Lake Effect

In case anybody didn't notice it was quite cold this weekend.  Especially on Sunday.  The winds were not helping either.  With that steady northerly wind we also saw our first solid lake effect snowfall occur for some of our favorite snowy city zones.  This could only be the beginning of a busy opening start to the winter season.

This year I'd like to really take some extra time to look at snow storms or lake effect snow events that either have an impact on our weather locally or the weather of the areas in the snow zones or other parts of the region.  Basically I plan on making a post about almost every event that is at least worthy of a story.

Let's begin with the first from this weekend.  Oddly enough I found it interesting.

First I will show the warnings posted from Saturday morning for the central New York region.  The dark blue shows areas with a lake effect warning and the lighter blue an advisory.

What I find interesting about this is you see a group of four counties shaded with a warning.  None of them touch the lake meanwhile many surrounding counties including ones closer to the lake only see an advisory.  It's a clear indication of wind direction to see a sharp northerly to north easterly wind blowing across the lake.  The more intriguing factor is the centralized location.  You can thank a strong wind and the dynamics of lake effect snow for that.

Lake effect snow can travel and pile up miles away from the lake it originally comes from.  This particular event saw a wind direction not entirely common.  That made the distance the fetch had to work with noticeably smaller than a west to east wind that can span hundreds of miles across.  It also pushed the clouds and moisture further inland where it was deposited instead of right at the coast.  Continuing south the elevation slowly begins to rise which can also lead to higher snow totals due to lifting. 

A little different to kick off the season.  Made it interesting for me to watch unfold.  It didn't turn out to be quite as bad as I think some thought it could be.  Here is a map of the total snowfall for various places in Onondaga County (home to Syracuse) for the weekend.

 

Like most cities, the snowfall for Syracuse is recorded at the airport.  Unlike most cities the snowfall totals from town to town in this area can vary greatly.  The 6.0 is the recording from the airport which is north of downtown.  The winner, at least for the county, was the town of Skaneateles with 10 inches that sits on the northern section of the Finger Lake of the same name.

And by the way, the towns right along the shores like Oswego, who normally get pounded received less than an inch.  Weather can be funny.

Snow Zones 11-23 to 11-24

Syracuse:  6.7 inches

Johnstown:  2.5 inches

Burlington:  2.4 inches

ROUND 2

The Thanksgiving Eve storm won't be a big deal for our area in terms of wintry weather.  There could be some though probably nothing amounting to more than an inch either at the start or the end.  The areas to our west and north will not be so lucky or really lucky depending on who you talk to.

At the time of this post Johnstown currently is under a winter storm warning, Syracuse a watch and Burlington an advisory.  It's all about timing for when the weather service issues certain warning levels.  I would assume Syracuse will be changed to a warning.  Burlington might be a bit too far east for the bulk of this one which leaves the battle between Johnstown and Syracuse.  Syracuse has a slight edge in positioning, but Johnstown has some funky terrain.  Don't count them out.

A full report following the storm for our area and our friends will be done by the end of the week.

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Bring in the Chill

When we struggled to hit 40 last week it appeared that would be the coldest air mass of November.  When we saw our first snowflakes I said enjoy it now because you might not see it again for awhile.  Well hold up my friends.  Things change.

Cold air will be ushered in by the end of the weekend and into next week.  The likes of temperatures more associated with January than November.  If we look at the forecasted highs from this Sunday through next week the average high (38) and low (23) would be the exact equivalent to the average temperature during the first week of January.  And as far as not seeing a snowflake again for awhile, it becomes more of a question of where than when.  Don't be too surprised.  The last seven days of last November were also below normal in temperature and 1.8 inches of snow fell on the 27th.

The northeast has remained untouched from any substantial snowfall so far.  It shouldn't be surprising.  We haven't even made it three weeks into November yet.  The cold air coming from Canada will change that quickly.  The winds will kick start the lake effect snow machine for many of the typical areas along the lakes.  A storm around Thanksgiving will also have to be watched to determine if interior or higher elevated areas of our region see snowfall. 

Speaking of seeing snowfall we need to keep seeing those snowfall predictions come in before we actually start measuring.  The gang over at Eastern PA weather wrote up a lengthy piece about what they expect this winter.  In a nutshell it again mimics what we continue to see with other predictions in that the bulk of the snow falls in the "second half"of winter.  I have to point out that the term second half is relative to that of a weather forecaster.  I in no way consider winter to begin on the actual date the calendar says so.  Meteorological winter begins the first day of December and runs through February.  In our area I would consider the period of winter to be roughly between November 15th and March 15th.  So second half refers to the time frame from mid January and on.

