Accu Update

Felt like I had to share this as Accuweather decided to update their original winter season predictions.  Personally I feel like this is just a way to continually change what was originally stated so they can eventually go back and say at some point they had it right.  Of course it's right when it's changed every two weeks.

If you click on the label below the comments that says 2011-12 Forecast, it will bring up all the posts that have to deal with predictions for this year.  As of now it is only my original prediction and the ones that the locals from Philadelphia stated.  I invite you to go back and what I wrote before anybody else stated anything.  And also look at the pictures I posted from the Accuweather site.


Now look at the map.

 - From the Winter Forecast Update:

In the updated forecast, near-normal lake-effect snow will fall around the eastern Great Lakes. However, snow amounts could still end up above normal in this zone from storms cutting away from the coastal Northeast.

With a storm track farther north and west compared to last year, snowfall will be near to below normal for the highly populated I-95 corridor, including Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Stormy weather is still expected, but there will be more events with a wintry mix or a changeover to rain.

Funny.  They weren't saying this a couple weeks ago.  And they also predicted higher than normal snowfall for PHI and NYC.

Maybe they have started to read this site?

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By the way snow haters, took a look at the long range for the next two weeks and see at this time no chance for snow.  There are two chances for good rains but both have warm air out in front (like I said in my original prediction would happen).  Of course sandwiched in the middle is a shot of cold air.  

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Philly Phorecast

It would appear that many people took the October snowstorm as a sign that winter was going to rear its ugly head early and often.  Now we are approaching one month later without the slightest hint of winter weather or for that matter, any arctic air.  How long will this pattern of slightly above average temperatures last?  Indications are we might not see anything significant for at least another few weeks.  That would put us right in the middle of December, a good starting point for others to weigh in with their ideas.

The Philly Four have put out their 2011-12 winter predictions and even though it is after the first snowfall (and after my predictions), I will give them all a pass.  I watched the predictions and jotted down some notes to see who will really do the overall best this year.

Here are your contenders.

In the first corner we have 46 year-old Kathy Orr hailing from northern New York.  She has been chief meteorologist for CBS in Philadelphia since 2003.

In corner two from Long Island we bring you tough talkin 54 year-old John Bolaris.  He has been chief at Fox Philly since 2007 and has worked before at rival channel 10.

In corner three we have ourselves an accomplished triathlete in Cecily Tynan.  A well-known face throughout Philadelphia, the 42 year-old has been with the station since 1995.

In the last corner we have local favorite Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz.  He has been chief at NBC since 2002 and has worked across the country including The Weather Channel and has earned many well-respected awards.

I want to see bold predictions.  Take a stand.  Nobody predicted the last two winters to be as snowy as they were.  Two years ago the all-time record was broken and last season was the 8^th snowiest.  Anybody want to go big again?  We will go in numeric order.

CBS:

December: Average Temps, Little Snowfall

January: Below Average Temps, Below Average Snowfall

February: Above Average Temps, Above Average Snowfall

March:  Above Average Snowfall

Bold Predictions:  Very small chance for a white Christmas.  Two 6+ inch storms between late January and late February.

Total:  21-28 Inches

FOX:

Late December-January:  Snowy and Cold

February:  Ice

March:  Possible Super Storm of 15+ inches

Total:  24-30 Inches, 30-40 Berks-Lehigh

ABC

Cold First Half of Season

Storms Take Inland Track

More Ice Storms

Total:  22-28 Inches

NBC:

December:  Below Average Temps, 10 inches

January:  Below Average Temps, 14 inches

February:  Average Temps, 12 inches

March:  Above Average Temps, No Snow

Total:  30-40 Inches with one +10

Go no further Hurricane, I love the boldness factor here.  Not only does he go well above average (we will get to this shortly) but also gives exact totals by month.  Impressive.  And the boldest statement has to go to JB at Fox for thinking there is a chance for a monster snowstorm in March.  I can see a storm but 15 inches?  Wow.

