History Remembered

On the eve of a potential stormy tomorrow, I thought I would take some time to look back at some past events that took place on this date.

122 years ago today the Johnstown Flood occurred that killed over 2,200 people.  After days of heavy rain, some totals exceeding ten inches in 24 hours, the South Fork Damn, located 14 miles above the city gave way sending 20 million tons of water towards the town.  By the time the water had reached the city, having already passed through other smaller towns and woods, the water and debris in parts was 60 feet high.  Members of the South Fork Club tried digging spillways when seeing the height of the water in the damn but had no success.  Orders were to be sent to authorities in Johnstown but were never passed along due to the frequency of similar events before.  One hour after the damn broke, the water hit a very unexpected Johnstown. 

Since the devastating flood, Johnstown has continuously dealt with flooding problems that have done significant damage to the town.  Built in a low valley, at the point of two intersecting rivers, surrounded by rollings hills, Johnstown has experienced constant decline in population in large part due to flooding related issues.  While the city will never deal with a disaster as bad as the one they faced 122 years ago, flooding will always be a major concern for residents.

Also on this date 13 years ago a strong tornado came through Berks County.  A late May outbreak across much of the U.S. caused by a fast moving derecho led to violent storms popping up across much of Pennsylvania and New York.  Multiple tornadoes were reported with what ended up being the most violent line of thunderstorms to hit the earth that year according to the National Weather Service.  The derecho, bow echoed thunderstorms with sustained winds of over 58 mph, ended up producing extremely unusual meteorological events and the system lasted another week before fading out in Norway.  Produced amongst the many storms was an F3 tornado that rolled across farmland in central Berks before hitting the town of Lyons.  The very town I work in today.  Most homes in the small town were damaged or destroyed with an estimated damage total of close to 1.5 million dollars. 

Goes to show you can never let your guard down.  My radar will be scanning tomorrow as we appear to be in the target zone.

Speaking of historic events, 62 years ago today depending on when this is being read, a little boy was born.  He has since grown up, somewhat, and produced a fine young gentleman who developed a strong passion for weather.  I'm sure his day will feature a dip in the pool during a sunny and hot afternoon, a bottle of white wine during dinner and a comfy seat in front of the TV for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals.  Or something along those lines.  Either way, Happy Birthday Dad.

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Joplin: One Week

The stories of survival and missing people are still pouring in as we have passed the one week mark from when one of the deadliest tornadoes recorded hit Joplin.  Over the last few days I have added a new radar system to my computer on a temporary basis from the NOAA that tracks severe thunderstorms, giving warnings and other vital information.  In fact, I am currently tracking storms over Nebraska right now.  There is a fee for the product for long-term use, which to me is a bit stupid.  The whole idea is to give people enough warnings when storms are coming and this product continually updates radar, gives future movement and all the little intricacies of each cell.  Anyway.  I also added the Joplin recovery page to my Facebook, which I am now quite sure contains more informative pages than actual people.  And that's the way I like it.  This way I can continually stay updated on how the town is doing once the news crews are gone.

I just noticed on the page today was a link that offered a list of jobs that were available for people who want to volunteer.  Remember, this happened just over a week ago.  There are well over 200 open jobs for thousands of volunteers.  The thing that gets me with events like these is we are very quick to respond but then interest fades.  It wasn't long ago Tuscaloosa and hundreds of other towns were hit by one of the worst outbreaks on record.  They got much needed help, assistance and coverage until Joplin got hit.  I'm assuming that the community is still working together along with outside help to rebuild but unless you read the Alabama news or find a Facebook page, it's hard to see the progress.  But if there is a group of people that come together during difficult times, I'd have to think the people of the south and mid-west top that list.

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For our area, the biggest headline to begin this week will be the heat.  Temperatures should top 90 both tomorrow and Wednesday.  However Wednesday will be the most interesting day to follow as there is a good chance that much of the northeast will experience strong thunderstorms.  Like with many patterns, the temps will cool down for the near future afterward.

I will keep the updates flowing and while I'd rather not have to, my new radar map will probably make its debut on Wednesday. 

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Day 3: Violent Storms Continue

I mentioned in my last post that when I got home from work yesterday, I went straight for the Weather Channel.  They were staying on top of the action with their severe storm expert in the studio and both Jim Cantore and Mike Bettes out in the field.  They were also following a local Oklahoma news feed that had storm chasers on the ground, meteorologists in the studio and a helicopter reporting from the sky.  They have been through this drill before.  I probably watched the coverage for about an hour and I can easily say it was the most intense thing I have ever seen.  The sky was green at times, pitch black or when they were trying to catch the storm, almost bright.  The chasers often looked a bit too close to a tornado that had to be 1/2 mile wide.  When poles started snapping, they made a quick escape.  And from indications, the storm they followed and I watch was probably one of the strongest yesterday.

