2017 Ends - 2018 Begins

When it comes to 2017 we were warmer and wetter than normal.  Here are some of the numbers.

Warmest Month = July  75.6 degrees

Wettest Month = August  8.45 inches

Coldest Month = December   31.6 degrees

Snowiest Month = March  18.3 inches

Total Precipitation = 49.77 inches

Average Temperature = 53.6 degrees

Aside from the average temperature and warmest month there are quite a few unusual numbers here.  December is a big surprise for coldest month as is March for snowiest.  These really should be going to January or February.  August is generally not that wet and isn't even in the top five wettest months.  The past three years had a total of six and a half inches in August combined.  July has averaged 6.1 inches over four years.  Hitting 50 inches of precipitation is not normal.  We average somewhere in the lower 40's.

Weather is constantly changing.  You have to expect weird things to happen.  For me the close of a year gives me a chance to look back at how many miles I got in.  This past year I felt a little lazy.  Perhaps that was because I backed off the running a bit.  Even still I put more miles in biking and running this year than ever before.  Luckily Strava puts together a video for your yearly review. 

Into 2018

Maybe it is the new year that leads me to be a little different on the first.  Or maybe it is a tradition I cannot break.  I looked back at my activities on January 1st since I started keeping track.  Here is what I found.

It started normal in 2014.  I went for a jog in my Muhlenberg neighborhood that lasted 3.99 miles.  This is a clear indication I never look at distance when I run.  Then things started to get a bit odd.

On January 1st, 2015 I went for a 15 mile run at Blue Marsh.  That ended up being the longest run I did in all of 2015.

In 2016 I went for a 4.84 mile run at 12:01 a.m.  For reference the temperature at that time was 38 degrees.  Not bad for a late night run in January.

In 2017 I went for a 30 mile bike ride in the morning and followed up with a 7.8 mile run in the afternoon.  A day of both running and biking is very rare for me.  And I've never put in anywhere close to 40 miles total.

That brings us to 2018.  Time to bring back the midnight run?  No.  The answer was simple and had nothing to do with the cold.  When I did it in 2016 it was a Friday night.  Easy to get the sleep schedule back on track with the rest of the weekend.  This year the next day is a work night and if running at midnight at best you get to sleep at two in the morning.  I had a different idea.

The coldest temperature I can recall running in was during a 5k in 2014 when the temperature was 14 degrees.  I still have a picture from the event because of how cold it was.  We are obviously in a cold stretch right now.  I figured I could run in something colder and there is no colder part of the day than the morning.

I went to bed at a normal time and prepared to get up for a morning run.  The first thing that strikes you is how dark it is early.  The sun doesn't rise until close to 7:30.  This is also usually the coldest part of the night since the sun has been down for the longest amount of time.  I waited a little longer than I expected, but I wasn't going to pass up the cold. 



As you can see above I started at 6:26 a.m. almost exactly an hour before the sun came up.  Oddly enough I didn't see anybody else out running.  Oh well.  I did my standard loop being mindful of potential icy spots and keeping in well lit areas.  One might wonder what the conditions are like at that time of the day.  Glad you asked.  The day before I found a site that shows local weather conditions based on standard backyard weather stations.  Just so happens there is somebody three blocks from me connected to the site through their personal station.  Here is what was recorded at the time I started.

At almost the exact second I left the temperature read 4.3 degrees.  Dew point is basically the equivalent to wind chill.  Easily beats my previous record of 14 degrees.  I personally find cold temperatures to be fairly similar once you get below 20 so I can't say it was any different than a normal cold winter run.  I'm sure when it comes to exposed skin there is a difference.  When I got back to my building I noticed another first when it comes to cold running that stuck with me through my elevator ride back to my floor.  This is what my winter hat looked like.

Not sure the science behind it but the entire hat should be the dark blue color you see in the middle towards the top.  It is almost like the heat escaping through my head was freezing back on to my hat.

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Let's Dance

The 1.2 inches Saturday means the official total did not get to 10 inches for the month.  Still we are above average.  The heaviest precip was south of the valley where some places hit three inches.  I can never pass up an opportunity to get out in the snow.  Maybe I should live in Erie.  I did learn something though.  If you ever have your phone outside on a hot day the phone will eventually shut off if the device gets too hot.  Well the same thing happens in the cold.  At the four mile turn around I took my phone out and the screen went black.

Speaking of Erie the snow continues to pile up.  When I last touched base on Erie they had received 53 inches of snow in 30 hours between Christmas and the following morning.  Since then they have managed to add another 29.3 inches.  That puts the total for the month at 121.3 inches.  Previously the most snow they ever had in one month was 66 inches.  Part of what makes these numbers so incredible is because of the banding, you do not have to go very far outside the city to see the numbers drop quickly.  The city just happened to be in the bullseye.  It will be interesting to see how much they end up getting for the season and how record breaking that could be.  Hitting 200 inches for a major city would be icing on the cake.

