Steady Climb

If you don't read or have a television yet somehow use the internet for weather updates you might not be aware that another "snowstorm" is coming.  However once again it's not going to be the big one for us locally.

A couple days ago you wouldn't have heard much if anything about snow today outside of a chance of flurries.  How things change quickly.  Now winter storm warnings are spread throughout the east coast with even blizzard conditions and talks of a foot of snow.  That's a lot of flurries.

The most basic principle with this event is that with a fresh batch of cold air in place all you need to do is look to see where the heaviest precipitation is going to fall to figure out who is in line for a 10+ inch event.  All signs point towards places closer to the coast from New Jersey, Long Island and along the immediate coast up to Provincetown.  The call in our area is certainly tougher.

The trend had continually taken the moisture further west when two days ago all of the precipitation was out over the Atlantic.  That's a good sign for us to get at least a decent snow formidable to what we have continually seen this winter.  It also puts us close to the sharp cutoff point between one area seeing very light snow and another 20 miles away in heavy bands.

The place to watch for me is central to southern New Jersey.  They seem to be in a perfect spot with this storm to have locations see over a foot.  In fact unless I see a change when the next model run comes in I'd put a circle around areas from Atlantic City to Asbury Park as my winners (especially for areas a bit more local).  To be honest Philadelphia has continually picked up sizable snows from systems like this and basically not much outside of that.  With that in mind an 8-10 inch storm for them just makes sense.  Remember weather is always about patterns.  Some patters lasts for years and others months.  This season that heavy band of snow keeps sitting on the city.

What about us?  Good question.  In fact I'm not even going to answer it until later tonight.  I'm a bit perplexed myself with this call.  I originally would have kept in the 4-5 inch range which is perfectly fine especially when you get these really fluffy snows.  However there are too many variables right now.  Go figure right.  For me this includes being in an area that is trailing the storm meaning we almost have to watch the storm grow backwards as it intensifies off the coast.  Cold, dry air meeting moisture can give a classic case of virga which if we aren't in the heavier bands means it could take longer than anticipated for snow to begin.  And in getting that cold air plunging in from behind the storm it can lead to quick dry slots that won't fill back in.  But our temperatures could be the coldest for any place seeing moderate snow (think in the range of 12-16 degrees) which could drastically increase snow ratios.

What we do know however is that snow is coming.  Whether we get two inches or eight our seasonal totals keep climbing.  I'll always take that.  Plus it gets me closer to winning the non-existent competition of who is closest to the year end snowfall prediction total.  We also know that whatever falls isn't going anywhere unless the wind blows it.  Temperatures are not going to be particularly enjoyable which would suggest I should once again start wearing a coat.

Looks like two more chance of snow between the 26th and 28th.  And yes for the crazies out there the long range does show a coastal storm on February 2nd.

Last model run is coming out.  Update to follow soon.

9:55 PM

Run came in with much heavier precipitation especially from Baltimore to Philadelphia then into central NJ and Long Island.  Have a feeling we see lots of double digit snowfall totals all across the southeast PA and much of NJ region.  Dare I say some areas could go 14-18 inches.  I say it.  Fine line for us still.  However this one did come in heavier and if this trend continues over the course of me sleeping you would have to increase the totals.  I'd like to really narrow it down, but I will go with 5-8 for Allentown and 4-7 Reading.  Philadelphia will be digging out.  That's where I leave that one.

Gets the plows, shovels and blowers ready.  Somebody is going to have a lot of snow piled up by tomorrow night.  Keep a watchful eye since most people will already be at work when the snow begins.  Duration takes this through the afternoon drive home and could be quite heavy with reduced visibility.