Yearly Comparison

After sitting down and looking at the models I wasn't going to post.  Here we go with the back and forth.  What makes it harder for me is that I only get one chance to look at these during the day and that is now.  I don't get the luxury of watching this play out.  For all I know these model runs could be throwaways.  Both the Euro and GFS backed away from the coastal storm.  They do still show snow.  As much as I'd like to say you can count on snow this weekend you never know.  We've all been fooled before.  This is what makes it fun.

I ended up doing this post for a different reason.  As I sadly watched the Euro show almost nothing for the weekend the cycle continued to show a new coastal storm for the 23rd and 24th.  It's of no significance now except that it shows a continued chance of stormy weather.  The next ten days will be interesting to watch.  Once a track is set all you need are a few trains.  The track begins to take shape at the end of the work week which should also provide a lot more answers to what we will see over the weekend and into next week.


2013-14 vs 2014-2015


You know a winter is bad when even I'm ready to move on.  That's what happened last year.  Cold temperatures and consistent snows were all to frequent.  It made winter seem to last forever.  I heard something interesting the other day from a respectable source.  It was noted that the belief was this is the last of a series of consecutive nasty winters particularly in our area.  As a huge believer in patterns it is only a matter of time before we have a few years of above average temperatures in winter with little snowfall.  All that remains to be seen.  So let's see just how close this winter and last winter will end up.

November 2013 - Average temperature (-4) below normal, no snowfall
November 2014 - Average temperature (-4) below normal, 5.7 inches

Think about that one for a second.  As bad as it was last year we didn't see any accumulating snow in November.  It was just colder than normal.  This year it was colder than normal and we had snowfall.  Allentown averages less than an inch of snow in November.

December 2013 - Average temperature (normal), 13.7 inches of snow

So far this December has been warmer in terms of temperature and there is one huge reason why.  If you haven't noticed December began by resembling the ugly sister of November.  8 of the first 11 days had measurable rain.  The sun has seemed to disappear.  Because of this the nighttime temperatures have not been able to drop often.  With at least two chances of snow the 13.7 inches would not be a stretch.  My guess is the month will end up pretty close to last December.

Will the pattern continue?  Many would hope not.  Last year ended with 68.1 inches of snow.  It was the third snowiest winter in recorded history.  Can we get into the top ten again? 

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Winter Storm Chester

Details

• Date:  December 9, 10, 11
• Impact Areas:  Northeast
• Peak Winds: 40-60 mph along coast, Fairhaven, MA 62 MPH
• Snowfall:  Jamesville, NY 26.2 - Orwell, VT 19.5 - Savoy, MA 16.9
• Notables:  NYC 2.63 inches of rain - Boston 3.20 inches of rain 

And the models have trouble figuring out exactly what is going to happen?  Not hard to figure out why.

I did most of my summary of this storm in my last post so this one will be short.  Since I decided to name nor'easters as a poke at TWC for naming winter storms I'm at least getting some amusement.  So far I'm on letter C and those guys are on letter D.  I have criteria for earning a name.  They do not.  So either it is almost not snowing anywhere else in the country or they don't know what the hell they are doing.

Back to the storm.  It ended quickly after my post with the moisture shutting off.  Have to admit the models did a good job with catching that wrap around snow.  In fact aside from the extremely high amounts the GFS had one night, it also did a particularly good job in showing that the Berks area had a higher chance of receiving accumulating snow.  You can see it in the GFS images and in the snow prediction map.

The final results for the three day storm came in with over 100 places reporting.  Nobody came close to Berks.  Hamburg reported 5.8 inches.  Fleetwood was at 4.2.  I was not correct in my official Allentown guess of 0.7 inches.  Probably going to be difficult to get one of these right unless I predict they get nothing.  They ended the storm at 0.6.

LOOKING AHEAD ----

Things quiet down this week with no chances for any surprise snowfalls and a return to seasonal temperatures.  Actually they have been seasonal in terms of average daily temps, but that is for another post.

