First Taste

Before we get to the winter update let's tend to a little fall cleaning.

After a period of warmer than normal conditions November brought us back to reality.  The average daily temperature for the month is 42.7.  This November the average was 42.8.  I'd say that is pretty darn close.  I heard many people say the month was quite a shock to the system as we seemed to skip straight from summer to winter.  It sort of makes sense.  The average temperature in November was 17 degrees colder than October.  That doesn't happen too often in fall.

While parts of the month seemed dreary Allentown recorded just 1.14 inches of rain which could make November the driest month of the year.  No measurable snow was recorded though snowfall was seen.  That's about to change for December.

Last post I mentioned I might be going against the grain suggesting we get a higher than normal snow total this season.  Quite frankly I have not seen what other predictions have been, just taking a guess they are at or below normal.  Since we have not received any snow as of this writing I can make my guess.  With that said my prediction for Allentown is 38.3.


First of the Season


Nice to see everybody get involved early in the season.  When they are receiving accumulating snow in Houston, San Antonio and Brownsville, Texas you know it's going to be an interesting storm.  A few days ago we were in the clear.  Now the system seems to keep shifting further west.  It won't mean a lot of snow, but it does seem clear we will be getting some accumulation.  Could take some time to stick so let's see what happens.  I think right around two inches is reasonable.

Current map from NOAA.

Winter weather on a Saturday afternoon.  Think I'll be out for a jog with momentary stops for picture taking.  


8:30 MORNING UPDATE:  

Not snowing as of yet so time to get a quick update.  First, here are the watches and warnings.  I believe they changed the criteria for what constitutes advisories across the area, so if you are wondering why places like Allentown and Easton do not have an advisory this is likely the case.  I'll do some checking to make sure.

Last snow total map.  Mentioned last night it seemed to be shifting west and the new totals this morning from NOAA suggest the same thing.  Only Allentown jumped by two inches in both range numbers.  This could be an interesting area to watch as well as the areas further west in this coverage area.

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The Winter Checklist

Every year around late October or early November I start mentally preparing myself for the best season of the year.  With that preparation comes my standard checklist of events that take place as we officially get into winter in our area.

• Drop to 32 degrees
• Locate the word snow in short-term forecast
• Find first snowflakes of the season (if need be drive to colder climate or higher elevation)
• See snowfall in home city/town
• Record first accumulating snow

Accumulating snow is my signal that winter begins.  Everything else is the lead up.  Since winter is dependent upon where you live, I focus less on dates and more on conditions.  Each year is unique in some way as I'm sure this one will be too.

It would be understandable that before today I posted little about winter.  The October numbers came in and sure enough, it was warm.  In fact the average temperature in October was warmer than May.  For comparison here are the differences in average temperature between May and October over the past three years.

2014:  May + 5.7 degrees
2015:  May + 13 degrees
2016:  May + 5.2 degrees

And as far as that checklist goes?  We (Allentown) have yet to check the very first item on that list.  This would normally happen in October with a day that begins with a 2.  Instead we will be a week into November.  But wait.  What is that I see floating down from the sky today as I walk through the halls in the office?  It can't be could it?  I didn't see anything in the forecast.  Sure enough mixed with that cold rain and sleet pellets were snowflakes.  Wasn't even a matter of discussion.  I even opened the door to step out to make sure.  Guess we are skipping straight ahead.  Next stop the accumulating snow.  And just for good measure I found this little map from NOAA when I got home.  The first "snow map"of the season.

We continue the skipping ahead trend with the weather this week.  The high and low temperature for Friday would be more common with temperatures in mid January.  If the high does indeed only reach the 30's on Friday, the first ten days of November will see highs in the 70's, 60's, 50's, 40's and 30's.  Again to put this in perspective in 2015 and 2016 the highs in the first 10 days were all 50 or above. 

It's this type of weather that leads me to believe winter is only going to get harder and harder to predict.

Remember the winter of 2015-16?  We didn't get accumulating snow until January 12th which I believe was the record for deepest date into a winter season without getting snowfall.  Then we received 31.9 inches in one storm.  Take away that storm and we totaled a whopping 4.3 inches.

Or last year.  We had more snow in March then all the other months combined. 

Winter snowfall forecasting is a massive guessing game.  I might be in the minority this year, but put me down for an above average snowfall season.  More to come later.
 

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First Frost

On the checklist to winter the first frost is certainly near the top.  So is the first nighttime low of 32 degrees or colder.  We can cross out first frost advisory.  Getting to 32 will likely have to wait.

I did some checking on my personal weather database and found the first dates we hit 32 over the past three years.

2014:  October 20th
2015:  October 18th
2016:  October 26th

If we do not hit 32 tonight it is possible we won't get there until November.  This has been one of those falls where the warmth hangs on.  I'll do a recap of the month once it ends, but we good easily end up with an average high above 70.

