The Last 3 Storms

By now we are all aware that not all storms pan out in terms of predicted snowfall totals.  Some places get less than forecasted and other get much more.  It's the same with every single coastal storm.  Today was one of those times that our area missed the mark.  Mind you, it still snowed.  Other places ended up with next to nothing that thought they were getting anywhere from 4 to 8 inches.

I've been trying to piece together a summary of the last month or so to describe what we have been dealing with in terms of the roller coaster of weather.  I can't seem to figure it out.  The only thing I can say is to expect the unexpected.  Maybe that's the way winter will be from now on.  Or maybe that is how it has always been and we fail to remember since weather is constantly changing.  Instead of writing a summary of what we have been dealing with, I'm going to comment on a few topics I've noticed.

Let's start with February.

It was wet.
Of the 28 days, we recorded precipitation on 16 of them.  That's basically what we would see in summer months.   Receiving 5.50 inches of rain in a month that averages 2.70 has to be a bit on the odd side.  Maybe not.  In 2014 we got 4.45 and 2016 4.88.  In 2013 and 2015 less than two.  Let's stick with the odd/even pattern and say 2019 will be under two.

We set an all-time high record. 
On February 21st the high in Allentown hit 81.  That officially is the warmest temperature recorded in the history of Allentown.  Pretty crazy right.  Or is it? Thanks to record keeping I made this interesting find for the following dates.

February 23 had a high of 72.
February 24 had a high of 77.
February 25 had a high of 74.

Now here is the kicker.  All those temperatures were recorded in the same year.  And what year would that have been?  Last year.  Does anybody remember that because I don't.  So maybe hitting 81 this year (no other days broke 70) is not that crazy. 

This however might be.

It snowed 6.5 inches on February 17

Four days later it was 81.  What is this, Denver?  Let's get back to the snow event.  It would be fair to say this one came out of nowhere.  When storms usually are talked about practically 10 days in advance, this one performed a magical act to suddenly appear.  Not only that but the call was for a few inches at most.  It is here where I would have posted the snowfall results except I can't find where the weather service hid them, and I do not feel like spending time looking for it.

Into March we go.  A notoriously sneaky month for big storms.

A stationary snow band delivers results on March 2
This one was especially bizarre from my standpoint.  For context they never called for much snow in our region.  Most of the big amounts would be to the north.  Everybody would see a few inches.  So I kept tabs on the storm throughout the day and started to notice that while not much was happening where I was, the story seemed a bit different where I lived.  Driving home confirmed it on a larger scale than I expected.  The map, which is still available, will show how banding with coastal storms works.

I've added the red box to highlight totals from the day.  Look at Reading to the west which reported nothing.  Trenton to the east is at 0.2.  In the middle you have anything from 6 to 9.5 inches.  Bethlehem ended up reporting 5.6 inches which did not make this map.  Allentown (airport) officially is the 3.7 you see in the box at the top.  There is your example of a north to south heavy band that does not move.

That brings us to today.  When I woke up the NWS forecast was for 14 inches of snow in Allentown.  That would have been very accurate if you took away the 1.  Totals are still coming in and nothing is official.  The airport is a bit further west (every mile helps) so I'm thinking their total is not going to be anything above 5 inches.  Other areas in the region might be in the 5-6 range.  Still a very far cry from the call.  As mentioned before, it happens.  I'm more perplexed as to why the totals were not updated as the day went on.  The forecast amount was actually higher this morning than it was last night.  Oh well.

Are we done with snow? 
Would you trust anybody if they said yes or no?  I don't.  Once we get through the first 9 days of April is when I'd say we are done.  Whatever we add as the official total for the storm today, we will end up almost exactly at average for a normal winter.  And there are still a few more weeks to go.  This basically tells me that through all the ups and downs, this was a typical winter season.  Of course I can't help but notice a few more things that get me thinking.

Depending on the official total today, which again I say will be less than 5 inches, if we do not get another storm this month, December will end up being the snowiest month this winter.  It doesn't sound like anything out of the norm until you see this stat.  I have the snow history dating back to the winter of 1980-81.  December has never, not once, been the snowiest month in a season over that period of time.

Now for one more.  Let's say we do get another storm and March surpasses December in snowfall.  Well that too will be strange because this would be the third time in the last four seasons that March ends up being the snowiest month.  Prior to that it had been 14 years since that happened and in that season we ended with 10 inches for the whole year.  I think it is safe to say March is officially a player in winter.