The Unknown

When it comes to the approaching storm my new rule is no guessing.  These are the types of storms that nobody will know how much snow a place like Allentown or Reading is going to get until it is happening.  Some places are going to get hit hard like the New Jersey coast, Long Island and Boston.  What makes it worse is when you combine heavy snow and high winds there is a 100% chance that thousands of people will lose power right before the coldest temperatures likely of the entire season hit. 

I almost posted last night when I saw the western shift from the NAM model.  These short term models tend to be accurate.  Again though, it is very difficult to get this type of thing right.  It's like predicting the exact landfall of a hurricane a day before it hits.  Some organizations have hinted at a western shift even when the models said no.  Others have been more cautious.  I still don't know who is right.

The best I can do is post the predicted local totals from various groups.  I'm sure these will be constantly changing as the storm approaches.  Remember, a day or two ago most of the models suggested an inch or two or less for our area.

Short Range Model

Heck of a cut off from basically nothing west of Berks to 16 inches at the coast.  Model tends to be a little robust, but who knows.

NOAA

The GFS and European are not worth posting for us.  Both have our area in 1 inch or at most 2 inches.

Here is what I can tell you.  If you really enjoy snow consider this a win.  You could travel 50 miles west and see nothing.  If you do not like snow or do not enjoy a morning commute in the snow, this could be a problem.  If everything stays on track in will be white outside when you get up and snowing when driving to work.  That is never enjoyable.  Can't really say the evening commute will be a lot better with the potential blowing snow and icy roads.  Depending on how cut off the moisture is there could be parts of our area that see very little and therefore will not deal with problems.  Again though you have to go west for that.

We will see how this plays out tomorrow.  We are in one of these patterns.  Let's get through this one first before jumping ahead.  I do want to at least point out that Monday of next week should be watched closely.