A Running Hike

This past weekend (a week ago) many of us awoke to yet another fresh batch of snow Saturday morning.  I had planned for a few days to use the weekend to run on a trail, something I haven't done since October.  The most likely destination would be the Schuylkill River Trail near Hamburg.  Except I had something different in mind.

I pulled into the parking area still covered in fresh snow from the night before.  It was noticeably deeper than from where I had started at home.  Also noticeable was the lack of cars.  As in I'm the only one there.

The pictures end here.  I would have had some awesome shots, but as I now use my watch as my guide the phone/camera stays locked in the car.

Out I headed along the densely tree lined path of untouched snow.  The wind every so often would rattle the fluffy snow off tree branches adding to the picturesque scenery.  Two miles in I stopped.  Now the decision.

As mentioned before I haven't been on a trail in months.  Running the path in itself was a change.  Doing anything with challenging terrain and elevation changes hadn't been done since my last Mount Penn trail run.  That's why during the week I decided to run the Appalachian Trail.

Here it is in front of me.  The issue now is I hadn't planned on doing the trail in snow.  It's slippery.  I can't see obstacles.  And I've never been on it before.  But here I am and there it is.  Let's go.

I hiked the first three quarters of a mile.  I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be runnable for me regardless of the snow.  I didn't go more than a mile onto the trail.  This was more of a scouting hike/run for the future.  According to the watch which is certainly accurate the ascent was 850 feet.  Again, this is in less than a mile.  I reached 1,266 feet.  Had I continued I'm sure I would have hit at least 1,400 in another mile.  What's nice to know is that once you reach this level the trail flattens out to a point that is definitely runnable.  I however turned around.

Having not done anything close to this type of climbing in awhile I could already feel my climbing muscles straining.  However I did decide to run back down to the river trail.  It was interesting to say the least.  No real issues except I had to run almost sideways at some points to keep from completely sliding down the trail.  And if I did start to slide I had virtually nothing to keep me from going for a long and uncomfortable ride.  It's funny how long it takes to go up and how quickly I'm back at the bottom.  Either way it was well worth it.  At my highest point the snow was stuck to everything.  It was almost as if all of it that fell glued on to every tree and ground shrub there was on the mountain.  Would have made for a cool picture.

As I ran back on the trial towards my car I realized at some point during my descent I had injured the bottom of my left foot as now each step was becoming more painful.  I don't know what it was or how it happened, but it didn't become an issue until I was on the flat trail.  Outside of that you really feel the climb in your upper legs. 

If you ever want to get away head for the woods.  It wasn't until I had almost reached the parking lot before I saw another human.  I probably could have went miles on the trail without seeing anybody.  Didn't even see any animals.  Plus it was dead quiet.

I probably would have been back there today enjoying another snowy run as a few more inches fell.  Instead I was resting for the run that prompted this trail test in the first place.  Tomorrow is the first of the 2014 Mt. Penn trail runs.  It's not going to be pretty, but that's kind of the point.  The actual temperature should be around 10 with somewhere between 6 and 10 inches of snow on the ground.  What else would you rather be doing on a Sunday morning?

Read more...

Spectator Sport

I’m frustrated and disappointed with this past storm.  I shouldn’t be, but I am.  As I’ve gotten older I generally don’t complain anymore when a big storm misses us.  I’ll take snow over no snow any day.  However this one was different.  And I’m going to complain.

There is nothing quite like watching your neighbors to the south and east sit under heavy banding of snow for hours while you get the little parasite snow attaching itself for the ride.  The heavy snow is literally right there and yet it just won’t move over you.  It’s the difference between four inches and 14 inches.  Now all you can do is watch as the same areas get blasted over and over again. 

What makes this worse is we knew this band was going to set up somewhere.  We also knew it was going to probably be somewhere around the Philadelphia region.  What makes this a square kick to the groin is how many stations and sites jumped on the big one for our area that morning.  If it wasn’t for these numbers like 8-12 or a foot plus I probably would have been fine.  I don’t claim to be a professional at this but I take pride in having a better than average amount of knowledge.  So when totals are surging for areas including us I have to assume they know something I don’t.  Especially when the storm is practically at our doorstep and totals continue to increase.

Now here is why I shouldn’t be frustrated.  As the night progressed on Monday I decided against original intentions to make a post about the upcoming storm.  I wasn’t planning on it, but I figured it would be good for me to take a look and throw out my two cents.  I’m not sure I could have been anymore accurate especially compared to some others out there.