I drew this approximate tornado path from what I watched 

If yesterday was bad, today has been worse.  There have already been almost twice as many reported tornadoes as of 8:00 tonight then there were all of yesterday.  And now the other side of Missouri is taking the hit.  Last night I thought the area down towards Poplar Bluff was the place to watch.  It's too early to tell how bad the storms have been and what places they have hit, but tornadoes have touched down in four states and are in the process of moving east.  Just another horrible day in the mid-west.  Thankfully, things will settle down for residents by the end of the week.

The system will push east which allows the opportunity for storms to fire in less favorable and quite frankly, less prepared areas.  I failed to mention that two weak tornadoes were reported in the Pocono region on Monday.  You always need to be prepared.  Besides in video, I have never heard a tornado siren in my life, yet we receive multiple tornado warnings each year.  It can happen.

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CHECKING IN ON JOPLIN

There are many things that people not familiar with tornadoes and these areas are not aware of.  I've mentioned many of them in past posts.  Not I will mention another.  Many people, including myself, often have an image of what it would like to live in the mid-west and plains.  For instance, I tend to think of flat land and open farms.  And when I say flat, I mean flat.  Like if you stood on top of your roof, you could see the other side of town.  When we see damage like we have recently with trees disfigured and debris scattered all over the ground, it's hard to understand how different things look.  Well, this helps.

A street view from Goggle prior to the Tornado

The exact same location after the EF-5 storm

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Joplin: Day 2

The verdict is in without any surprise.  Straight from the National Weather Service.

THE JOPLIN TORNADO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EF-5 TORNADO.

* DATE...22 MAY 2011
* MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-5
* ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...IN EXCESS OF 200 MPH
* ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 MILE
* FATALITIES...122 (Number as already increased since I started this)
* INJURIES...750

Everything other than the date above borders and crosses the line of stunning. 

3/4 mile wide.  That's unimaginable.  Here is a comparison that might register a little more.   

The black lines represent Tilghman and Hamilton streets.  The distance between them is 

slightly less than 3/4 mile.  That is how wide the tornado was going through a section of

a city of 50,000 people.

While flipping through my numerous bookmarked sites and other weather related pages, I 

started reading the public information statement for the area and came across the following: 

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO DESTROY OVER 100 HOMES BETWEEN 32ND AND
20TH STREETS. THREE STORY APARTMENT COMPLEXES HAD THE TOP TWO FLOORS
REMOVED...OTHER TWO STORY COMPLEXES WERE PARTIALLY LEVELED.  A BANK
WAS TOTALLY DESTROYED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VAULT. 

And by the way, Joplin has received almost 4.5 inches of rain since the tornado and as of this

post the city is under a Tornado Watch, Flash Flood Watch and Flood Warning.

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Tornadoes really started firing in Oklahoma and Kansas late this afternoon.  In fact, I probably

spent nearly an hour watching TWC when I got home as they were viewing live footage of a 

monster tornado in central Oklahoma from a chase car.  It was crazy.  The storms are still firing

and actually pushing towards Joplin.  My watch box from yesterday might have been a bit far north.

I will update as the night goes on depending on the situations. 

When all the reports and tornadoes are confirmed tomorrow, I will have another post including

checking in on Joplin once again as they prepare for more intense storms.

11 P.M. UPDATE**** 

No way I can cover everything that has gone on.  Tornado I watched live when I got home is on

virtually every site now including the phone pole snapping over the chase car.  Ballpark at Arlington

had to be evacuated due to large hail and tornado threat.  Potential tornado missed Joplin, now the

city braces for a severe thunderstorm with winds upwards of 70 mph.

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Day After

Waking up to see the coverage this morning from Joplin and hearing the then confirmed 89 deaths brought the realization that this tornado was a monster.  Pictures can only show so much.  There is just no way you can possibly imagine what these people went through.  I haven't really gone looking for video.  The one that is taken by chasers is wrapped in rain and debris making it difficult to see.  And the one taken by somebody in a convenience store is frightening.   I'm not putting it on here. 