Keeping an eye on the time frame just before Christmas.  A very close eye.  Clearly too far from now for any certainty but the Canadian and Euro both show something.  There will be colder air in place and it looks like there is a potential for a coastal storm.  Date range is between the 21st and 23rd.  Actually the GFS just updated so how about a little preview.

Even kept the date on there as you can see at the top right.  At least there is something to follow during the week.

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Let's Hear It For The Band

It's always funny to see how a matter of a few miles can make quite a difference.  I woke up this morning to see a very light coating of snow on the ground.  It was just enough to make me smile and think, sweet!  Little did I know that it was actually still lightly snowing.  By the time I left for work it was snowing fairly heavily.  It didn't stop for the rest of the day.

There was never a doubt this was a storm with a lot of energy.  If I could take a moving picture of the water vapor it would have resembled a huge inland hurricane.  It had the exact same counter clockwise rotation which has caused this very consistent snow today (in some areas). 

I went and found the image anyway and even though you can't see the movement of the storm I drew arrows.  This is current at 8:45 and the storm is into the third day while still producing snow.

Oddly enough, the Lehigh Valley had no winter weather advisory today.  Tuesday morning we did have one.  I even had the picture posted on Monday night.  I wasn't convinced that it was necessary though there is no way for me to know since any frozen precip that fell would have happened in the middle of the night.  The National Weather Service called for potential accumulating snowfall today.  No advisory.  It was probably needed.  These are the joys of weather.

There is no way of knowing exactly what is going to happen at an exact time in a precise location.  If you really want to get detailed accurate information get yourself a weather station.  At least then you will be able to know what happened after the fact.  At some point today a band of snow went swinging through in a similar fashion as the arrows above show the clouds moving.  The swing slowed down at a point centering itself around the Lehigh/Berks line.  When it looked like it would peter out another small band of snow set up in the afternoon.  It left enough for plows to come out and snow blowers to crank.  Bizarre.

I can tell you how centralized this was.  When I left work there was probably around two inches of snow on the car.  The grass and everything was covered easily.  Plows had come through the parking lot.  When I arrived home there was virtually nothing.  That's right.  Practically bupkis.  It's basically a 12 mile drive.  What's also amusing is as much as I follow news during work there was almost nothing coming in about the snow.  Nothing from the Allentown news or Philadelphia.  No joke the only thing I saw mentioned was from the Reading Eagle that said Fleetwood-Blandon road was very icy and use caution.  It was like it only was snowing in a 5 mile circle.  Here's some more for you.  Of all the snow reports for today that came in, the lowest total in Berks was equal to the highest total anywhere else in the Mt Holly region.

My original intent tonight was to give a wrap up of this snow.  Instead the wrap around snow continues.  In fact the main batch of snow is now centered squarely in Pennsylvania.  As I checked the radar I noticed the snow filtering back in from the northeast.  This time it is further south.  While the snow is trying to push back close to the areas that already saw a decent amount, it has been snowing here for an hour and everything is white.  If the band sticks together another inch is possible  Head to Emmaus and they will once again see nothing tonight.

Since I did actually make one prediction, which looking back was probably a good thing since the snow is all over the place, I will eventually get around to figuring out what the official total for Allentown was after this wraps up some time early tomorrow morning.  Can't wait for winter to actually begin. 

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Storm Number Three

Even though our particular area won't see a major snowstorm there is a lot in play with this storm.  Take a look at the watches and warnings.

It's actually very interesting to see this map because of all that is going on.  Another classic case of a nor'easter.  You can start in the southern portion of the map where Baltimore and Washington D.C. have no watches whatsoever.  Meanwhile all of Delaware is either in a Coastal Flood Warning or Watch.  The same can be said for most of New Jersey.  However many places have multiple warnings and since you can only use one color per county, there is more to the story.  Take Atlantic City.  They have a Coastal Flood Warning, Flood Watch and Wind Advisory.  Other counties like Hunterdon, Bucks and Montgomery have both a flood advisory and winter weather advisory.  Even the open ocean is covered with gale warnings, craft advisories and high surf warnings.  Move inland and at a point where Lehigh, Carbon and Schuylkill counties meet there is a winter storm advisory, watch and warning within miles of each other.

