Philly Phorecast

It would appear that many people took the October snowstorm as a sign that winter was going to rear its ugly head early and often.  Now we are approaching one month later without the slightest hint of winter weather or for that matter, any arctic air.  How long will this pattern of slightly above average temperatures last?  Indications are we might not see anything significant for at least another few weeks.  That would put us right in the middle of December, a good starting point for others to weigh in with their ideas.

The Philly Four have put out their 2011-12 winter predictions and even though it is after the first snowfall (and after my predictions), I will give them all a pass.  I watched the predictions and jotted down some notes to see who will really do the overall best this year.

Here are your contenders.

In the first corner we have 46 year-old Kathy Orr hailing from northern New York.  She has been chief meteorologist for CBS in Philadelphia since 2003.

In corner two from Long Island we bring you tough talkin 54 year-old John Bolaris.  He has been chief at Fox Philly since 2007 and has worked before at rival channel 10.

In corner three we have ourselves an accomplished triathlete in Cecily Tynan.  A well-known face throughout Philadelphia, the 42 year-old has been with the station since 1995.

In the last corner we have local favorite Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz.  He has been chief at NBC since 2002 and has worked across the country including The Weather Channel and has earned many well-respected awards.

I want to see bold predictions.  Take a stand.  Nobody predicted the last two winters to be as snowy as they were.  Two years ago the all-time record was broken and last season was the 8^th snowiest.  Anybody want to go big again?  We will go in numeric order.

CBS:

December: Average Temps, Little Snowfall

January: Below Average Temps, Below Average Snowfall

February: Above Average Temps, Above Average Snowfall

March:  Above Average Snowfall

Bold Predictions:  Very small chance for a white Christmas.  Two 6+ inch storms between late January and late February.

Total:  21-28 Inches

FOX:

Late December-January:  Snowy and Cold

February:  Ice

March:  Possible Super Storm of 15+ inches

Total:  24-30 Inches, 30-40 Berks-Lehigh

ABC

Cold First Half of Season

Storms Take Inland Track

More Ice Storms

Total:  22-28 Inches

NBC:

December:  Below Average Temps, 10 inches

January:  Below Average Temps, 14 inches

February:  Average Temps, 12 inches

March:  Above Average Temps, No Snow

Total:  30-40 Inches with one +10

Go no further Hurricane, I love the boldness factor here.  Not only does he go well above average (we will get to this shortly) but also gives exact totals by month.  Impressive.  And the boldest statement has to go to JB at Fox for thinking there is a chance for a monster snowstorm in March.  I can see a storm but 15 inches?  Wow.

CBS took the most moderate approach.  Nothing was out of the ordinary but they also put themselves out there with certain claims.  ABC on the other hand falls flat for my liking.  Not only did they make no serious predictions, the ones they did make don’t make a lot of sense.  They have the city receiving at to above average snow yet say storms will take an inland track giving Philadelphia more ice.  I agreed with this statement in my predictions BUT with this thinking, said Philadelphia would receive below average snow totals.  If ABC is predicting that kind of snow, then there must be a few storms that do not track inland or one very big coastal storm.  Either way, their lack of specifics makes it hard for them to be a contender.

If I circle back for a minute, I’d like to get into what the average snow is for the city.  Oddly enough all four stations had something different for average snow.  Not sure how that is but you do have to consider that after every season, that new total has to be averaged into the past recorded totals.  With that said I will go with the middle number and say Philadelphia averages 22 inches.  Nobody knows the actually average but we do know it has been on the rise.

And again to reiterate something I already posted, here at LVW we also like to go bold.  Maybe I need my own nickname.  I said at or less than average for Philadelphia. 

LVW

Total:  22 or less