With the running festival coming up in a few days I'm reminded about some of those crisp mornings in the past.  This will be my third straight year of doing the hat trick or in this case the grand slam.  The weather looks nice which seems to be a theme for this event.  The morning runs on both Saturday and Sunday should be in the mid 40's to around 50 with sunshine.  The Friday trail run should be sunny and about 70.  Hard to complain.  I'd prefer cooler weather all around.  Upper 30's and sunshine suits me well.  

In October of 2015 both weekend days had temperatures in the 30's including that first below 32 day mentioned above on the 18th.  It was perfect running weather on two of the coolest days of that time period.

In 2016 it was more of the same.  Both days were sunny and started out in the 30's.  Odd how it works out sometimes. 

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Merrill Creek Réservoir

Well this turned into the typical RD weekend day.  In case you have not noticed I was not that active over the spring and summer.  Though an announcement is not necessary I can confirm the inactivity will continue in months without an "R".  Winter is back people.  At least for the Weather Service.  The official start of the new season began September 15th.  Most of the country will have to wait for snow, but some places have already opened up their winter account including Denver who picked up 3.2 inches this week then hit a high of 77.  There are currently no advisories up anywhere in the country so winter not exactly coming in with a bang.

When I woke this morning I had no plans for the day.  Not a surprise.  With a week to go before the running festival that will feature four different races and a marathons worth of running in 48 hours, I would normally keep any running activity light.  When I saw the low clouds and wet conditions I figured I would have to get something in today.  I could do a short loop around town.  Not very exciting.  My second thought was to do the route over South Mountain.  Seems a bit much before an event.  Plus in town runs are part of my weekly after work routine.  I would rather see something different. 

I had researched the Merrill Creek Reservoir before.  The area is not far across the PA/NJ border.  A 5 mile trail loop extends around the perimeter.  Thanks to Strava and others who had done the run before I was able to get a feel for what to expect in terms of elevation.  Not much change.  The Blue Marsh loop had once been my go to for trail runs.  This would be a little flashback.

Trail systems are not always the easiest to follow especially on your first visit.  I've had my issues before.  This one seemed basic.  It was a loop around a lake.  It was actually so basic I had considered taking regular running shoes.  Good thing I changed my mind.  Upon beginning the route I noticed a few things.  For starters the trail was more technical than I had anticipated.  It was actually quite rocky.  Remember that morning mist and fog?  What time of year is it?  Wet rocks covered in wet leaves is always a recipe for potential problems.  Maybe I didn't completely think this through.  Last thing you are looking for in an injury on a simple trail run.  Next I noticed red markers labeled MCR on trees.  I'm only now realizing what that stands for.  Perfect.  It can only help when the trail is marked.  As I continued the next markers were in both red and blue.  Okay.  There must be short side trails.  I entered at a red marker so that is what I will follow.  By the next marker it was yellow and blue.  Now I'm a bit confused.  Within the span of the next 15 minutes I saw either a combination or single markers of red, blue, green, orange and yellow.  And for the next hour I saw these combinations quite often.

A 5 mile trail run should take me at most 50 minutes, and that's if I'm taking it relatively easy.  I can see going off course here and there.  That will not add that much extra time or distance.  Let's just say I had a bit of trouble finding the full trail.

  
I basically ended up running the equivalent of the full trail on all the side trails before finally figuring it out.  Along this journey I also ended up back in the parking lot I parked in twice.  I eventually found out that I also passed both the starting point of the perimeter trail and the ending spot of the perimeter trail while trying to find that trail.  What actually saved me from giving up completely was a small map that looked like it was put in the ground by a local resident.  It had only the various trails shown on a piece of wood and a dot to indicate where you were standing.  I realized if I ran back and made a right I should be able to make another right to lead me to the long trail.  Sure enough there it was and sure enough I had passed it earlier.  When I left for the park I didn't realize there were multiple trails.  I didn't realize they were color coded and obviously I didn't know which color I was looking for.

When I finally ended up on the trail I needed I passed a couple who appeared to be combining bird watching and hiking.  At this point it was over an hour since I started.  I passed the same couple 45 minutes before this leading to turn off.  As I trotted along the man said, "Again?"  I knew what he meant but simply replied, "Again." I didn't have time to explain I've been going in various circles since the last time you saw me and this is not my second lap around the water.

I only need to see something once to know for the next time.  I will be back for sure.  The perimeter trail is actually quite easy to run.  Not as technical as the side trails that are more for hiking.  There are some surprisingly nice views especially from the back side of the trail.  Expect to see people.  Bird watching seemed to be quite common.  Word of advice.  There are two parking lots.  One at the visitor center (where I parked) and another down lower for boaters.  If you park at the lower lot it leads directly to the perimeter trail.  One more thing.  The trail is marked in black.  

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