Retiring A Name

There is no question that there will never be another tropical storm named Sandy.  By now we have all seen the pictures of the absolute destruction that this hybrid storm delivered to much of the east coast.  In many areas things will never be the same.  It will take a long time to begin the process of cleaning up and rebuilding.  Unfortunately those of us who followed this storm knew it would be like no other.

I hesitate to ever use the term Perfect Storm.  There is no real classification for what makes a storm perfect.  This one was probably about as close as you are going to get where all the ingredients came together at the exact same time to cause a one in a hundred years storm.  It really was quite incredible, and I doubt we will ever see something like this again for our area.

Fortunately for this general area, we got pretty lucky.  Because the storm took almost direct aim at us, many of the worst parts of the storm moved in a different direction.  The heaviest rains stayed on the southwest side of the storm which was just to our south through most of Maryland and Virginia.  The winds stayed on the northeast side until the storm came onshore and bypassed over top of us.  The damage locally along with outages were sporadic.  In fact for me personally I usually see more problems after a strong line of thunderstorms pass.  However this was not the case for a lot of people.

I will start to sound like a broken record but we are moving into that time of season, hell I'm pretty sure Sandy already welcomed it, when storms start moving up the coast and give us the classic nor'easter.  In fact I'm not sure if they technically will say a hurricane made landfall in New Jersey since the storm transferred over.  Not that it matters.  Often they say it takes a storm to shift the pattern.  Did this one do it?  I guess we won't know yet.

However, the NAO shows a strong negative number early next week.  With that you get the idea that something could be brewing.  The model is starting to pick up something.  I will leave it at that.  The point I want to make is that the northeast takes punishment all winter long from these storms.  They are nothing like what just occurred but nonetheless the principal is the same.  Storms spin with the counterclockwise rotation that will push water inland.  Flooding is very common near the coast as is wind damage with winds upwards of hurricane strength.  The problem now is everything that was there to protect properties and land is gone.  The dunes are gone.  The layout of the shore has changed.  This is why, as cleanup continues, any sign of a coastal storm is going to be cause for concern.

It is going to be a long road to recovery for many places.  Some might never recover.  I wonder if some will ever come back.  The last thing they need is another onset of water rushing straight in. 

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Prep Time

As an amateur fan of weather and the unpredictability of the science behind it I've taken to my little corner of the worldwide web to make numerous posts about local, region, national and the occasional international story.  In that time I've had the opportunity to post about events such as the Joplin tornado and the historic Vermont flooding last season.  Both events I still follow today.  And within that same span I've made posts about other disastrous situations caused by the forces of weather.

One of my greatest passions involving weather is to see the formation, development and tracks of winter storms that ride the coast and produce some of the worst snowstorms for major cities in the world.  While these storms are inherently dangerous they are mainly nothing more than a nuisance for most.  As we approach the time of year when the summer/fall pattern shift into the typical winter pattern I always get excited to see what takes shape.  I'm not very happy at the moment.

Instead of covering the dangers of mother nature from afar it is looking like this area will be the one being covered by the rest of the country.  And what is forming is anything but your common storm.

Yesterday I made the genius post that my gut was saying the storm was going to either head out to sea or form to our north.  This is why you don't take random guesses based on feelings.  There was a reason I continued to say that the incredible negativity of the NAO was a huge factor with this storm.  Because of that high pressure sitting over the North Atlantic the winds will steer whatever is left of the hurricane directly into some area of the northeast.  That appears to not even be up for debate anymore.  The only question is where.

The latest model, which the NWS apparently also agrees, shows the storm as a hurricane hitting New Jersey sometime between late Monday and early Tuesday.  Here are two images that show projected landfall.

The storm at this point started to make a westward turn after continually moving north and even slightly east.  You can see the heavy precip over DE, NJ, PA and eastern MD.  Also take note of the black isobar lines that indicate wind strength.  The closer together, the windier the storm.  Needless to say this would be a hell of a hit for a lot of people including all the major cities because we also have to remember storm surge will be a massive issue.    

The second image follows the first and shows Sandy making landfall in central NJ.  It starts to become hard to see places anymore with all the lines.  However look at the winds and how far they extend.  We have to remember that these systems are usually very large and most states in the northeast are relatively small.  Even if the storm misses you directly it will still cause problems with wind and rain. 




I want to highlight something else about this storm for some perspective.  I know there are still a few days before this thing makes an impact for us but you have to prepare now for a worst case scenario as this could be a historic storm.  Notice the 943 and 942 in red under the L in these images.  That is the pressure of the storm.  The lower the number the stronger and more intense the storm is.  Normal pressure on a sunny, clear day is 1012.  That number is anything but close to that.  Katrina when it hit New Orleans was at 920.  The pressure on this storm if this would end up being accurate would normally equate to a category four hurricane.  Think about that for a moment.  That is the kind of energy this storm will have when it slams into the coast.

I'm not going to post all the other models mainly because every one I have the ability to look at shows the same thing.  Anywhere from southern NJ to New York City would be in line for landfall.  These scenarios would be horrible.