Now the death toll is at 116.  Incredible.  It is now one of the deadliest tornadoes in history.  I heard talk about warning time for this storm and think, what warning time?  You have a storm 1/2 mile wide, with winds near 200 miles per hour.  Assuming you hear the warning or siren at the exact moment it goes out, and you take it seriously, you probably had 15 minutes.  Let's give another 5 to 10 minutes to get ready, whether it is running to get the kids, helping the frightened family pet, grabbing the important documents and everything else that goes through ones head knowing hell is approaching.  What are we taught to do next?  Go to the basement or an interior part of the home, stay away from windows, protect your head and try to get under a heavy object.  You would have had to be surrounded by a concrete bubble to stay protected in this storm. 

I would never want to know what it was like for what I can only assume was thousands of residents hiding in pitch black just trying to make it out alive.  That is what makes these things so insane.  As people woke, tended church or enjoyed a Sunday afternoon away from the office, nobody had a clue what was about to happen.  And it took only minutes.  Minutes for lives to be forever changed.  Years before a community can heal.  This story is far from over and I hope to continue to keep up with it long after the news crew move out.

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Unfortunately tomorrow is looking like another day for more tornadoes.  This time the states of Kansas and Oklahoma appear to be in the bull's-eye. 

The current risk threat for storms tomorrow.  This Moderate zone will likely change to High.

Tomorrow is one of those where situations.  There will be tornadoes and probably quite a few.  The best hope is that they move over farm land and not into populated areas. 

Based off all the weather information I've seen regarding tomorrow's potential outbreak, here is my own map of the areas I believe to be most impacted.  The orange box is an area that is likely to see strong storms and tornadoes.  The pink box is the area I think in the most prime spot to see violent, strong, numerous tornadoes.

Again, we see large populated areas potential within my map including Tulsa and Wichita.  Note that on the eastern side of the map, Joplin, Missouri once again might be facing strong storms. 

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No Escape

It's Sunday evening and I'm getting ready to watch a Discovery Channel feature on the tornadoes that hit Alabama recently, including the storm that went right through Tuscaloosa killing over 30 people.  As much as I follow the weather, even I can't keep up with everything that goes on.  Generally, and perhaps strangely if you know me, many times I'm made aware of things through social media.  There really is no way to get around it and frankly I'm embracing it.  Stories, pictures and updates get out so quickly.  So when I went to my Facebook bookmark, which is a weather page of course, my jaw dropped when I saw the latest post.

Unfortunately, the ingredients needed for tornadoes is perfect across a good majority of the United States, east of the Rockies to the southern coast.  Better than anywhere in the world.  Some seasons are worse than others, and this one right now is taking the cake.  The video of these beasts are incredible but it's almost getting hard to watch them anymore.  

It has been Raleigh, St. Louis, Tuscaloosa and today Minneapolis joined the list of major metro areas that have been hit by violent storms.  And then the post I read.  24 dead in Joplin, Missouri.  The city of 50,000 took a direct hit from a massive tornado.

This is what the hospital looks like after taking an obvious direct hit.  If you notice, every single window and every single floor of each building is completely blown out.  It just doesn't get sadder than this.  These people probably had little to no time to do anything.

It just seems like it's been non-stop this year.  What's worse is that the tornado season is just getting started.  And already it has been one of the worst seasons in years if not history.  It simply does not matter where you live.  Central plains, southern coast, woods, farms or cities.  Nothing stops these things except time.  All we can do is try our best to stay informed.

To make things worse, this same area is in the target zone for tomorrow.  I will make sure to keep this blog updated as much as possible over the next week.  

THE STORM PREDICTION OUTLOOK FOR 5-23-11

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The Rarity

It was all about the rare occurrences last night and today.  Two were weather related and one, well not so much.  But this blog about weather can't always be weather 24/7 so let's start with the non-weather related rarity first.

Mike, my co-worker and I talk often during the course of an 8+ hour day.  Many times it's about work and other times it is about random musings of everyday life.  Well yesterday, somehow we got onto the topic of work clothes.  Mike dresses appropriately for work but would probably not pass as business professional.  Over the course of the past 6 months he has lost around 45 pounds.  Needless to say the few work clothes he wears are starting to drape his much narrower frame.  Knowing he will surely be searching for new digs, we got to talking about what he should be looking for.  Perhaps in my excitement, as I do enjoy shopping for nice clothing, I randomly threw out the idea that Wednesday should be Tie Day.  Like anything planned for the future, he wrote it down on a sticky note and stuck it to a pack of gum.  Hmmm.  I wasn't expecting that.  He normally doesn't dress up too much and I didn't think he would be keen on the idea.  After all, in all my time working, I've never seen any guy (all three of us) wear a tie to work.  And the dress of the rest of the office area leaves much to be desired.  So I put it in my memory bank and moved on.

