Morning Update

I would feel comfortable in saying this is probably the last winter storm we will be dealing with this season.  With that said, it has also been one of the strangest to try and follow. 

If I would have started a post yesterday or Sunday I would have lead with this being a southern storm.  The models continued to trend to a large storm that barely made it above the Mason-Dixon line.  Most forecasters suggested something similar and warned that a move north was not likely.  Except runs have consistently moved the precipitation shield north.  Now places along the coast from New Jersey to Boston could see more than two inches of rainfall, possibly closer to three.

Now what about the snow?  It is still a very tricky proposition.  As of 6 a.m. the only counties in our area given watches are Chester and Delaware.  Everybody else will have to wait until Mt. Holly gathers more information.  My guess is watches start popping up by the noon time model runs when it appears more likely that a larger area of snowfall is likely.

Here is where it gets interesting.  When is it ever not?  The bulk of the heavy moisture still misses most of our area to the south.  I don't think that is going to change.  However it expands greatly to cover most all of eastern PA with the heaviest again towards the south.  Instead of going from west to east and out to sea, it kicks back a lot of moisture that will cause additional snowfall in some areas and flooding closer to the coast.  The kick back will greatly enhance moisture especially areas towards New Jersey.  So basically to our south gets hit hard and as the storm strengthens the area to our east gets hit hard.  We happen to be just close enough to get something from the original southern piece of energy and the coastal storm.

Here comes part two.  The likelihood of snow is far greater now than two days ago.  Except with the new dynamic storm, temperatures will be a bigger issue than originally anticipated.  Places that had been set for a big snowstorm could end up seeing more of a rainstorm.  Other areas that had been looking to get nothing, could wind up with 6 or 8 inches. 

This storm has been one for the books in terms of model runs.  Nothing agrees and it changes so often that anything is possible.  Usually there would be agreement by now.  Even though I'm not a huge fan, The Weather Channel has been the first to jump on recent runs.  When I went to bed last night only Philadelphia was in line to see snow.  Now their 6-12 inch line spreads from Lancaster into Chester and places just south of Reading.  They have D.C. in the 10-15 inch range. 

I think in time other services will come around.  The one thing that is difficult in creating maps in you have various offices making calls for their particular area.  Take our western area for example.  Berks and Chester are the farthest counties west that the Mt. Holly office covers.  Go into Lancaster or Schuylkill county and you are dealing with the State College office.  So take a look at the current snowfall predictor from both offices.

State College

Mt. Holly

State College totals seems accurate in that there will be heavy snow to the south.  I think Mount Holly has to bump their totals a bit.  It might also be a stretch for the coast to see 2-4.  My main point with this is even if you follow the totals from State College over in a straight line it's hard not to say Reading isn't in an area closer to 3-4. 

There are still too many questions.  All I can say is it looks like we will get something.  How much could be the question.  Anything over five and I would be surprised.  Either way it is a nasty way to end the season.  Lots of snow for some.  Lots of rain for others.  Coastal flooding in areas that don't need to see anything else and very strong winds. 

I updated this morning because I don't believe I will be able to get much in tonight.  I will at least try to get in an update.