The Eve

7:00 A.M. Saturday morning update for Christmas Eve.  Both the European and short range models show a burst of heavier snow and both have slightly increased totals.

4:00 P.M. Update:  This will be the last run of the day unless I decide to stay up late.  No big changes.  Couple of notes.  The temperature should rise once the snow begins so there is certainly a chance to see a mix or even plain rain late Sunday.  Points to the south could struggle to get much of anything.  With temperatures at or above freezing I don't expect many issues on the roads.

Radar below is for 11:00 tomorrow night.  Totals stay similar.  Euro model is about the same.  GFS pushes the totals a bit further north with our area staying under an inch.

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Snow or No

Even though I did not get a chance to post this week or last weekend after a fantastic Friday commute following an inch of snow and our third snow of the week, I should have at least taken screen images of the upcoming weather.

There is a reason you have to be patient with these storms.  A week and a half ago the idea of a Christmas snowstorm in our area was gaining steam.  A few days later and it looked like Christmas could again approach 60 degrees.  Then the models wavered.  Now it is pretty clear the cold air will win out and all across the area should anticipate the white stuff come Christmas morning.

Let's back track a bit before talking about the upcoming snow for our area.  At one time the indication was the storms track would favor the middle part of the country and cut north allowing for the warm flow to be well out ahead.  That clearly changed if you take a look at the current watches and warnings which start at the PA/NY border and continue north in every state.  Much of New York and New England will deal with anything from snow to ice and rain from now through Christmas.  So if you are traveling north good luck.

Tomorrow is a straight ahead rain event for the area with a bit of back end snow well to the west.  The map below will show snow totals through tomorrow.

Possible to see some wet flakes toward the end but all in all not a big snow event.

Then we get into Sunday.  A relatively weak system will pass by with a mix of rain and snow to the south and lighter snow to the north.  Once it passes us to the north it will intensify albeit slightly and enhance the chance of snow.  Radar image below.

More of a New England event but still snow for our area especially north and northeast.

Below are the predicted totals from the Weather Service as of tonight.

With the last few snow events coming as a bit of a surprise in the sense that we were not predicted to get much of anything, I think the map above is already accurate 48 hours in advance.  This event has been consistently showing up on each run with consistent totals.  It's really not worth guessing anymore so with an event like this I'm not going to predict a different total than above.

While snows like these can certainly be a pain for those out visiting family or going to church, the good news is the weekend will be warmer than it has been which should limit the amount of sticking on roads.  It will also greatly increase the chance that some will wake up to a white Christmas.


I'm never a fan of jumping too far ahead especially when there is already one event on the horizon, but in some cases we should at least acknowledge then let things play out.  There is what would be considered a major snowstorm showing up on the model runs for the end of next week.  The best thing to do at this time is enjoy the holiday and reevaluate early next week. 

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First Clipper

With the weather being as cold as it has been over the past few days the snow that fell last night was light and fluffy.  Good news for the many morning commuters as roads were generally in good shape.  Snow totals tended to range higher as you went north.  I used the old eyeball test to note somewhere around three inches this morning yet I could see the top of the grass when I got to work.  In fact, as the sun came out today most of the snow where I work had melted.  When I took a pit stop at the Moravian Bookstore tonight, even the walkways were still completely covered.  No safe way to run tonight.

Here is the best snow total map I could find.

Light Blue = 1 inch (Reading)
Medium Blue = 2 inches (Allentown)
Blue = 3 inches (Northern Northampton County)
Dark Blue = 4 inches

Looking Ahead


We should remain quiet this weekend.  Should being the key word.  There is a system moving out to sea to our south which could give southern New Jersey an inch or two.  Flashback to last weekend when we thought we were not going to get much and ended up with the most snow.  Not likely in this instance but take notice.  Best chance of snow is south and east of Allentown.

The big question leading into next week will be how active is the pattern as we approach Christmas.  Not close enough to talk about yet but clearly a reason I am bringing this up now.

Random note:  The past three December's failed to hit once inch of snow.  We currently sit at 6.8 inches with half the month to go.  Average is about 5 inches.

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A Nice Surprise

There would be no way of knowing that a heavier band of snow would form from an area that ran through central Berks and Lehigh counties, but that's what happened during the first snow event of the season yesterday.  Many locations across the area came in between 5 and 8 inches which also happen to be some of the highest for the storm in our region.

I'll get this out of the way now and address later if anything changes.  My one concern during snowstorms is getting an accurate measurement which is why I rely on official weather stations at the airport in Allentown or Philadelphia.  These are the totals that will be in the books for years to come.  I've often complained that the station at Reading seems completely inaccurate.  This then forces locals to report their own measurements.  Needless to say that can be complicated for some storms, however there are many people who do it the right way and I'm sure many others who do not.  I say this all because Allentown (as of now) officially reports 4.9 inches.  That seems questionable.  Here is why.

The airport is north of downtown and west of Bethlehem.  This area is where the heavier band was sitting.  When I cleaned my car off last night I had no doubt we were sitting at roughly six inches.  The group at EPAWA in South Allentown reported a final total of 6.1 inches which verifies my estimate.  Take a look at the reported totals for Lehigh County.

Regardless of social media or trained spotters the one total that makes the least sense is the one at the airport.  Areas north, south, west and east of the airport all reported between 6 and 7.5 inches.  My only conclusion is the total is wrong.  Unless something changes the official total will stay at 4.9 inches.

Good way to start off the season when you get more snow than expected.  Next opportunity which is looking pretty good at the moment is Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  As of now this looks to be a bigger event for areas to the north.  I could see a range of 1-2 inches in our area depending on where you are.

Now for some select pictures for the snowfall from December 9th taken during my run.

   

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