March Advisory

March snowfall is certainly not uncommon.  In fact, our average March and April totals are comparable to that of November and December.  While we probably won't be dealing with anything big, March is proving that it still is and will be a relevant month for winter.

Yesterday was no exception as we saw our first accumulating snowfall of the month.  I normally always remember a snowfall in March but for some reason it always seemed to be around the first week.  This time we had to wait until the midpoint.  The snow moved in steadily and as the flakes became bigger, accumulations began.  Most places from Berks through Lehigh and Bucks ended with between 1-2 inches.  Now two days later, we prepare for more.

TOMORROW

The National Weather Service has posted advisories, watches and warnings all throughout the Northeast ahead of the storm tomorrow.  Like in every other scenario we normally see, temperatures will play a huge factor as well as timing.  Right now only the Lehigh Valley and Berks County have advisories posted.  I don’t know if that is a sign or not.  What I can tell you is that if I watch the short term model (which was totally incorrect for the last storm) I would be cautious to say that this doesn’t become more of a winter event as opposed to a rain event.  Temperatures for this will probably not get above 35.  Higher elevated areas and select locals might not see a change over until well into the day.

 

The current advisory for the area is for 1-2 inches.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the final totals were more likely in the 2-4 range.  Again, a lot depends on timing so I can see why the totals are a bit lower as that is a safer range.  Either way I’d expect a few issues out on the road.  There were certainly issues yesterday which could have had more to do with the surprise factor since basically nobody in the media mentioned much about a chance of accumulating snow. 

If everything goes right, Allentown has a very good chance to pass the 20 inch mark for the season.  It doesn’t sound like much, but I didn’t think it was going to happen and it is at least a respectable winter season.  And of course, New England will get hammered again by the storm.  Many larger cities are on the verge of topping 100 inches this year.

AHEAD

I ran the temperature outlook through the rest of the month into the beginning of April.  Hopefully nobody is looking for warmer temperatures yet.  The below averages temperatures continue to sit over much of the east.  Not only that but there appears to be more opportunities for snow at least for the next two weeks including one around the 25th that could blanket North Carolina. 

Since I mentioned it earlier I figured I would give the numbers.  These are for Allentown since they actually keep solid records.

November – December:  7.7 inches

January – February:  9.1 inches

March – Present:  1.1 inches

 

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Not Done Yet

Let's face it.  This wasn't our year.  All our events ended up being fairly minor and even though it was a snowier year than last, most areas will still be well shy of the average.

Most if not all of New England swung in the complete opposite direction.  Even after being labeled a southern snow, somehow New England managed to rack up an additional 10 to 20 inches as moisture spread back from the coast in this most recent storm.  It's almost amazing.  There are many cities that will end up finishing with higher totals close to the Atlantic than cities near the Great Lakes.

Here is another thing I haven't had a chance to mention.  We knew this last storm was going to be incredibly tricky.  Most places I saw said it was one of the hardest storms to forecast for many different factors.  They proved themselves right on that.  Hope nobody was too excited for snow in D.C. as the 12+ inches forecasted turned out to be a big nothing.  The same could be said for Maryland and many places in southern PA.  If it weren't for the wrap back factor the forecast would have been a complete whiff.

Now to my point slash rant.  The models really sucked in calling this storm in terms of precipitation.  The North American was extremely poor.  The snowfall forecast was all over the place.  Some went real high and others stayed low.  Regardless, every model showed accumulating snows for this area.  As poorly as the models did, so did the meteorologists.  Sorry folks.  Normally I understand it's not an exact science but the fact of it is, it is a science that is being studied by professionals.  If you can't figure out what a storm is going to do outside of looking at models then you really aren't that different from me.  Raise your hand.  Take a step front.  And own up to blowing it this time.


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MARCH

I'd love to tell you there is a snowstorm in our future.  There is.  At what point in the future, I don't know.  I'm thinking around December 8th.  However, March is looking to be a cooler than average month (remind me to check back on this when April begins).

