Last Saturday the major winter storm on the east coast was forecast to miss us to the south and then east. It shifted north and west giving us just enough snow for me to get out and enjoy.
This weekend the major winter storm is to our west. The forecast suggested the front end of it would cut across along the PA-MD border, likely giving some light snow and mixing in certain areas. The best chance was in the southern part of the region where advisories were posted in Lancaster and York. Then the initial pocket of snow approached and it was to the north between the Lehigh Valley and Wilkes-Barre. I had a decision to make. I could have given my legs a rest which was the plan. However, I cannot pass up a day of snow especially when my area was getting it and areas 30 miles away were not.
Hit the trail, two bridges, casino, Steel Stacks, South Side, North Side, Main Street and Broad Street. This by the way was the alternative to my original plan which was to go up and over South Mountain. That would have involved intersections, side walks and on the mountain, running on the streets. In a moderate snow that did not seem like the safest choice. And I even had on long pants. But no hat or gloves. I like to feel one with the snow.
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Well this
could be interesting. One of the bonuses of the NFL playoffs is getting
to watch teams, especially in northern locations, play in less than desirable
conditions. Bitter cold or heavy snow always make for a good story
line. Ice on the other hand does not.
The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.
At least that is what the schedule says. There is only one small problem
that nobody could have anticipated. Kansas City is one of the many cities
in the central portion of the U.S. that is under an Ice Storm Warning.
Not only that, the warning for Kansas City begins Friday morning and ends at
midnight on Monday.
This is going to be a major event that is not seen every winter. To get
the type of accumulations they are expecting in the mid-west you have to have
all the ingredients come together. This one has it. Loads of
moisture, a collision of warm air from the gulf and cold air from the north and
worst of all a long duration.
Below is the current forecast for ice amounts through Sunday night.
That's a massive problem.
The Weather Channel shows the potential ice storm and potential outcomes.
There are instances when people tend to think the media is hyping up an event. This isn't one of them. And quite frankly, there have been plenty of instances over the past two weeks when there have been chances to go crazy. I haven't even had the chance to discuss the mountains of snow that has been piling up in the west. Most of those places are in the mountains though where that kind of weather isn't that uncommon. This type of event only brings problems.
If I'm the NFL I strongly consider at the very least changing the time of this game if not the date. Sunday is the tail end of the event so I'm not sure pushing it off to the night is going to work. The damage will have been done by then with crews maybe getting a chance on Sunday afternoon to start accessing the damage. The real reason I consider a change is for the fans. Not only will they have to worry about getting to the game, but more importantly they will be worrying about their own homes with possible damage from falling trees and the lack of electricity for an extended time. I know there are likely issues with the amount of time off before the next game but if I have a call, my vote would be to move this to Monday night when the warm air wins out.
Kickoff Forecast:
Saturday:
7:30 AM: Tottenham vs West Brom (NBC Sports) - 37 degrees, Sunny, Winds 10 MPH
10:00 AM: Swansea vs. Arsenal (NBC Sports) - 42 degrees, Partly Cloudy, 15 MPH
10:00 AM: West Ham vs. Crystal Palace (CNBC) - 39 degrees, Sunny, Winds 10MPH
12:30 PM: Leicester vs. Chelsea (NBC) - 34 degrees, Partly Cloudy, Winds 10MPH
Sunday:
8:30 AM: Everton vs. Manchester City (NBC Sports) - 47 degrees, Rain Showers
11:00 AM: Manchester United vs. Liverpool (NBC Sports) - 46 degrees, Cloudy
Some very solid matches heading into the weekend. Can't rule out some interesting weather either. Much of England has been dealing with cold temperatures and snowfall. I don't expect any issues with any of the games above as fields are designed to handle snowfall. Only issues could be with road conditions, again for supporters and traveling teams.
Weekend snowstorms offer numerous possibilities. I had considered some options or at the very least did research. Needless to say, there is a lot that goes into making a decision to travel for a snowstorm. In an instance like this the best of the worst conditions were predicted to be in an area that was a decent distance to the south or deep into New England. In my mind it shaped up to be a Cape May to Cape Cod storm. I went long into Friday night looking at the maps and forecast totals. Eventually I came up with a back up plan to avoid going far to the north or the south. By early Saturday morning I was back looking at the maps. There had been a consistent shift north and west and now it was looking like we would actually see snow. That made it pretty easy.