I could have started and ended the whole post with the paragraph after my 9:55 update.  Let’s dissect.  

First sentence summary:  Heavy precip falls from Baltimore to Philadelphia into central NJ and Long Island.

What happened?  The heavy precip fell from Baltimore to Philadelphia into central NJ and through to Long Island.  The following map illustrates my point.

This is the water equivalent to what fell as snow.  The darker the green the higher the amounts.  It starts at Baltimore, gets much darker through Philadelphia and into central New Jersey before finishing with pockets of green in Long Island.

Second sentence summary:  Lots of double digit snowfalls in SE PA and much of NJ.

What happened?  There were a lot.  And remember the forecast from almost all media outlets was 6-12 inches which means we would all have to be on the high side.  And come to think about it the 6-12 total range is pretty lame.  Think about it this way, that's the same as predicting 1-7 inches.

Third sentence summary:  I dare say somebody hits 14-18 inches.

What happened?  Brookhaven in PA with 14.8 and Manalapan in NJ with 15.8 lead the way in totals.

Predictions:

Allentown 5-8 (Finished with 5.7)

Reading 4-7  (Finished with 4.5) Very questionable - most places around the city were at 6

Philadelphia- Digging out (Finished at 13.5 easily the most for the major cities)

And that's just that one paragraph.  In fact if you read the post above that it's even more oddly accurate.  Like how I wanted to put us in the 4-5 range which is more accurate than what I ended up saying which still was right.  I also said if you look at the pattern this winter it makes sense for Philadelphia to be in the heavy snow.  They were smack dab in the middle.  

Even when I whiffed I hit a home run.  I missed on my AC prediction as they missed the heavy stuff but in the same sentence I said Asbury Park which is in the same county as Manalapan who had the highest reported total in the area.  No reports came from Asbury Park but the second highest total also came from that county.

I guess my point with this is even though I wasn't thrilled with the outcome outside I should be pleased with what I put together.  Not only that but maybe instead of spending all this time focusing on what everybody else is saying and predicting I should consider what I think just as valid.  Because it might not happen often but if anybody had this one pretty damn accurate it included me.

 

Read more...

Steady Climb

If you don't read or have a television yet somehow use the internet for weather updates you might not be aware that another "snowstorm" is coming.  However once again it's not going to be the big one for us locally.

A couple days ago you wouldn't have heard much if anything about snow today outside of a chance of flurries.  How things change quickly.  Now winter storm warnings are spread throughout the east coast with even blizzard conditions and talks of a foot of snow.  That's a lot of flurries.

The most basic principle with this event is that with a fresh batch of cold air in place all you need to do is look to see where the heaviest precipitation is going to fall to figure out who is in line for a 10+ inch event.  All signs point towards places closer to the coast from New Jersey, Long Island and along the immediate coast up to Provincetown.  The call in our area is certainly tougher.

The trend had continually taken the moisture further west when two days ago all of the precipitation was out over the Atlantic.  That's a good sign for us to get at least a decent snow formidable to what we have continually seen this winter.  It also puts us close to the sharp cutoff point between one area seeing very light snow and another 20 miles away in heavy bands.

The place to watch for me is central to southern New Jersey.  They seem to be in a perfect spot with this storm to have locations see over a foot.  In fact unless I see a change when the next model run comes in I'd put a circle around areas from Atlantic City to Asbury Park as my winners (especially for areas a bit more local).  To be honest Philadelphia has continually picked up sizable snows from systems like this and basically not much outside of that.  With that in mind an 8-10 inch storm for them just makes sense.  Remember weather is always about patterns.  Some patters lasts for years and others months.  This season that heavy band of snow keeps sitting on the city.

What about us?  Good question.  In fact I'm not even going to answer it until later tonight.  I'm a bit perplexed myself with this call.  I originally would have kept in the 4-5 inch range which is perfectly fine especially when you get these really fluffy snows.  However there are too many variables right now.  Go figure right.  For me this includes being in an area that is trailing the storm meaning we almost have to watch the storm grow backwards as it intensifies off the coast.  Cold, dry air meeting moisture can give a classic case of virga which if we aren't in the heavier bands means it could take longer than anticipated for snow to begin.  And in getting that cold air plunging in from behind the storm it can lead to quick dry slots that won't fill back in.  But our temperatures could be the coldest for any place seeing moderate snow (think in the range of 12-16 degrees) which could drastically increase snow ratios.

