Welcome 2014
>> Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Let's dive straight into the first storm of 2014.
This one has been fun. It's been on the radar for awhile now. There has been little agreement towards what will happen in our area. Today showed further how different things can be interpreted. As Accuweather lowered totals for our region, the National Weather Service increased the totals. This was done at the same time when the NWS totals were already higher than Accuweather to begin with. So basically one group went down even further while another went up even higher.
Don't we all love these storms that are so complex that nobody has a solid idea of what is going to happen? I present to you that very case with the first blizzard of the season. I don't have the luxury of seeing all the maps the professionals have access to. I also don't have the background and years of study they possess. It leaves me at a terrible disadvantage when it comes to reading all of the ingredients as to how these intensifying storms take shape. All I basically have are the model runs and a bit of knowledge.
Nothing since this storm came in to the picture suggested we were going to get hit by a monster storm. There might have been one run that suggested a substantial snowfall over a foot. Since then the runs have been more consistent. The heaviest precip stays to our north or northeast. The precipitation amounts should range from half an inch to three quarters of an inch. Knowledge would suggest this could produce anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow.
So here we go. We have two valley areas here that also happen to be the boundary line for advisories which makes it easier.
For the Delaware Valley folks: Logic would say people in Bucks (northern) and Montgomery (northern) would see better totals than areas south and west. The same should apply to Berks (east) and especially the closer you get to Allentown. And yes Berks and the Reading metro area are in the Delaware Valley. Now you could argue that places like Kutztown and Topton fit better into the Lehigh Valley area. Just like Hamburg has more of a Schuylkill County vibe and Womelsdorf a central PA feel. I'm just going by standard definition and the simpler reason that Berks fits nowhere into the picture.
This above area, possibly to my demise, I see in a general 4 to 6 inch range.
Now for the Lehigh gang. This region is much simpler by definition purposes. Allentown and Lehigh County. Bethlehem and Northampton County (and technically Carbon and Warren county). I do agree that this is the area more likely to see higher amounts. After all these guys have a winter storm warning compared to the Delaware Valley region all having a watch. There is a lot more up in the air with this region. I could see some areas around the ten inch mark. But I have to be a little conservative and go somewhere between 5-8.
Even though we don't really know what will end up happening with this storm we do have full confidence that temperatures are going to be cold on Friday. Somebody is going to hit negative numbers. The perfect way to enjoy all of that shoveling depending on where you live after the storm is done and how much is left to shovel when the winds come roaring through.
Latest model run coming in tonight around 9:45. Let's see if there are any changes. They will be posted at the bottom either way.
I am going to post these totals by the great John Bolaris from tonight. I only do this for one reason.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.9
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.99
I wouldn't put a ton of stock in one run. But I did say I would post an update. There was less total moisture on this one than in previous runs.
Southern Bucks County: 6-9 inches, with a 30 percent chance of exceeding 9 inches.
Montgomery, Chester, and northern Bucks County: 4-8 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 5-9 inches
Poconos: 5-10 inches, with 30 percent chance of exceeding 10 inches.
Southern New Jersey: 4-6 inches.
Jersey Shore: 2-4 inches.
Central and northern Delaware: 4-6 inches.
Southern Delaware: 2-4 inches.
Moderate coastal flooding along central and northern New Jersey shores.
Southern New Jersey: Minor flooding ... ALL by Friday morning.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_The_calm_before_the_storm.html#z27I9CcFxEoRoFQf.99
1 comments:
RD- I like your comments and analysis. Will keep track of how much snow we receive and report back to you. Will be interested in how your predictions match up with reality once this thing passes.
Keep up the good work.
DJG
Post a Comment