The good news is there is still a good 72 hours before we know for sure what is going to happen with this storm.  The bad news is that as each day goes by and the model runs become fewer and fewer the better the chance of somebody taking a major hit from Maryland to Massachusetts.

Here is the plan.  Pay attention to the forecast.  Tomorrow night should be a good indicator.  By Saturday we should have a very good estimate of where the storm will hit and the likely impacts.  Begin the initial preparations (batteries, candles, extra water) until we know more.  I of course will be following very closely.    

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The Storm

Let me preface the rest of this post by stating the following.  Sandy is spinning near Jamaica.  The main storm has not even formed yet.  The NAO is still extremely negative.  All the ingredients are there, they only need to come into place.

I will try to keep the rest of this more visual.  We are still a few days away so not every map is up and running with the storm.  Here we go.

The models had Sandy moving up the coast with most not having much of an impact yesterday.  Consensus states with that NAO forecast it's only a matter of time before the models pick up on something potentially big. 

Here is where the latest North American model puts the formation of the low on Wednesday. 

Couple of quick notes.  This is not Sandy.  This is the secondary low that will pull moisture from whatever is left of the tropical system and move it back over New England.  Sandy for now is moving out to sea.  Even though it forms to our north we would still be in line for showers, cool air and a good amount of wind.

And the Canada model which suggests a new low forms off New Jersey.  The run is shorter so this is the last image.

If you follow the Naval model I hope you live on a hill.  This image below is not the formation of a second low.  It is the actual hurricane.  This would be a horrible scenario.

Here is the rainfall predictor from the National Weather Service for the next five days.  It doesn't take a genius to see the track of the storm they are leaning towards.  Figure with this chart somewhere between four and five inches.

It is way too early to try and guess what is going to happen.  The best bet it to watch and keep updated.  My personal hunch is that we don't see the worst of this or anything even close to the worst of it.  I think Sandy pulls away from the coast with another low forming due to the deep trough.  That nor'easter becomes more of the classic storm we tend to see from now until March but is too far north for this area to be impacted.  Of course I could be way off so keep informed.  Like I said at the start, it does have the possibility to become a massive storm.

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It's October

October is one of those classic transitional months similar to April in spring.  Nothing is surprising.

The current rainfall total in Reading is 5.16 inches and with a storm coming up the coast next week it would not be out of the question to see the end result be something closer to 7 inches for the month.

The highest temperature recorded this month was 79 which isn't much of a surprise.  I generally recall hitting 80 in previous years, but I could be wrong.  We did dip below 32 on the 13th.  Normally it takes a little longer to get below freezing temperatures.  However we have not gone under since and in fact, if the month ended today the high and low temperature averages would be the exact same as the normal monthly average.

Now for the uniqueness of the changing seasons.  If you were around the area on Friday you would have been well aware of the tornado warning for Berks County.  It was definitely odd.  It happened at night making it impossible to see anything coming and from a second story building you easily understand how people can get trapped with no place to go.  I had the radar continuously playing and saw no signs of a rotating storm.  In the end there weren't even reports of wind damage but a tornado was confirmed in Lancaster County who were not under a warning.  And for the 180 degree turn, the word snow appeared in the forecast this morning.

I missed the screen grab but that is the last on my list of checkoffs to tell me winter is approaching except for actually seeing flakes.  If we remember last October, snow is not out of the question so why not sharpen our skills for the rest of the season by tracking an early coastal storm.

The GFS currently has tropical storm Sandy push straight north up the coast but not make an impact on land.  A new low forms east of New England and then back tracks back on to land.  However, there is some disparity between the runs and the NAO forecast.  If we remember from previous winters, a negative NAO causes a blocking pattern over Greenland and cause the jet stream to dip and make a deep curl up the coast.  It brings storms up the coast while also drawing cold air down from the north.  The forecast NAO is at one of the lowest I can remember for the next six days.

The temperatures could struggle to get out of the 40's next week.  I would say snow is unlikely but an interesting storm could still take shape.  Now we wait and watch the tracking.      

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Quick Hits

We are into October which by my calculations means the first snowstorm for our area is a few weeks away if last year is any indication.  This weekend won't be warm but snow it will not.

It will be snowing in Montana.  Great Falls is looking at two to four early season inches.  And hey, I saw the boys up at the Mount Washington observation station posted a few snowy pictures themselves.

If you haven't been following tropical system Nadine you aren't alone.  It has done little to bother anything other than a few ships and maybe alter some flight patterns.  Yet this pesky storm will still go into the records books.  Nadine formed as a tropical depression on September 11th.  It has since gone back and forth from a tropical storm to a hurricane three times and has looped its own previous track twice.  It is currently spinning as a tropical storm in the middle of the Atlantic 21 days later.  By Friday it should finally get propelled north into cooler waters and become sub tropical.  Nevertheless the storm will be in the top five of longest durations of an Atlantic tropical system in recorded history.

I was slacking on the big event in September when New York City boroughs were hit by two tornadoes that seemed to come out of nowhere.  There were calls for severe weather that day but I believe these ended up happening basically out ahead of the supposed violent storms.  Here is one that came off the water into the Breezy Point section of Queens.

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