What we do know however is that snow is coming.  Whether we get two inches or eight our seasonal totals keep climbing.  I'll always take that.  Plus it gets me closer to winning the non-existent competition of who is closest to the year end snowfall prediction total.  We also know that whatever falls isn't going anywhere unless the wind blows it.  Temperatures are not going to be particularly enjoyable which would suggest I should once again start wearing a coat.

Looks like two more chance of snow between the 26th and 28th.  And yes for the crazies out there the long range does show a coastal storm on February 2nd.

Last model run is coming out.  Update to follow soon.

9:55 PM

Run came in with much heavier precipitation especially from Baltimore to Philadelphia then into central NJ and Long Island.  Have a feeling we see lots of double digit snowfall totals all across the southeast PA and much of NJ region.  Dare I say some areas could go 14-18 inches.  I say it.  Fine line for us still.  However this one did come in heavier and if this trend continues over the course of me sleeping you would have to increase the totals.  I'd like to really narrow it down, but I will go with 5-8 for Allentown and 4-7 Reading.  Philadelphia will be digging out.  That's where I leave that one.

Gets the plows, shovels and blowers ready.  Somebody is going to have a lot of snow piled up by tomorrow night.  Keep a watchful eye since most people will already be at work when the snow begins.  Duration takes this through the afternoon drive home and could be quite heavy with reduced visibility. 

Read more...

Open Post: Snow and Cold

I'm getting this post started tonight with the idea to keep it open and running for the next few days.  The reason is simple.  There is plenty of cold air just about everywhere and a boat load of lake effect snow.  Good golly there are going to be some insane amounts.

- Buffalo has a blizzard warning for almost three days and could see three feet of snow.

- There is some sort of wind chill advisory from the Canadian border to the Gulf of Mexico.

- The Tug Hill region in New York is predicted to receive between three and five feet of snow in the next three days.  A lot for you and me.  A typical winter for the few residents willing to live in this area.

And how many times does the temperature push 50 degrees (or maybe hit 50 today) one day and the low push negative numbers the next day.  Reading, Allentown and surrounding areas could see a 50 degree temperature swing in 24 hours.  That is highly unusual.

I am getting way too excited.  And I'm not getting any snow.  Road trip!  Updates, totals and pictures to follow.  

UPDATE - 1/9 10:18 PM

The snow has ended after a three day lake effect event concluded last night.  I wasn't see any really impressive totals until I checked today.

The winner (for areas that reported and probably are populated) is:

Rodman, NY - They received 60 inches.  Not too bad and exactly at the high end mark of the five foot prediction.  The town is south of Watertown in a great area for lake snow.  Not a great area for meeting a lot of new people. 

In 2nd Place

Copenhagen, NY - They hit 54 inches.  The village sits east of Rodman.  If you clearly made the assumption that the village is named for the city in Denmark here is your answer.  The village of Copenhagen sits in the town of Denmark, New York. 

Others:

Watertown, NY - 47.7 inches.  This is noteworthy because if you drove straight north out of Syracuse it would take about an hour to get to Watertown which would be one of the first real signs of civilization with almost 30,000 people.  That's a lot of snow to shovel for a lot of residents.

Buffalo, NY - 17.6.  Again the amount of streets to clear is the main issue here.  That and the fact that the snow fell with winds hitting 40-50 mph.  A lot of times lake effect snow can be heavy yet peaceful.  Not this time.


MORE NEWS AND NOTES:

Clearly the cold was impressive for much of the country.  Tons of records broken, schools closed and river and lakes frozen.  Reading hit single digits seven days in a row when the normal low is in the low 20's.  However they didn't get to negative numbers.  Allentown did three times. 

The temperature difference between the high and low temperatures between Monday and Tuesday for both Reading and Allentown was 56 degrees.  Keep that bit of knowledge tucked away to see if we ever get close to that big of a swing again.

You want more snow go live near a big lake.  Here are the top five CITIES snowfall rankings so far.

Erie
Buffalo
Grand Rapids
Syracuse
Rochester

If you took the total snowfall this season for Chicago, Minneapolis and Boston combined it would be about one inch more than Erie has received this season.  They could push 200 this year.

Read more...

