Got To Love Weather

It would be hard to complain right now about this winter so far.  After all, it hasn't started and we are already ahead of normal snowfall.  The lack of cold air though is a bit unsettling.  Especially when we sit here nearing the start of December at 65 degrees and there are winter storm warnings in Mississippi and Tennessee. 

I mentioned in a last post that there was nothing on the horizon in terms of potential storms.  While that has not changed, I want to be clear that it does not mean something will not evolve.  Earlier this fall I said I wanted to stay away from the hype of big storms weeks or days ahead of time when there are so many variables with living along the east coast.

Temperatures will turn more seasonably cooler by next week, even going below average.  How long that will last is somewhat of a mystery.  Signs point to a brief shot of cold with another warm up behind that.  There is a storm that would bring precip into our area around the 6th or 7th but again, like I might end up saying a lot this season, any snow would be inland.  It does open the door for the cold air I mentioned to invade from Canada.  Of course, there is no precipitation around to give us any snow.  I won't go any further than that.

But Hey, it's snowing in the south right now.  Some areas could see close to five inches.  Again, I will not complain but there are a few places up around the lakes that are really missing out this year.  Syracuse has still not hit an inch yet.  Memphis will after tonight.

I also couldn't help but notice while going through all my maps that it looks like Denver will see their third snowstorm of the season this week.  And this one looks like a good one with my early call of 8-14 inches.  Denver missed out last season so they deserve some of the white stuff this year.

You know how recently the NAO has become the term of the winter for everybody in this area.  In short if the NAO goes negative there is a blocking high over Greenland that alters the jet stream to bring cold air south and storms up the coast.  Well look away if you are squeamish at this forecast.

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Snowy Spotlight

Last year I had a fascination with Syracuse and focused on the snowiest city in the United States.  They ended up receiving 179 inches.  It was their fourth snowiest winter in recorded history.  Guess it was a good pick.  However, this year marks our second year of picking a snowy location following their season as well as ours.  And even though I will continue to monitor Syracuse, this year I will be following the season of Houghton, Michigan.

Houghton is located in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan on the Keweenaw Peninsula.  Is there anything better for a winter lover than to be located on a peninsula in the middle of Lake Superior?  With a population of about 8,000 and a town across the Portage Lake Canal of about 5,000, the area is big enough to be incorporated into our snowiest cities/towns.  In fact, if you thought Syracuse was snowy with 179 inches last year, Houghton averaged over 200.  They are said to be one of the snowiest, non-elevated, populated areas in the country.  And they embrace winter.  Michigan Tech, located in Houghton, has a winter carnival every year to celebrate winter that draws thousands of tourists.  The students even get days off from school.    Get this.  The bridge that connects the two towns has two levels in winter, one for vehicle traffic and the lower level for snowmobile traffic.  Pretty cool.

They love winter and celebrate the season.  This is a place I can appreciate.  That’s why I will spend this season, as long as it goes, following this very isolated area.  They haven’t received a lot of snow so far as lake-effect snow has yet to kick into gear.  Normally December is a strong month for that.  As of now they have received 18 inches with a chance for a couple this weekend.  

They keep great records, another sign of how much they enjoy the season and have more webcams throughout the area because of the school and their numerous outdoor trails than I have seen in most small cities.  Should be a fun little side project.  Besides, the more I see the long range models for this area, the longer I think we won’t be dealing with much.

I have added on the right a running tally that will monitor this friendly competition between Syracuse and Houghton.  Just for kicks, notice the complete domination that our area has right now over Syracuse.  Won't last long but funny to see.  

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Philly Phorecast

It would appear that many people took the October snowstorm as a sign that winter was going to rear its ugly head early and often.  Now we are approaching one month later without the slightest hint of winter weather or for that matter, any arctic air.  How long will this pattern of slightly above average temperatures last?  Indications are we might not see anything significant for at least another few weeks.  That would put us right in the middle of December, a good starting point for others to weigh in with their ideas.

The Philly Four have put out their 2011-12 winter predictions and even though it is after the first snowfall (and after my predictions), I will give them all a pass.  I watched the predictions and jotted down some notes to see who will really do the overall best this year.

Here are your contenders.

In the first corner we have 46 year-old Kathy Orr hailing from northern New York.  She has been chief meteorologist for CBS in Philadelphia since 2003.

In corner two from Long Island we bring you tough talkin 54 year-old John Bolaris.  He has been chief at Fox Philly since 2007 and has worked before at rival channel 10.

In corner three we have ourselves an accomplished triathlete in Cecily Tynan.  A well-known face throughout Philadelphia, the 42 year-old has been with the station since 1995.

In the last corner we have local favorite Glenn “Hurricane” Schwartz.  He has been chief at NBC since 2002 and has worked across the country including The Weather Channel and has earned many well-respected awards.

I want to see bold predictions.  Take a stand.  Nobody predicted the last two winters to be as snowy as they were.  Two years ago the all-time record was broken and last season was the 8^th snowiest.  Anybody want to go big again?  We will go in numeric order.

CBS:

December: Average Temps, Little Snowfall

January: Below Average Temps, Below Average Snowfall

February: Above Average Temps, Above Average Snowfall

March:  Above Average Snowfall

Bold Predictions:  Very small chance for a white Christmas.  Two 6+ inch storms between late January and late February.

Total:  21-28 Inches

FOX:

Late December-January:  Snowy and Cold

February:  Ice

March:  Possible Super Storm of 15+ inches

Total:  24-30 Inches, 30-40 Berks-Lehigh

ABC

Cold First Half of Season

Storms Take Inland Track

More Ice Storms

Total:  22-28 Inches

NBC:

December:  Below Average Temps, 10 inches

January:  Below Average Temps, 14 inches

February:  Average Temps, 12 inches

March:  Above Average Temps, No Snow

Total:  30-40 Inches with one +10

Go no further Hurricane, I love the boldness factor here.  Not only does he go well above average (we will get to this shortly) but also gives exact totals by month.  Impressive.  And the boldest statement has to go to JB at Fox for thinking there is a chance for a monster snowstorm in March.  I can see a storm but 15 inches?  Wow.

CBS took the most moderate approach.  Nothing was out of the ordinary but they also put themselves out there with certain claims.  ABC on the other hand falls flat for my liking.  Not only did they make no serious predictions, the ones they did make don’t make a lot of sense.  They have the city receiving at to above average snow yet say storms will take an inland track giving Philadelphia more ice.  I agreed with this statement in my predictions BUT with this thinking, said Philadelphia would receive below average snow totals.  If ABC is predicting that kind of snow, then there must be a few storms that do not track inland or one very big coastal storm.  Either way, their lack of specifics makes it hard for them to be a contender.

If I circle back for a minute, I’d like to get into what the average snow is for the city.  Oddly enough all four stations had something different for average snow.  Not sure how that is but you do have to consider that after every season, that new total has to be averaged into the past recorded totals.  With that said I will go with the middle number and say Philadelphia averages 22 inches.  Nobody knows the actually average but we do know it has been on the rise.

And again to reiterate something I already posted, here at LVW we also like to go bold.  Maybe I need my own nickname.  I said at or less than average for Philadelphia. 

LVW

Total:  22 or less

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