The Winter Checklist

Every year around late October or early November I start mentally preparing myself for the best season of the year.  With that preparation comes my standard checklist of events that take place as we officially get into winter in our area.

• Drop to 32 degrees
• Locate the word snow in short-term forecast
• Find first snowflakes of the season (if need be drive to colder climate or higher elevation)
• See snowfall in home city/town
• Record first accumulating snow

Accumulating snow is my signal that winter begins.  Everything else is the lead up.  Since winter is dependent upon where you live, I focus less on dates and more on conditions.  Each year is unique in some way as I'm sure this one will be too.

It would be understandable that before today I posted little about winter.  The October numbers came in and sure enough, it was warm.  In fact the average temperature in October was warmer than May.  For comparison here are the differences in average temperature between May and October over the past three years.

2014:  May + 5.7 degrees
2015:  May + 13 degrees
2016:  May + 5.2 degrees

And as far as that checklist goes?  We (Allentown) have yet to check the very first item on that list.  This would normally happen in October with a day that begins with a 2.  Instead we will be a week into November.  But wait.  What is that I see floating down from the sky today as I walk through the halls in the office?  It can't be could it?  I didn't see anything in the forecast.  Sure enough mixed with that cold rain and sleet pellets were snowflakes.  Wasn't even a matter of discussion.  I even opened the door to step out to make sure.  Guess we are skipping straight ahead.  Next stop the accumulating snow.  And just for good measure I found this little map from NOAA when I got home.  The first "snow map"of the season.

We continue the skipping ahead trend with the weather this week.  The high and low temperature for Friday would be more common with temperatures in mid January.  If the high does indeed only reach the 30's on Friday, the first ten days of November will see highs in the 70's, 60's, 50's, 40's and 30's.  Again to put this in perspective in 2015 and 2016 the highs in the first 10 days were all 50 or above. 

It's this type of weather that leads me to believe winter is only going to get harder and harder to predict.

Remember the winter of 2015-16?  We didn't get accumulating snow until January 12th which I believe was the record for deepest date into a winter season without getting snowfall.  Then we received 31.9 inches in one storm.  Take away that storm and we totaled a whopping 4.3 inches.

Or last year.  We had more snow in March then all the other months combined. 

Winter snowfall forecasting is a massive guessing game.  I might be in the minority this year, but put me down for an above average snowfall season.  More to come later.
 

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First Frost

On the checklist to winter the first frost is certainly near the top.  So is the first nighttime low of 32 degrees or colder.  We can cross out first frost advisory.  Getting to 32 will likely have to wait.

I did some checking on my personal weather database and found the first dates we hit 32 over the past three years.

2014:  October 20th
2015:  October 18th
2016:  October 26th

If we do not hit 32 tonight it is possible we won't get there until November.  This has been one of those falls where the warmth hangs on.  I'll do a recap of the month once it ends, but we good easily end up with an average high above 70.

With the running festival coming up in a few days I'm reminded about some of those crisp mornings in the past.  This will be my third straight year of doing the hat trick or in this case the grand slam.  The weather looks nice which seems to be a theme for this event.  The morning runs on both Saturday and Sunday should be in the mid 40's to around 50 with sunshine.  The Friday trail run should be sunny and about 70.  Hard to complain.  I'd prefer cooler weather all around.  Upper 30's and sunshine suits me well.  

In October of 2015 both weekend days had temperatures in the 30's including that first below 32 day mentioned above on the 18th.  It was perfect running weather on two of the coolest days of that time period.

In 2016 it was more of the same.  Both days were sunny and started out in the 30's.  Odd how it works out sometimes. 

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Merrill Creek Réservoir

Well this turned into the typical RD weekend day.  In case you have not noticed I was not that active over the spring and summer.  Though an announcement is not necessary I can confirm the inactivity will continue in months without an "R".  Winter is back people.  At least for the Weather Service.  The official start of the new season began September 15th.  Most of the country will have to wait for snow, but some places have already opened up their winter account including Denver who picked up 3.2 inches this week then hit a high of 77.  There are currently no advisories up anywhere in the country so winter not exactly coming in with a bang.

When I woke this morning I had no plans for the day.  Not a surprise.  With a week to go before the running festival that will feature four different races and a marathons worth of running in 48 hours, I would normally keep any running activity light.  When I saw the low clouds and wet conditions I figured I would have to get something in today.  I could do a short loop around town.  Not very exciting.  My second thought was to do the route over South Mountain.  Seems a bit much before an event.  Plus in town runs are part of my weekly after work routine.  I would rather see something different. 

