Prep Time

As an amateur fan of weather and the unpredictability of the science behind it I've taken to my little corner of the worldwide web to make numerous posts about local, region, national and the occasional international story.  In that time I've had the opportunity to post about events such as the Joplin tornado and the historic Vermont flooding last season.  Both events I still follow today.  And within that same span I've made posts about other disastrous situations caused by the forces of weather.

One of my greatest passions involving weather is to see the formation, development and tracks of winter storms that ride the coast and produce some of the worst snowstorms for major cities in the world.  While these storms are inherently dangerous they are mainly nothing more than a nuisance for most.  As we approach the time of year when the summer/fall pattern shift into the typical winter pattern I always get excited to see what takes shape.  I'm not very happy at the moment.

Instead of covering the dangers of mother nature from afar it is looking like this area will be the one being covered by the rest of the country.  And what is forming is anything but your common storm.

Yesterday I made the genius post that my gut was saying the storm was going to either head out to sea or form to our north.  This is why you don't take random guesses based on feelings.  There was a reason I continued to say that the incredible negativity of the NAO was a huge factor with this storm.  Because of that high pressure sitting over the North Atlantic the winds will steer whatever is left of the hurricane directly into some area of the northeast.  That appears to not even be up for debate anymore.  The only question is where.

The latest model, which the NWS apparently also agrees, shows the storm as a hurricane hitting New Jersey sometime between late Monday and early Tuesday.  Here are two images that show projected landfall.

The storm at this point started to make a westward turn after continually moving north and even slightly east.  You can see the heavy precip over DE, NJ, PA and eastern MD.  Also take note of the black isobar lines that indicate wind strength.  The closer together, the windier the storm.  Needless to say this would be a hell of a hit for a lot of people including all the major cities because we also have to remember storm surge will be a massive issue.    

The second image follows the first and shows Sandy making landfall in central NJ.  It starts to become hard to see places anymore with all the lines.  However look at the winds and how far they extend.  We have to remember that these systems are usually very large and most states in the northeast are relatively small.  Even if the storm misses you directly it will still cause problems with wind and rain. 




I want to highlight something else about this storm for some perspective.  I know there are still a few days before this thing makes an impact for us but you have to prepare now for a worst case scenario as this could be a historic storm.  Notice the 943 and 942 in red under the L in these images.  That is the pressure of the storm.  The lower the number the stronger and more intense the storm is.  Normal pressure on a sunny, clear day is 1012.  That number is anything but close to that.  Katrina when it hit New Orleans was at 920.  The pressure on this storm if this would end up being accurate would normally equate to a category four hurricane.  Think about that for a moment.  That is the kind of energy this storm will have when it slams into the coast.

I'm not going to post all the other models mainly because every one I have the ability to look at shows the same thing.  Anywhere from southern NJ to New York City would be in line for landfall.  These scenarios would be horrible.

The good news is there is still a good 72 hours before we know for sure what is going to happen with this storm.  The bad news is that as each day goes by and the model runs become fewer and fewer the better the chance of somebody taking a major hit from Maryland to Massachusetts.

Here is the plan.  Pay attention to the forecast.  Tomorrow night should be a good indicator.  By Saturday we should have a very good estimate of where the storm will hit and the likely impacts.  Begin the initial preparations (batteries, candles, extra water) until we know more.  I of course will be following very closely.