Winter 2011-12

Are you prepared?  It won’t be long before the dreaded or perhaps favorite four-letter word appears on your local forecast.  In keeping with tradition, it is time to dedicate a segment of this blog to the 2011-12 winter forecast.

Over the past few winters the bigger cities and areas closer to the coast have been hit harder than interior portions of our area.  As backwards as it seems, the pattern set up to continue to allow storms to ride the coast and dump big snow totals on Philadelphia, New York City and areas along the coast.  It would appear that changes this winter.  I like to call this typical winter pattern, the north and west winter.  The logic is pretty simple on this one.  Watch how many times the local meteorologists single out points north and west of the city as getting the highest accumulations.  It happens if you watch the Baltimore, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, New York and probably even Boston stations.  It’s almost like it is its own geographical area.  But how far north and west will be the question.

Based on very little scientific evidence or any meteorological background, I think our area might not be far enough west for snow lovers.  What I do know is that we are in a weak La Nina heading into a stronger pattern.  While that does usually mean a snowier and colder winter in our area, it doesn't equate how much snowier.  Instead, we have to look at the jet stream that guides storms along a certain path.  Last year and even in years before last, the tracks took storms right up the coast hammering the big cities.  When the jet dips it also brings down cold air from Canada giving the perfect ingredients for snowstorms.  (Illustrated by me below)

This year the jet stream is forecast to dip through the central plains and make an upwards turn closer to the Ohio Valley.  This could make for a tricky forecast for our area.  On one hand cold air will be in place but at times there could be a moderate warming trend with highs 10-15 degrees above normal.  And while a La Nina pattern will keep things stormy, the air in front of the storm could warm up to just above freezing.  My theory?  I think areas closer to the PA-NJ border deal with ice problems this season.  (Below: Potential pattern this winter.)  Green line represents weak patterns that pushes smaller clipper type storms through the area.

My personal feel is that most of the action will be west of us or up towards the Pocono's.  The coastal areas do not favor well if you are looking for a lot of snow.  The I-95 area sets up for a battle between snow, ice and rain as do most of the suburbs.  The valley and parts of Berks will be very close to the snow.  But I can see places towards central PA seeing quite more than normal.  Here is my official call for this winter.  By the way, the locals have yet to make any predictions.  If I remember correctly they all basically keep it right at average even though Philly has been slammed recently.

 

Now here is a look at what Accuweather has predicted.  As I see other predictions being made I will be sure to post them unless they are worthless.  The NOAA's forecast came out today and their forecast for our area said something to the affect of "equal chance for warmer or cooler or wetter or drier conditions."  Thanks for the insight.  Leave it to Accuweather to put a map out there "early" and stick to it.  I like their style.  Let's see who ends up being closer.

And now they get a little more ballsie and decide to predict totals for random cities.  Notice they go above average for NY and Philadelphia for which I am going below.  I feel like the last contestant trying to bid on a scooter on The Price is Right.  The safe bet is to go one inch over what they predicted so I can walk away with the win.  But we don't play that way here.  I am going lower and that's the end of that.  Enjoy winter.