Bring in the Chill

When we struggled to hit 40 last week it appeared that would be the coldest air mass of November.  When we saw our first snowflakes I said enjoy it now because you might not see it again for awhile.  Well hold up my friends.  Things change.

Cold air will be ushered in by the end of the weekend and into next week.  The likes of temperatures more associated with January than November.  If we look at the forecasted highs from this Sunday through next week the average high (38) and low (23) would be the exact equivalent to the average temperature during the first week of January.  And as far as not seeing a snowflake again for awhile, it becomes more of a question of where than when.  Don't be too surprised.  The last seven days of last November were also below normal in temperature and 1.8 inches of snow fell on the 27th.

The northeast has remained untouched from any substantial snowfall so far.  It shouldn't be surprising.  We haven't even made it three weeks into November yet.  The cold air coming from Canada will change that quickly.  The winds will kick start the lake effect snow machine for many of the typical areas along the lakes.  A storm around Thanksgiving will also have to be watched to determine if interior or higher elevated areas of our region see snowfall. 

Speaking of seeing snowfall we need to keep seeing those snowfall predictions come in before we actually start measuring.  The gang over at Eastern PA weather wrote up a lengthy piece about what they expect this winter.  In a nutshell it again mimics what we continue to see with other predictions in that the bulk of the snow falls in the "second half"of winter.  I have to point out that the term second half is relative to that of a weather forecaster.  I in no way consider winter to begin on the actual date the calendar says so.  Meteorological winter begins the first day of December and runs through February.  In our area I would consider the period of winter to be roughly between November 15th and March 15th.  So second half refers to the time frame from mid January and on.

EPA totals will be added to the right.  Fox and CBS also recently made their predictions too.  That should encompass all of the media outlets locally.  I can probably find a few others that made picks.  Now we spend the season following the action.