I had researched the Merrill Creek Reservoir before.  The area is not far across the PA/NJ border.  A 5 mile trail loop extends around the perimeter.  Thanks to Strava and others who had done the run before I was able to get a feel for what to expect in terms of elevation.  Not much change.  The Blue Marsh loop had once been my go to for trail runs.  This would be a little flashback.

Trail systems are not always the easiest to follow especially on your first visit.  I've had my issues before.  This one seemed basic.  It was a loop around a lake.  It was actually so basic I had considered taking regular running shoes.  Good thing I changed my mind.  Upon beginning the route I noticed a few things.  For starters the trail was more technical than I had anticipated.  It was actually quite rocky.  Remember that morning mist and fog?  What time of year is it?  Wet rocks covered in wet leaves is always a recipe for potential problems.  Maybe I didn't completely think this through.  Last thing you are looking for in an injury on a simple trail run.  Next I noticed red markers labeled MCR on trees.  I'm only now realizing what that stands for.  Perfect.  It can only help when the trail is marked.  As I continued the next markers were in both red and blue.  Okay.  There must be short side trails.  I entered at a red marker so that is what I will follow.  By the next marker it was yellow and blue.  Now I'm a bit confused.  Within the span of the next 15 minutes I saw either a combination or single markers of red, blue, green, orange and yellow.  And for the next hour I saw these combinations quite often.

A 5 mile trail run should take me at most 50 minutes, and that's if I'm taking it relatively easy.  I can see going off course here and there.  That will not add that much extra time or distance.  Let's just say I had a bit of trouble finding the full trail.

  
I basically ended up running the equivalent of the full trail on all the side trails before finally figuring it out.  Along this journey I also ended up back in the parking lot I parked in twice.  I eventually found out that I also passed both the starting point of the perimeter trail and the ending spot of the perimeter trail while trying to find that trail.  What actually saved me from giving up completely was a small map that looked like it was put in the ground by a local resident.  It had only the various trails shown on a piece of wood and a dot to indicate where you were standing.  I realized if I ran back and made a right I should be able to make another right to lead me to the long trail.  Sure enough there it was and sure enough I had passed it earlier.  When I left for the park I didn't realize there were multiple trails.  I didn't realize they were color coded and obviously I didn't know which color I was looking for.

When I finally ended up on the trail I needed I passed a couple who appeared to be combining bird watching and hiking.  At this point it was over an hour since I started.  I passed the same couple 45 minutes before this leading to turn off.  As I trotted along the man said, "Again?"  I knew what he meant but simply replied, "Again." I didn't have time to explain I've been going in various circles since the last time you saw me and this is not my second lap around the water.

I only need to see something once to know for the next time.  I will be back for sure.  The perimeter trail is actually quite easy to run.  Not as technical as the side trails that are more for hiking.  There are some surprisingly nice views especially from the back side of the trail.  Expect to see people.  Bird watching seemed to be quite common.  Word of advice.  There are two parking lots.  One at the visitor center (where I parked) and another down lower for boaters.  If you park at the lower lot it leads directly to the perimeter trail.  One more thing.  The trail is marked in black.  

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The Caboose

The classic after-hockey-game weather post for the upcoming system.  I might have mentioned it before or maybe not, but we were in line for a train of storms. This is the final storm in the parade of four that the models picked up almost two weeks ago.  Two of the first three were hits.  It's starting to look like the fourth will be a success as well.  I must say, even though the models don't always lock in on totals, they have done very well in picking up storms.

The one on Friday into Saturday is going to be tricky.  The onset is likely to see snow north of Reading, followed by a mix and then plain rain as the freezing line retreats north.  The system redevelops off the coast and brings both moisture and the colder air back south.  The question will be how far south and how far inland.  A few days ago places from CT to MA would have been in line to get potentially another half foot.  Now take a look at the GFS prediction.

Small swath of heavier snow from northern New Jersey out to Long Island.  Poconos get in on the action.  Lehigh Valley in the 1-3 zone.  Basically nothing to the west except for the initial snow.  By the way, if I zoomed out there would not be any snow anywhere else.  Try making a prediction on where this tiny area of snow is going to fall.  Could be a little further north or a little further south.

The Euro isn't convinced yet.  That model shows no significant snow anywhere and only 1-3 inches from Allentown on northward.

Below is the short term model which looks to be on board with the GFS.  Also remember that the short term model easily did the best when it came to predicting the last storm.

It's something to keep an eye out for on Saturday.  If there is any consolation it will be a little warmer which should keep the snow from sticking to the roads at least for awhile.  If you are looking for more good news my confidence for another snowstorm through the March 26th weekend is dwindling.

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