  That's humorous.  Last time my windows at home were shut was sometime Saturday.  And I'm not planning on closing them anytime soon.  They stay open all day and are open all night.  Car windows?  Come on.  I haven't had air for like two years.  They are constantly open.  Inside?  My grandmother would be laughing if you tried to tell me to not go out.  Guess I will have to make do on my own or hit up some medicine.  Though I might have to take a trip to the doctor come spring if I become a mess and get the specialized treatment.

Let's check out the next few days.  Nothing better than practically no rain in the forecast for pollen.

Perfect.  Fun for the whole week.

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