There are some slight chances for snowfall throughout the next week and a half.  Nothing interesting.  It looks like we are on the wrong side of the rain/snow line this weekend and even then it's a minor event at best.  It will get colder though especially on Thursday.  There looks to be another colder streak towards the end of the month.

This is the time of year where the northeast tends to deal with stagnant temperatures while the rest of the country bops up and down.  You wouldn't really know that watching the local news since a swing of ten degrees to them is usually worthy of a lead story full of color adjectives.

Case in point, Rapid City.  Without diving into it too much, they will struggle to hit 40 tomorrow, approach 70 by Thursday and could struggle to get back to 40 by Sunday.  Kansas City?  47-67-72-56.  Those are predicted highs for four straight days this week.  It's normal.

I will stick with the rest of March being relatively cool for our area.  But cool doesn't get us snowstorms and an hour more of evening sunlight won't help either.  I'm not writing winter off yet but if I were it would look something like, W-I-N-T-E-R is O-V-E-

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Morning Update

I would feel comfortable in saying this is probably the last winter storm we will be dealing with this season.  With that said, it has also been one of the strangest to try and follow. 

If I would have started a post yesterday or Sunday I would have lead with this being a southern storm.  The models continued to trend to a large storm that barely made it above the Mason-Dixon line.  Most forecasters suggested something similar and warned that a move north was not likely.  Except runs have consistently moved the precipitation shield north.  Now places along the coast from New Jersey to Boston could see more than two inches of rainfall, possibly closer to three.

Now what about the snow?  It is still a very tricky proposition.  As of 6 a.m. the only counties in our area given watches are Chester and Delaware.  Everybody else will have to wait until Mt. Holly gathers more information.  My guess is watches start popping up by the noon time model runs when it appears more likely that a larger area of snowfall is likely.

Here is where it gets interesting.  When is it ever not?  The bulk of the heavy moisture still misses most of our area to the south.  I don't think that is going to change.  However it expands greatly to cover most all of eastern PA with the heaviest again towards the south.  Instead of going from west to east and out to sea, it kicks back a lot of moisture that will cause additional snowfall in some areas and flooding closer to the coast.  The kick back will greatly enhance moisture especially areas towards New Jersey.  So basically to our south gets hit hard and as the storm strengthens the area to our east gets hit hard.  We happen to be just close enough to get something from the original southern piece of energy and the coastal storm.

Here comes part two.  The likelihood of snow is far greater now than two days ago.  Except with the new dynamic storm, temperatures will be a bigger issue than originally anticipated.  Places that had been set for a big snowstorm could end up seeing more of a rainstorm.  Other areas that had been looking to get nothing, could wind up with 6 or 8 inches. 

This storm has been one for the books in terms of model runs.  Nothing agrees and it changes so often that anything is possible.  Usually there would be agreement by now.  Even though I'm not a huge fan, The Weather Channel has been the first to jump on recent runs.  When I went to bed last night only Philadelphia was in line to see snow.  Now their 6-12 inch line spreads from Lancaster into Chester and places just south of Reading.  They have D.C. in the 10-15 inch range. 

I think in time other services will come around.  The one thing that is difficult in creating maps in you have various offices making calls for their particular area.  Take our western area for example.  Berks and Chester are the farthest counties west that the Mt. Holly office covers.  Go into Lancaster or Schuylkill county and you are dealing with the State College office.  So take a look at the current snowfall predictor from both offices.

State College

Mt. Holly

State College totals seems accurate in that there will be heavy snow to the south.  I think Mount Holly has to bump their totals a bit.  It might also be a stretch for the coast to see 2-4.  My main point with this is even if you follow the totals from State College over in a straight line it's hard not to say Reading isn't in an area closer to 3-4. 

There are still too many questions.  All I can say is it looks like we will get something.  How much could be the question.  Anything over five and I would be surprised.  Either way it is a nasty way to end the season.  Lots of snow for some.  Lots of rain for others.  Coastal flooding in areas that don't need to see anything else and very strong winds. 

I updated this morning because I don't believe I will be able to get much in tonight.  I will at least try to get in an update.

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