The Storm

Let me preface the rest of this post by stating the following.  Sandy is spinning near Jamaica.  The main storm has not even formed yet.  The NAO is still extremely negative.  All the ingredients are there, they only need to come into place.

I will try to keep the rest of this more visual.  We are still a few days away so not every map is up and running with the storm.  Here we go.

The models had Sandy moving up the coast with most not having much of an impact yesterday.  Consensus states with that NAO forecast it's only a matter of time before the models pick up on something potentially big. 

Here is where the latest North American model puts the formation of the low on Wednesday. 

Couple of quick notes.  This is not Sandy.  This is the secondary low that will pull moisture from whatever is left of the tropical system and move it back over New England.  Sandy for now is moving out to sea.  Even though it forms to our north we would still be in line for showers, cool air and a good amount of wind.

And the Canada model which suggests a new low forms off New Jersey.  The run is shorter so this is the last image.

If you follow the Naval model I hope you live on a hill.  This image below is not the formation of a second low.  It is the actual hurricane.  This would be a horrible scenario.

Here is the rainfall predictor from the National Weather Service for the next five days.  It doesn't take a genius to see the track of the storm they are leaning towards.  Figure with this chart somewhere between four and five inches.

It is way too early to try and guess what is going to happen.  The best bet it to watch and keep updated.  My personal hunch is that we don't see the worst of this or anything even close to the worst of it.  I think Sandy pulls away from the coast with another low forming due to the deep trough.  That nor'easter becomes more of the classic storm we tend to see from now until March but is too far north for this area to be impacted.  Of course I could be way off so keep informed.  Like I said at the start, it does have the possibility to become a massive storm.