CBS took the most moderate approach.  Nothing was out of the ordinary but they also put themselves out there with certain claims.  ABC on the other hand falls flat for my liking.  Not only did they make no serious predictions, the ones they did make don’t make a lot of sense.  They have the city receiving at to above average snow yet say storms will take an inland track giving Philadelphia more ice.  I agreed with this statement in my predictions BUT with this thinking, said Philadelphia would receive below average snow totals.  If ABC is predicting that kind of snow, then there must be a few storms that do not track inland or one very big coastal storm.  Either way, their lack of specifics makes it hard for them to be a contender.

If I circle back for a minute, I’d like to get into what the average snow is for the city.  Oddly enough all four stations had something different for average snow.  Not sure how that is but you do have to consider that after every season, that new total has to be averaged into the past recorded totals.  With that said I will go with the middle number and say Philadelphia averages 22 inches.  Nobody knows the actually average but we do know it has been on the rise.

And again to reiterate something I already posted, here at LVW we also like to go bold.  Maybe I need my own nickname.  I said at or less than average for Philadelphia. 

LVW

Total:  22 or less

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Winter 2011-12

Are you prepared?  It won’t be long before the dreaded or perhaps favorite four-letter word appears on your local forecast.  In keeping with tradition, it is time to dedicate a segment of this blog to the 2011-12 winter forecast.

Over the past few winters the bigger cities and areas closer to the coast have been hit harder than interior portions of our area.  As backwards as it seems, the pattern set up to continue to allow storms to ride the coast and dump big snow totals on Philadelphia, New York City and areas along the coast.  It would appear that changes this winter.  I like to call this typical winter pattern, the north and west winter.  The logic is pretty simple on this one.  Watch how many times the local meteorologists single out points north and west of the city as getting the highest accumulations.  It happens if you watch the Baltimore, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, New York and probably even Boston stations.  It’s almost like it is its own geographical area.  But how far north and west will be the question.

Based on very little scientific evidence or any meteorological background, I think our area might not be far enough west for snow lovers.  What I do know is that we are in a weak La Nina heading into a stronger pattern.  While that does usually mean a snowier and colder winter in our area, it doesn't equate how much snowier.  Instead, we have to look at the jet stream that guides storms along a certain path.  Last year and even in years before last, the tracks took storms right up the coast hammering the big cities.  When the jet dips it also brings down cold air from Canada giving the perfect ingredients for snowstorms.  (Illustrated by me below)

This year the jet stream is forecast to dip through the central plains and make an upwards turn closer to the Ohio Valley.  This could make for a tricky forecast for our area.  On one hand cold air will be in place but at times there could be a moderate warming trend with highs 10-15 degrees above normal.  And while a La Nina pattern will keep things stormy, the air in front of the storm could warm up to just above freezing.  My theory?  I think areas closer to the PA-NJ border deal with ice problems this season.  (Below: Potential pattern this winter.)  Green line represents weak patterns that pushes smaller clipper type storms through the area.

My personal feel is that most of the action will be west of us or up towards the Pocono's.  The coastal areas do not favor well if you are looking for a lot of snow.  The I-95 area sets up for a battle between snow, ice and rain as do most of the suburbs.  The valley and parts of Berks will be very close to the snow.  But I can see places towards central PA seeing quite more than normal.  Here is my official call for this winter.  By the way, the locals have yet to make any predictions.  If I remember correctly they all basically keep it right at average even though Philly has been slammed recently.

 

Now here is a look at what Accuweather has predicted.  As I see other predictions being made I will be sure to post them unless they are worthless.  The NOAA's forecast came out today and their forecast for our area said something to the affect of "equal chance for warmer or cooler or wetter or drier conditions."  Thanks for the insight.  Leave it to Accuweather to put a map out there "early" and stick to it.  I like their style.  Let's see who ends up being closer.

And now they get a little more ballsie and decide to predict totals for random cities.  Notice they go above average for NY and Philadelphia for which I am going below.  I feel like the last contestant trying to bid on a scooter on The Price is Right.  The safe bet is to go one inch over what they predicted so I can walk away with the win.  But we don't play that way here.  I am going lower and that's the end of that.  Enjoy winter.

  

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