It Snowed

Mark it down.  January 12th.  That's how long it took before we saw measurable snow.  The snow, which resembled a thunderstorm line, moved in quickly with high winds and dumped a total of 0.3 inches in Allentown.  Other places fared slightly better however when we are talking less than an inch does it really matter? 

Like most winters we continue to look at the next possibility.  And like most winters things for us change constantly. 

You can scroll down to my January 7th post where I show what the model projected 10 days out.  That date would have been January 17th.  Below is what will actually happen.  Only Downeast Maine will see substantial snowfall and even that will be minor compared to a typical coastal storm.  It's actually that low in Canada that is part of the problem.  Plus the storm is moving very quickly.  Considering the model had a storm for the area 10 days ago and sure enough there is a storm, I at least feel comfortable using the models as guidance.

LOOKING AHEAD


I'd expect to see very light snow or flurries anytime between Sunday and Tuesday especially as you go north.  The low coming up the coast on Sunday still appears to be a miss for everybody in our region so no bother posting it.  The Euro was the only one hanging on and even that one gave up.

The next image is for next weekend.  It once again shows some sort of potential.  Right now this seems completely unorganized.  With the way the pattern has been going and string of odd events (see Hurricane Alex) I would not even bother looking this far ahead.  Euro keeps this far to the south which evokes the next fear for snow lovers is the potential for a southern pattern.

If you look at total snow output over the next 10 days you would not be very excited unless you really do not like snow.  It amounts to little more than a dusting.  You can see higher numbers to the south in relation to the above storm.  If you went even further south the numbers would be in the double digits.

The Euro is even less convinced.  I wasn't going to post the 10 day snowfall off that model but it's too funny not to.  Can anybody spot the Snow Hole?

This is what I can say.  If you work a Monday-Friday job I wouldn't be very concerned about your commute this upcoming week. 

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Advisory # 2

So I did a little calculation after my evening run tonight.  Turns out I live roughly 500 yards away from the Northampton County border.  Which means that in certain situations like the one above, I technically do not live in the area under an advisory.  If you look at Lehigh County you will notice a small section juts into Northampton County.  Within that little appendage I live about as far to the bottom and the right as you can get.  The image below should help.

If I look out my window while standing in my kitchen I see Fountain Hill and the hospital located in Lehigh County.  While I sit on my couch I see Northampton County.  That's how close the line is.  Luckily for me I get to then experience all sorts of weather since it's common knowledge weather is bounded by imaginary lines.  This advisory in place is just to be cautious.  Aside from higher elevations I don't see there being much wintry weather.

I didn't expect any this morning either.  As I watched out my window I noticed a bank of fog hovering over Lehigh.  It was sort of odd.  When I got to my parking lot it was misting which caught me a bit by surprise.  I got in the car and turned the wipers on to clear the light coat of water, and I turned the windshield into a thin layer of ice.  Okay.  So off I went not thinking much of it.  The mist continued lightly.  I again hit the wipers and again instant layer of ice.  This was new.  It only lasted a few miles before I cleared the cloud.  Turns out the temperature was 31 degrees.  Having just got into my car it wasn't warm enough to melt the water.  So all my wipers were doing were spreading little drops of mist onto the rest of the windshield like cake icing and freezing it.  Can't say I recall that before.

Storm Update # 1:  Shockingly the latest model has the storm missing us and going off the coast.  There is the update.  Keep waiting and watching to see what happens.

** In other news I am officially putting the word out there that the chances of seeing accumulating snow next week are on the rise.  It's nothing even remotely significant but enough to be measurable and coat the ground with some of the white stuff.

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Still Waiting

After almost 120 inches of snow in the past two winters we approach the midpoint of January without a single tenth of an inch recorded.  I don't know what the record is for deepest date into a season before the first snowfall is measured but I feel we have to be either past it or really close.

If you go back to the summer or early fall our lack of snow and cold weather wouldn't be much of a surprise.  It had been predicted that the first part of winter or the November to December time period would be warmer than normal due to the strong El Nino.  I doubt most believed it would be as warm as it has over a large part of the country.  The real question was the second half of winter or specifically the late January to early March time period where many suggested winter would hit hard.  Since seeing staggeringly warm temperatures in December, which I will get to in a future post, Allentown has seen lows of 10 or below three times in the first six days of January.  No doubt a sign of a change in pattern.  And I always say weather is all about patterns.