EPA totals will be added to the right.  Fox and CBS also recently made their predictions too.  That should encompass all of the media outlets locally.  I can probably find a few others that made picks.  Now we spend the season following the action.

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More Predictions

This year I am looking for any and all weather outlets to make predictions on local snowfall.  Since my last post two more predictions have been made.  Let's take a brief look.

John Bolaris, still writing for philly.com like last season, comes in with his prediction.  Not surprisingly he went with a strong number of 30-40 inches for the city.  Bolaris did not give any numbers for the Lehigh Valley or Reading areas.  Bolaris like most everybody else sees a strong middle to end of the winter season and is banking on chances of seeing big totals with few storms.  I like his style even though he sometimes can get a bit strange. 

After the first two Philadelphia predictions came in below average I was pleasantly surprised with Bolaris taking the higher route.  He wasn't the only one thinking that way.  Hurricane Schwartz, besides having the best first name for a weather forecaster ever, has come out with his prediction.  Alright so maybe that isn't his actual name.  Either way, Schwartz is still making predictions over at NBC even though the market has moved towards the sexy female (See Sheena Parveen).  His prediction had a similar tone to that of Bolaris and he becomes the second to go substantially over the average calling for 30-35 inches for the city.  Again, no other predictions made.

Out of 4 predictions for Philadelphia, two have been below average and two have been above.  So far I am liking these predictions since nobody has taken the actual average.  Still waiting on CBS and FOX.  I know the folks at Eastern PA weather are making their predictions tomorrow so throw them into the mix.  I hope to find a few others if possible.

TROPICS


Even though the tropical season in the Atlantic is not technically over, it is.  This year was particularly quiet.  Actually it was extremely inactive.  Almost no storms hit the U.S. coast and none that did make a landfall were hurricanes.  It's like everything else in weather.  You have some years with little to nothing and others with more than you care to see.  That's how weather works.

The eastern side of the globe has not been as lucky.  Normally they experience more tropical systems anyway but the storm to hit the Philippines over the weekend was a monster.  Stories have made the front of my daily newspaper every day so far.  The Weather Channel and CNN weren't stationed on the beaches reporting on the winds and surge from one of the strongest tropical storms to date.  At least I don't think they were there.  It's hard to grasp the force of the storm when all that is left are the ruins of homes, building and cities that we had no knowledge about to begin with anyway.  I like geography.  I like to think I have a more than basic knowledge about the rest of the world.  I had never heard of Tacloban before.  I know it real well now.  The pictures and stories coming out from this area are intense.  It makes me look back at Katrina and think how much worse it could have been if we didn't have as many resources available to us as we do.

It's still undetermined how many people were killed during the storm.  They might never know the total.  It also remains to be seen how many who made it through the storm but won't survive because of injuries that can't be taken care of or the lack of food that still plagues the region days after the storm.  

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First Flakes

Mark it on your calendar.  November 12, 2013 or 11-12-13 for those who have an interest in sequential calendar numbers.  It was the first sign of snow for the new winter season.  Quite frankly I don't know the average date for first snowfall for the area but I would tend to think it's a bit earlier than normal by a week or two.  Regardless, the snow was not measurable for most.  All reports came in below one inch.

Normally I travel to find the first flakes of the year.  It wasn't the case this time as a cold front brought in a line of snow showers for all of the region.  It started in Reading between 7 and 7:30 this morning and didn't last long.  Always nice to see the first snow of the year which also is my last check mark on my sheet that winter is here.  Even though we saw our first snow, it could be awhile before we see another.

Like many other things these days the model site that I used in the past is now professional done and requires a membership and fee.  Can't say I blame the guy for changing it.  But I'm not paying.  So it's back to finding random maps and the scarce amount of free model runs floating around somewhere in the internet universe.  Maybe it is better to stay away from those anyway.  If you would have dove in to the world of model forecasting last week you would have seen multiple stories of the snowstorm about to hit the east.  That's because one model trended towards a coastal storm taking a path up along the eastern states in some capacity.  That storm ended up going out to sea.  The snow shower we got was from a front.  That's why you can't make accurate predictions a week before.  It's why I never mentioned a word.

The rest of November looks to have an up and down pattern not that abnormal for the month.  It shouldn't be as wacky as the first half where we've had a high of 73 in Reading and a projected high of 38 tomorrow.  Sunday through Tuesday looks like some chances for rain and then another shot next weekend.  Both are associated with warmer air which is as per usual.  Temps fall behind the rain.  Nothing at this time shows any indication of the type of cold we are seeing now for the rest of the month.


KEEPING TRACK

I am going to continue to find as many local winter weather predictions as I can and post them on the right side.  The order will be in which the prediction was made from first to last.  ABC was the first major news channel to throw their prediction out and to their credit they went with a number below normal. 

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