I arrived at work early today with tie in hand.  Literally.  I didn't want to create a commotion if Mike didn't take my idea seriously.  One hour later Mike arrived and gave me a glance.  One of those, we don't have to say anything to know what is going on.  He raised his arm and sure enough, he had brought in a tie.  At that moment we both put it on and let the day begin.  It probably didn't take more than a few minutes before you could actually hear the reaction.  And what a reaction we got.  Anything from the office rumor mill that we had interviews or the simple what was going on?  Then it changed to, "You guys look good", "Wow", "Did you guys do this on your own?", "Can we expect to see this from now on?"  It almost never stopped.  We even had a few onlookers come down the aisle just to see us.  After discussing a work item at a lady's desk late in the day, I probably got the best response of all.   

"You look very nice by the way," she said, having earlier been one of the onlookers that gave us a nod of approval.  "You always dress well, but this is very good for Mike.  She continued with how she liked the tie look and how it made us more professional, then also wondered if we would mention something to the other guys.

In the passing Tie Day comment from the day before, I hadn't said anything to the now two other guys.  So I left her desk and explained to both of them why we had done it and should we do it again, we will let them know so that we all wear ties.

I also passed the word on to Mike about the comments.  Throughout the day the only reasonable explanation for the apparent completely mind-boggling event was that it was just a very random comment that we both went for.  And we followed it with a maybe we will make this a weekly event.  Except by the end of the day it became something more.  Especially for Mike.  A few minutes after I passed on the kind words, Mike got up and came to my desk.  I think it hit him.  The man who seldom wore anything other than a dress short sleeve shirt and the same pair of khaki pants said we should eventually make this any every day thing.  The feeling was different.  It was professional.  We even used the slogan, Respect the Tie.  He talked about getting noticed, pay increases or potential promotions.  Bingo!  By George I think we've got something here. 

Now our clothing conversation was about where should he go to buy ties this weekend to add to his collection of one.    
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Back to the weather... I caught what has to be an oddity last night as I was meandering through the NOAA watches in the United States.  I will throw a screen grab up here before continuing so you can have a look for yourself.

If you notice we have central to northern California in this map.  If you read the watches and warnings on the right side, it shouldn't be hard to see what has to be an extremely rare event.  South of Redding, there is a tornado warning a few miles away from a winter storm warning.  I don't think you see that anywhere.  Add the fact this is California and this might be one for the books.  The state averages 5 tornadoes a year.

I also captured the radar from the Weather Channel of the rotating storm heading towards the mountain snow.

**For the record, there was no actual tornado.  In fact, this warning box probably didn't even last ten minutes.  I just happened to catch it, capture it and post it.

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And then today another truly odd event.  A tornado went through Philadelphia.  Even though it was rated the lowest on the Fujita scale with winds between 65 and 85 mph, the storm still managed to do damage which is typical in an urban environment.

This is a photo of damage taken from the ABC 6 helicopter in northeast Philadelphia

And for those looking to know where abouts in Philadelphia the storm hit, I have added a map.

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When To Say When

For millions of years, weather has played a vital role in shaping the topography and geography of this land.  It has created some incredible scenery, shaped mountains, carved rock and created havoc.  And it's still active today.  So it makes me wonder when humans will realize you cannot stop, alter or defeat the power of weather.

When I see something like this done... 

that caused something like this...

to save a small town like this...

Well, it makes me wonder.

To put the pieces together, the record rainfall and flooding along the Mississippi River has become one that will go down in the books.  Many areas have been flooded by rivers from Ohio to Louisiana and all points in between.  And amongst all these towns, cities and farmland, is the town of Cairo, Illinois.  Let the picture tour begin.

Cairo is the southernmost town in Illinois situated right between the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. The two rivers converge just south of the town. With just under 3,000 residents, the town at one time was a key base for the Union army and a major port for river trade. Today the town struggles in difficult financial times and has been hit so hard, many residents have left, leaving the town nearing abandonment.

AT ONE TIME THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN A PRIME LOCATION FOR BUSINESS

So when the rivers rose last week to record high levels, threatening to completely destroy the town, the Army Corp of Engineers stepped in to help.  At a point north of town, they used explosives to break levees as can be seen in the first picture I posted.  The break caused water to rush into farmlands in Missouri where hundreds of homes and thousands of acres are now submerged (picture two).  But the little town of Cairo, with 25 foot levees surrounding all sides of town is still safe.  A great outcome for them, not so much for Missouri farmers.