My enjoyment has more to do with watching it snow and less about the actual amount. I'd like to see a good coastal snow at the beach at some point. Just like I would be interested in being stationed under a lake effect snow band as it comes down at three inches an hour. I'll save it for another weekend. As the snow moved in this morning I quickly changed gears to get ready for a run. Since the heavier snow was further east, that would be the direction I would go.
Along the river past Freemansburg.
Eventually I reached my turn around spot at the boat launch. You can see the bridge for route 33 in the distance.
Over two hours and 15 miles later I returned. It snowed the entire time. Within 30 minutes of my return it had stopped.
While our immediate area has missed out on any sizable snowfall over the past month, in actuality the Lehigh Valley is right at average. Even I had trouble believing it. It's because all the little amounts are adding up. For instance, without including today, Allentown has recorded measurable snow on 12 days this winter (last season it was 9 all winter). The average snowfall for November and December is around 6 inches. Allentown recorded 5.3. Not bad considering there was 0.0 inches recorded last year and the first inch of the season wasn't recorded until January 22nd which I think we all remember that one.
Speaking of that historic event, my next post will be a 2016 weather review that will be sure to recap that storm.
It occurred to me this morning that in order to make it in
your own business (not that I'm trying) you have to find a niche or untapped market. We’ve seen it recently in the weather
community either on a local level or a nation level. Websites target specific areas. Local television has weather on wheels with
the newest technology and cameras mounted to anything. Weather chasing has become a career for some
no matter if it is hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or winter storms. We can’t all be like a Jim Cantore, but even
these few who are placed in the path of bad weather will only stand in the
elements while the camera is rolling before finding shelter in a hotel or
vehicle. So after spending an hour
outside this morning and seeing absolutely nobody, maybe I’ve found my own
market of the few people who take on any condition.
It’s no big secret I’m not shy when it comes to tackling the
outdoors no matter what. My plan was to
run this morning, hopefully in a light snow.
And run I did. Except the light
snow was a heavy sleet. Oh well. Not my first sleet run of the winter
season. I headed for the Lehigh canal
trail to keep me off the streets. On a
normal day there would be runners, walkers and bike riders. Today it was me and some geese.
Watching a train pass the Steel Stacks next to the river with sleet raining down and not a person in sight is a great way to begin a weekend morning. But onto the weather report.
What started out as heavy sleet, on top of about a half an inch of snow, turned into a mix of sleet and rain (freezing) about half way through my seven mile run. Now here is where we can get into a weather discussion. One thing I probably mention every time I talk about freezing rain is that this terminology describes plain old rain that freezes to surfaces that are colder than 32 degrees. It can be incredibly deceiving to hear and see. Usually the air at the surface is below 32 but the air a few hundred feet up is warmer. There isn't enough time for the transition back to snow or sleet by the time it reaches the surface so the water freezes on contact. And because of my lengthy stay outside we can show just how easily this happens.
Obviously I didn't spend the overnight hours outside in the 20 degree air. Also as a living creature my body is already giving off warmth especially while doing physical activities. Needless to say there is going to be a good amount of warmth surrounding myself. Yet after 40 minutes I stopped to take this picture of the front straps of my pack that sit directly on my chest where the rain hits.
Always a unique occurrence for me when your own items start to freeze.
I'm certainly not the only one who was out today. It happened that nobody else was on the trail at 8:00 in the morning or earlier because there were no footprints. Some might go out later or others were in a different part of town. But it got me thinking of all the others times I've been out in less than desirable conditions.
Like that time in Pittsburgh when I began my trek from downtown to the lookouts on Mount Washington. It was misty, overcast, with fog rolling in along the river and temperatures at maybe 50. I think I passed one runner and that was in the city. Not exactly the view I was hoping for.
Or the time earlier this year when the area got the biggest snowfall in recorded history with over 30 inches falling. By the time I got out there had to be about 20 inches and was so bad I couldn't get my legs up high enough out of the snow to move forward.
This was me on the trail with snow just below my knees followed by Church and Main Streets. (Click to enlarge pictures.)
Maybe it's time for a new name for this site. Something that focuses more on the people like me who play in this weather and less on the maps and graphs.
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