It Just Won't Quit

When I was a young lad I loved winter.  I loved the cold and the snow.  I loved when you could step outside and see your breath.  If there was a way, I would make it happen inside too.  I stayed up late during snowstorms just so I could watch.  I went out to shovel every 15 minutes so I had a reason to be outside.  All the adults told me to wait until I was older.  See what my feelings on the subject are at that point.  Not more than an hour ago I spent at least ten minutes trying to get the thick layer of ice off my car in order for me to go to get gas needed for tomorrow.  Most of that time was spent trying to carefully remove the ice from around the gas cap in order for it to open.  And as I carefully shuffled around my car removing ice, which was probably in the top three of thickest I've ever seen, I realized something.  I really love winter and nobody can tell me I don't enjoy it.

Our latest winter storm was a good one.  Most places were in the ballpark I suggested.  Allentown hit 7.2 and Reading unofficially hit 6.8.  Philadelphia was in the stronger bands and hit 9.0.  That general area did better than most had predicted.  Totals are updated on the right and are accurate minus Reading.  This one could have been a lot worse.

It started somewhere around 3:00 for me.  It was light and fluffy and blew around easily.  As it fell a bit harder and I left work you could tell the roads were becoming impacted.  Cars drove slow.  By the time I arrived at my mom's as I do with all snow storms, there was a good one to two inches on the ground.  I headed straight inside to change.  First set of business ended up being to push my mom's car into the garage.  Second was to hit the pavements.  It was probably around six.  The snow was falling pretty hard and the winds were strong enough to be a pain when you were heading into them which I was for the first part of the run.  I basically had to look down at the ground for awhile which had me contemplating turning around.  I'm glad I didn't.  It was awesome.

When I got back I snapped this picture mainly because for the longest time as I ran I thought that for whatever reason I was drooling.  I could see with my light that the upper portion of my shirt had all these wet spots.  I hadn't taken into account that the snow was sticking to my beard and melting as I ran.  Eventually I realized what was happening.  The second half of the run was with the winds behind me so I could keep my head up as I ran.  It didn't stop the snow from sticking to my face and forming some solid ice chucks.  All in all a solid run.  No issues with cars or footing or wet feet.  I actually considered going out again later but decided against it.  That was because I was out shoveling at 5:30 the next morning.     









I was all bundled up ready for the coldness I was going to face being outside so early.  The first thing I thought when I got out there was it really wasn't very cold.  I stayed layered up anyway and got through the job after quite some time.  For the record books, Allentown hit -3 Friday and -4 Saturday.  Not too bad. 

Like December we didn't get much of a break before the next piece of winter garbage came moving in today.  The Freezing Rain advisories were posted last night as ice was anticipated early this morning.  Normally not a big deal on a weekend morning since I don't have to be anywhere.  Except this morning I had my monthly run at the park.  The fun we could have with this mess.  I got up this morning expecting something already and looked out to see nothing.  Okay.  Maybe it's close by.  It wasn't.  It looked to be at least a few hours away.  I guess the sloppy run might not happen after all. 

I decided to skip the short drive and run down to the park.  Again, not too bad out and certainly not feeling like the 12 degrees it was.  I had also ran yesterday and since I was also running to and from the run I felt the 5k would fit me fine.  As I stood at the start I began to see drops falling every so often.  It had to be close by.  With the beginning section still a bit snow covered the race got off to a very slow start.  By the time I ran out of the park I had overruled my earlier constant thinking of 5k and was officially going for the 10.  It wasn't until I was about a little less than a mile away from finishing the first 5k when the rain began to become steady and light.  Here we go.  When I got back to the flatter portion of road into the park the pavement was noticeably slippery to the point the run became more of a scuttle.  On to the second leg.

The rain continued.  The bridge crossing 222 was particularly fun the second time around.  There is no joke that bridges freeze before roads do.  Running on the main roads was generally fine since they had been well treated from before.  It was going back into the park the second time that it became fun.  The whole road had become a thin sheet of ice.  You could run but you had to be careful.  I took it easily and as I ripped off my tag I realized my number was a frozen piece of paper.

At this point it was raining what I would consider pretty hard.  Now I had to get back out of the park.  I walked the entire road back out not bothering risking anything.  Other runners were still running coming back and luckily I didn't see anybody go down.  I continued walking until I crossed the bridge on which I even slipped walking.  After that I ran the rest of the way in the rain.  At this point I had been outside for probably a bit over and hour and a half.  Not a ton of time for everything to get to a point I would think is really cold.  Well I was ice.  Not me personally.  I didn't feel cold.  In fact I had my gloves off a majority of the race and threw my winter hat off after passing the first 5k loop.