Should we believe that this town is more valuable than farmland, farmers, their livelihood and property?  Would this land have flooded anyway if the levee had not been there?  I don't really know the answers.

But I do know that any river, stream or creek has a natural floodplain.  If you choose to live in this area, you need to understand what can happen.  I have nothing against the town of Cairo, nor the farmers in Missouri or quite frankly anybody else living along the river.  That is home.  But these are no win situations.  Somebody is going to be upset regardless of what happens when man interferes.  So why not back off and let nature take its course.

A river will flow from point A to point B.  And it will find the quickest and most direct route.  Sticking a wall up is only temporary relief.  Then we are shocked at what happens when the river overflows.  Living in the shadows of such big rivers like these must warrant appreciation and respect from the residents.  I believe many mid-westerners understand this and can live with the consequences.  But purposely flooding one area to save another is just a bit hard to swallow.  Allowing nature to decide not only eliminates blame but would also save people from making the same mistake of returning to the same spot over and over and over again.  

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Some Video

No post today.  Instead I thought it would be nice to watch some video, all weather related in some way or another.

The first is a time lapse of Montreal, Quebec City, Toronto, Manhattan and Chicago.

The second is two wild and crazy guys having fun in the French Alps



Timelapse - The City Limits from Dominic on Vimeo.






Stay tuned this weekend as we put away the shovels and add up the totals as we official say good-bye to winter.

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Rough Week

Unless you completely closed yourself off to anything related to news, it would be almost impossible not to be aware of what has happened across much of the southern part of the United States this past week.  In a broader view, this part of the country has experienced some of the worst weather ever recorded.

Let's be honest.  The entire month of April is one that many across the country will be happy to see leave, especially in the south.  Everything culminated during this final week of the month.  Things started out poorly on Monday when 55 tornadoes were reported in 8 states.  The stage was beginning to be set for Tuesday when heavy rain and tornadoes dominated the landscape.

Over 100 tornadoes (red) were reported Tuesday, almost all located in the same general area.  

The circled area on the map is what I drew, representing the hardest hit places this last week in terms of tornadoes and flooding.  Keep in mind this circle as the maps progress.

Then there was Wednesday.  A day that millions of people will never forget.  And hopefully one that doesn't happen again anytime soon.  263 tornadoes were reported.  Over 300 people have been confirmed dead.  It was the second deadliest day ever recorded in the U.S.  Two EF-5 tornadoes touched down on the same day for the first time in over 20 years.  Mississippi and Alabama were some of the hardest hit, including the tornado that went right through Tuscaloosa that has received much press.   

Here is what the storm report looks like for Wednesday.  There are so many red dots in northern Alabama that it almost appears to look colored in.

And if you haven't seen the video below, watch it.  I still can't imagine what it is like to be this close and feel completely helpless knowing the amount of destruction and death these things are causing.

I remind you that this was not one of the EF-5 tornadoes reported.  This was a category below.  However, the fact the path went right through the center of a populated city makes this about as bad as it can get.  At anywhere from 1/2 to one mile wide, the tornado did significant damage.

Top: A clear path can be seen entering the city.  Bottom:  A look at 15th street in town after the tornado plows through a busy intersection.  (Photos from Tuscaloosanews.com)

From reports, I was able to draw this estimated tornado path in red.  Using Google maps, I wanted to show just how close this storm was to downtown Tuscaloosa and even the University of Alabama.  The picture above this is in the area right around the circled 6.

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If you remember the circle I was referring to earlier, where Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois and Missouri all seems to come together, I want to talk about that area again.  Many places, if not all in that generally area have received 10 to 20 inches of rain this month.  Between the dodging of tornadoes, wind damage and hail, the flooding is becoming very serious.  And the first week of May will offer little to no relief.

The image shows the total rainfall predicted by the NOAA for the next 72 hours for this same area that continued to get battered by rain.  The yellow in central Arkansas is right around 10 inches. 

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Locally, once again we get away in relative good condition.  It would be especially hard to complain when others are going through all the things mentioned above.  

I still wouldn't let my guard down.  Even during this outbreak, there were at least four reported tornadoes in eastern Pennsylvania.  3 occurred in the Lancaster and York areas while another was confirmed to the north of Scranton.  Even though these are generally weak and short in duration, injuries from downed trees and wires is always a possibility.   

With May being the peak month for tornadoes across the country, it is always a good idea to keep an eye on the weather regardless of where you are.

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