The big story this week besides the plunging temperatures will be the question of a coastal storm.  That question comes up a lot for our area during the winter.  This one is unique because it is basically coming up straight from the south.  The European model has continually trended slightly west albeit slightly.  If it continues that trend there might be a story.  As of this morning here are the predicted totals to give you an idea of how close this is to the coast.

Atlantic City = 8 inches
Allentown = 2 inches
New York = 2 inches
Harrisburg = 0 inches

Even New England misses the big event as it strengthens near Maine and unloads in Canada.

The GFS isn't buying into any of this as of now except that the storm strengthens once past the U.S.  At this point these models are having trouble agreeing on a few things.  One model has an all rain event for the second potential system next week and the other has all snow.  That's a pretty big difference.  So now we play the back and forth game until this system arrives Wednesday night.  All I can say at this point is the further east you are the better the chance you see accumulating snow.

I'll post a 2017 recap later today. 

 

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Single Digits

Driving home through the little town of Bethlehem got we wondering.  The side streets were clearly and recently sprayed with salt in perfectly straight lines as if a snowstorm was coming.  Maybe something changed in the forecast.  Going back to last Friday I did mention there was a threat of a snowstorm this week.  I left it at that since there is never a reason to get ahead of yourself in winter.  I mainly use the idea of a storm to see how active the pattern could be.  Sure enough basically every storm scenario for the week fell apart except for the small disturbance Saturday.

There is a chance of some flurries tomorrow if that is important to you.  And when I say flurries I mean in very select areas and literally some flurries.  Then we move on to Saturday.  The system moving through is working with a lot of dry air and not much in terms of fuel.  It seems likely at this point it will snow during the day at least briefly.  In terms of what to expect I would put it this way.  Expect very light snow in all senses of the word light.  Expect at most an inch, likely less.  Do not expect issues.  The temperatures are clearly very cold right now.  This is the type of snow that will blow off the roads as soon as a car passes. 

It is certainly possible to get some higher totals in specific areas.  I'm not overly convinced that happens.  If Allentown can squeeze out 1.6 inches we will hit 10 for the month.  Not that interesting compared to other areas (looking at you Erie), but it has only happened once in the last seven winters.

Temps

Tough break for those coming home for the holidays that live in warmer areas.  This is an unusually cold week and will extend through the first week of January.  I don't have a large sample size, but the last three winters did not have any lows in the single digits during December.  We should get there at least twice.  Also going to be tough for anybody planning on spending 2017 into 2018 outdoors.  Both the low and high temp should be about 20 degrees below normal.  Keep that in mind if you are bar crawling or one of those weirdos that goes running in the middle of the night.  Locally Allentown is the only place I know of that has outdoor activities that lead up to midnight which includes fireworks.  Can't imagine it will be crowded downtown this year.

Upcoming

Going to continue to reiterate this every time for the rest of the winter... I hate to jump ahead.  One model is currently showing the potential for a storm next week.  When you talk storms with potential for large snow amounts word can spread fast online.  File it away and we will discuss later. 

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Crushing Records

Christmas of 2017 will officially go down as a white Christmas for Allentown and many other nearby locations.  Further south, not quite as lucky.  Further north and you were dealing with a blizzard.  Further northwest and, well, the lake effect machine can be a beast.  If you live along Lake Erie or Ontario you know what you are getting into.

These two lakes tend to draw the most discussion or interest and for good reason.  For starters there are many large cities impacted by lake events such as Cleveland (suburbs), Erie, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse.  All these cities are home to over 100,000 people.  Most of these areas average somewhere between 90 and 120 inches of snow a year which is far greater than any other major city.  Erie and Ontario can also be distinguished by the west to east length of the lake.  With cold westerly winds driving across that type of distance, bands can set up for hours or even days over the same locations.  None of this is news.  This is an every year event and in some cases an all winter event.  I tend to not spend much time on lake effect unless something unusual happens.  Something unusual happened.

Hello Erie.  While many spent time yesterday visiting with family, eating too much unhealthy food or trying to rest from a long day, people in the northwestern part of Pennsylvania received a very interesting gift.  Erie broke their one day snowfall record for any day by receiving 34 inches of snow on Christmas.  The city must have been extra nice this year because the snow didn't stop by midnight either.  Over the next six hours they added another 19 inches bringing the total snowfall in 30 hours to 53 inches.  Let me say that once more.  A city of 100,000 people received 53 inches of snow in 30 hours.  That's impressive.  I highlight the population because things like this happen in other areas that are home to hundreds maybe thousands of people.  This is a major city.  Wait there is more.

The city is currently under a Lake Effect Snow Warning through tomorrow afternoon for an additional 1 to 2 feet.  They might catch a break by Thursday before the snow will resume Friday and continue into the weekend.

By the end of the day Erie will either be just under or slightly over 100 inches of snow for the month.  The month.  That is their average for the year.  This isn't even normal for lake effect standards.   

I'll continue to monitor the situation in Erie.  I've included the link from the Weather Channel story which provides more info, video and pictures.  My favorite bit of info is the 13 day snow record was broken by an event that lasted 36 hours.

Take a look.

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