The glow on my shorts is ice.  You can see how the line ends.  Why, I don't know.  You can also slightly make out the ice layered on the number after the last seven.

Here is my hat.  Solid ice on the brim.  The reason the top is fine is two reasons.  One is that I had a winter ski hat over the top of it for the first 5k to keep my ears warm.  When I started sweating a lot I took it off.  The natural heat escaping my body kept any ice from forming after that.

By the way my shoes and laces were also ice as was the display of my watch.  I used my fingernail as an ice scraper every time I wanted to look at my time.  It was lots of fun.

So if you ask me if I'm enjoying winter, trust me I am. 

Read more...

Welcome 2014

Let's dive straight into the first storm of 2014.

This one has been fun.  It's been on the radar for awhile now.  There has been little agreement towards what will happen in our area.  Today showed further how different things can be interpreted.  As Accuweather lowered totals for our region, the National Weather Service increased the totals.  This was done at the same time when the NWS totals were already higher than Accuweather to begin with.  So basically one group went down even further while another went up even higher.

Don't we all love these storms that are so complex that nobody has a solid idea of what is going to happen?  I present to you that very case with the first blizzard of the season.  I don't have the luxury of seeing all the maps the professionals have access to.  I also don't have the background and years of study they possess.  It leaves me at a terrible disadvantage when it comes to reading all of the ingredients as to how these intensifying storms take shape.  All I basically have are the model runs and a bit of knowledge.

Nothing since this storm came in to the picture suggested we were going to get hit by a monster storm.  There might have been one run that suggested a substantial snowfall over a foot.  Since then the runs have been more consistent.  The heaviest precip stays to our north or northeast.  The precipitation amounts should range from half an inch to three quarters of an inch.  Knowledge would suggest this could produce anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow.

So here we go.  We have two valley areas here that also happen to be the boundary line for advisories which makes it easier.

For the Delaware Valley folks:  Logic would say people in Bucks (northern) and Montgomery (northern) would see better totals than areas south and west.  The same should apply to Berks (east) and especially the closer you get to Allentown.  And yes Berks and the Reading metro area are in the Delaware Valley.  Now you could argue that places like Kutztown and Topton fit better into the Lehigh Valley area.  Just like Hamburg has more of a Schuylkill County vibe and Womelsdorf a central PA feel.  I'm just going by standard definition and the simpler reason that Berks fits nowhere into the picture.

This above area, possibly to my demise, I see in a general 4 to 6 inch range.

Now for the Lehigh gang.  This region is much simpler by definition purposes.  Allentown and Lehigh County.  Bethlehem and Northampton County (and technically Carbon and Warren county).  I do agree that this is the area more likely to see higher amounts.  After all these guys have a winter storm warning compared to the Delaware Valley region all having a watch.  There is a lot more up in the air with this region.  I could see some areas around the ten inch mark.  But I have to be a little conservative and go somewhere between 5-8.

Even though we don't really know what will end up happening with this storm we do have full confidence that temperatures are going to be cold on Friday.  Somebody is going to hit negative numbers.  The perfect way to enjoy all of that shoveling depending on where you live after the storm is done and how much is left to shovel when the winds come roaring through.

Latest model run coming in tonight around 9:45.  Let's see if there are any changes.  They will be posted at the bottom either way.

I am going to post these totals by the great John Bolaris from tonight.  I only do this for one reason.

Philly: 4-6 inches with a low level chance (30-40 percent) exceeding 6 inches.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.9

Philly: 4-6 inches with a low level chance (30-40 percent) exceeding 6 inches. 
  
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.

Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.

Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches

Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.

Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.

Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.

Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.

Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.

Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.

Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.

Bolaris covered a lot of areas in his predictions.  Like I've been trying to figure out for years, what section does Berks County fit in?

Philly: 4-6 inches with a low level chance (30-40 percent) exceeding 6 inches.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.99

9:55 UPDATE

I wouldn't put a ton of stock in one run.  But I did say I would post an update.  There was less total moisture on this one than in previous runs.

Philly: 4-6 inches with a low level chance (30-40 percent) exceeding 6 inches.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.99

Read more...