Part of the reason for the change is the trough that is building in the west that lets the colder arctic air sink in.  If you can add some blocking in the north Atlantic you begin to see potential for coastal storms.  There are hints that this is starting to take shape.  The system this weekend is cutting north well to the west of our region which allows warmer air to ride out ahead of the precipitation.  This is and has almost always been since the models first picked up on the system a rain maker.  There could be a period of brief snow further to the north at the end.

I normally check the model runs out once a day.  Sometimes I spend five minutes looking them over and other times when something might be brewing I could spend an hour.  It's less about seeing what is going to happen as it is seeing trends.  That's why I didn't start this post with the following image off the latest model.  It's also why I wouldn't sound the alarms or start banging the drums.

Specifically this is the forecast run for exactly 10 days from now.  The model doesn't go out any further.  What this means is a matter of opinion.  This is my blog so I'll give mine.  I don't care much about the actual image.  It's too far out to mean anything.  The fact that this storm shows up at all makes me believe we are on the verge of an even bigger change that could lead to snowfalls or at least potential snowstorms.  The other thing that is at the least intriguing is regardless of what happens with this storm I can't ever recall seeing a model project this type of intensity of snow in our region.  That is an absolute blizzard of record book proportions.  This is the last image taken in the run so we don't even see the next window.  Put it this way, if this image was for a storm tomorrow you'd be seeing 20-30 inches.  Since it's for 10 days from now we have just as good a chance to see zero as we do 20.

At least it is something to follow. 

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After Midnight

Cue Eric Clapton...

I'm not much of a new year celebrator.  I don't find it all that different from any other day with the exception that for the next few weeks I will on occasion incorrectly write down the previous year.  I wasn't sure what I wanted to do this year.  I could make my way to the South Side and partake in one of the various musical celebrations.  That would involve driving which I really preferred to avoid.  I could stay in the Main Street area popping into different venues.  Or maybe I could do none of the above.

I always had the thought that it would be cool to go running as soon as the clock hit 12.  I never actually did it.  It hardly seemed like the greatest idea when you live in more rural areas with few sidewalks, dark streets and drivers who I rightly can assume might have been imbibing earlier and never expect to see someone jogging on the road.  The thought didn't cross my mind this year until I noticed in the paper, that day, all the events taking place in my area.  If bars and restaurants were going to stay open late then all of the town would still be quite lively even after midnight.  Might be on to something now.

I had gone to work early New Year's Eve (to get out early) and stayed out and up a bit later than normal the night before.  If the plan was to at least make it to midnight and possibly run I was at least going to see how I'd feel as the night progressed.  There would be no strolling around town.  With a few hours to go before 12 I started playing some music to get me in the mood.  It worked quite well.  There was no doubt about my plan now.

Earlier in the day with the idea of going for a run on my mind I tried to guess how many times I would have a car horn honked at me or someone yell out a window.  It happens when there isn't a holiday.  There would only be one way to find out.  I put on my reflective vest and favorite shorts, of course shorts, and headed out.

I made it all of one block before I was greeted by a parade of children and adults walking down Prospect blowing kazoo's and wearing party hats.  This was going to be fun.  It was then on to Broad.  I passed Main Street with little fanfare as most of the action remained inside.  Sometime around Center Street I startled an older gentleman who seemed a bit out of it as he walked on the sidewalk.  I had noticed him a block before I approached as he tried to get the attention of someone else across the street.  He gave a drunken apology as I passed after I believe he might have attempted a roundhouse.  Then it was over the Minsi and passed the casino which was quite busy with traffic.  I stayed down on 2nd before going up to the Hill to Hill.  From there I stayed on the bridge into Main Street which seemed pretty quiet by that time before heading up Spring.

The finally tally was unexpected.  1 car horn.  That was it.  At one point I was starting to hope for some horns.  The only police car I saw zoomed past me with no interest at all I was running at 12:30 am.  I didn't have a single drop of alcohol that night just in case I would be questioned.  Now the real kicker.  I passed six other runners.  6.  Runner runners.  Not people who left the bar in jeans and decided to run down the block.  I had even looked earlier for any groups going out but didn't find any.

Not likely to register another line like this anytime soon.

      

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