Off we go.

In technical weather terms there is a boat load of moisture to work with.  See model image below for amounts according to the GFS.

You can see a large area of 1-4 inches of precipitation.  Now the GFS has been consistent in doing something interesting.  Take notice of that darker shade of orange centered by Berks County.  I'll get back to that later.

Here we get the snowfall prediction from NCEP. 

Logically this makes sense.  The snow is confined to the interior and in places that are naturally hillier.  Have to remember a decent amount of warm air is being kicked back in from the ocean which plays against having snow close to the coast. 


The GFS becomes an entire different story.  I'll post a few images.  Remember that bright orange spot from above.

This is after the brief transition from an icy start.  Temperatures have risen and we are in the heaviest part of the rain.

Now this model and in older runs of some others, there has been this massive amount of moisture thrown back

As the warm winds change direction from coastal to winds out of the north, temperatures quickly drop back down.  In my experience though this usually happens after the moisture has is already passed.  This storm set up is allowing for another low to form and contribute to this extra moisture that if the models are correct tends to place the heaviest of this banding back over the Lehigh Valley as you can see above.

This is the very next image from the GFS.  Remember, we are talking a six hour difference.  Notice the dark blue is still over our region.  In this image you can also see the two lows that have formed.  If I'd post the next image it would still show us in a heavy band.

Now is all of this a possibility?  It's hard to predict what's going to happen when one low bombs off the coast let alone two.  I'll give you possible but extremely far fetched at least to what this shows.  If I recall I believe there was a storm last year that provided a decent amount of wrap around snow in a narrow band.  Otherwise it doesn't happen often.   And when I say doesn't happen often I mean not in the sense that the GFS shows.  My theory is that 9 out of 10 times it doesn't happen.   

This is where it gets either funny or awful.  I can't be the judge yet.  Last storm I used the GFS model for NYC to show our own potential snowfall.  After all the crap the GFS produced leading up to the storm the totals the night before ended up being more accurate than I was guessing.  I kid you not, this is what it shows for the system moving through tomorrow and tomorrow night.

There you have it.  Apparently we are looking at somewhere between 10 and 16 inches tomorrow.  Odd how extremely centralized it is too.  Really not even sure what to say.  If we got a quarter of this I will never make fun of the GFS again.

Moving on to reality.

The NAM just updated and it too kicks back snow which again I'm not doubting.  The amounts though with the NAM are far more realistic.

Looking at this one it resembles the first snow map I showed.  By the way the Euro is also very similar with a slightly larger area of pink shades but otherwise very close.  I tend to think this will be very close to the final totals.  All of our snow comes from whatever is able to wrap back around.


The call.

The temperature was far colder today than I thought it was going to be though I also didn't pay much attention.  That should help any early moisture fall in a frozen form.  I still think rain wins out quickly with the way the storm is tracking so I'm not very concerned about morning issues aside from the normally tricky spots.  Rain and wind is the primary player tomorrow.  The snow is the most challenging aspect of the forecast.  There are a lot of variables.  If the temperature drops fast enough and there is enough heavy precipitation it won't take long for snow to stick.  I have trouble seeing more than a coating for most areas so giving an exact figure is tough.  Since I don't see much anyway my only guess will be for a place I know will report.

Allentown - 0.7

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Model Fight

The weekend before the Thanksgiving Eve snowfall there was no inclination that anything would happen if you went with the GFS model.  The European started picking up on it days before the GFS finally started to come around.  This has been a common trend for at least the past few years.  Because of this most people trust the European model when it comes to coastal storms.  Now the two are ready to battle again this week.

Once again the storm was really nowhere on the radar of the GFS a few days ago.  Not the case anymore.  While I wait for the models to update let me put my two cents in regarding this event.  You can say it a thousand times and it never will change.  It's incredibly hard to predict winter storms in the northeast.  One day there is nothing and the next day a major storm.  In this scenario ever since the European started picking up something and now with the GFS shifting as well, one thing has remained consistent.  The bulk of this storm has stayed to our north and east.  That's why I'm not quick to jump into a storm type mode.  Nothing suggests we are in for anything major as of right now. 

Models:

Canadian-  Heaviest snow stays in the interior of northern New England.  Lehigh Valley gets nothing

GFS-  Agrees with Canadian with regards to New England snow.  Does suggest a small accumulation for the Lehigh Valley.  (Map included with total inches)

Euro-  Throws a lot of moisture into eastern PA with a bit of wrap around as well.  Due to temperature keeps snow totals north of Lehigh Valley but puts NE PA to Maine in 10 plus inches.


Now the one thing this won't pick up is the area of potential mixing.  I will have to do more research to see what maps might be out there for ice accumulation.  Obviously a lot of time between then and now.  Then being Tuesday into Wednesday.  No need to run out for bread and milk which I'm not really sure why those are the first two items people need in times of snow.  Beer, shovel and meats to throw on a grill seem higher priority.

Anywho, I will continue to investigate and whatever else that catches my eye will get posted.  Otherwise I'm not too concerned about what is sure to be storm C.

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Winter Storm Bastian

Details

• Date:  November 26th
• Impact Areas:  Northeast
• Peak Winds:  N/A
• Snowfall:  Laconia, NH - 16.5 inches - Orwell, VT - 16 inches - Binghamton, NY - 10 inches
• Notables:  More than 400,000 lost power due to heaviness of snow

A rare Thanksgiving time snowstorm pushed through the area on Wednesday.  Due to the holiday I haven't even been able to take a look at this one until now, and quite frankly even at this point I don't have a ton of time to dive into the storm.  I'll make it as quick as I can.

In the way I saw it play out I was right in some areas and wrong in others.  I did expect higher totals than what was recorded for bigger cities.  I don't mind so much that I was off since I give specific amounts.  If I go with the general call of 3-6 or 5-8 or 6-10 I end up being right.  But when Allentown officially reports 4.9 when I guessed 7.7 it looks like I'm way off.  Realistically it is less than a three inch difference when all those I listed have at least a four inch swing.

In terms of what went right I think (and saw) how huge a difference elevation played in this storm.  And with that I was much more accurate in my call of double digits for the random hills.  I noticed throughout the area that a difference of a few hundred feet produced a very noticeable difference in snow totals.

I still don't have a go to city outside of Allentown.  Only spotters reported in Lehigh County which unless they were on a hill I'd say the report of 7.8 inches in Salisbury township is a bit high.  But again there is a big increase in elevation that could have easily played a part.  Easton did not report a total which makes me think they won't be consistent.  Bethlehem is out since the official snowfall total for the city of Allentown is taken at the airport which is basically in Bethlehem.  I did notice Nazareth reported through a weather specific program.  That might become the one to follow.  They recorded 5.5 inches.  Berks was all over the place which can be expected for the size and elevation differences.  I don't mind that Reading reported 2.7 inches but the fact that it finalized at 5:00 Wednesday evening when it was still snowing is comical.  I do tend to think that the rapid melting of the snow played a factor in measuring.  The reporting stations recorded totals above 7 inches in places near Fleetwood and Mohnton even though you wouldn't have measured that much.

I as always enjoyed the snow as much as a person could who spends most of a nine hour day in a windowless office space.  Even though my ankle is still sore and swollen I made sure that exactly one month after almost fracturing my ankle I made it a point to enjoy a snowy night.

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