Model Fight

The weekend before the Thanksgiving Eve snowfall there was no inclination that anything would happen if you went with the GFS model.  The European started picking up on it days before the GFS finally started to come around.  This has been a common trend for at least the past few years.  Because of this most people trust the European model when it comes to coastal storms.  Now the two are ready to battle again this week.

Once again the storm was really nowhere on the radar of the GFS a few days ago.  Not the case anymore.  While I wait for the models to update let me put my two cents in regarding this event.  You can say it a thousand times and it never will change.  It's incredibly hard to predict winter storms in the northeast.  One day there is nothing and the next day a major storm.  In this scenario ever since the European started picking up something and now with the GFS shifting as well, one thing has remained consistent.  The bulk of this storm has stayed to our north and east.  That's why I'm not quick to jump into a storm type mode.  Nothing suggests we are in for anything major as of right now. 

Models:

Canadian-  Heaviest snow stays in the interior of northern New England.  Lehigh Valley gets nothing

GFS-  Agrees with Canadian with regards to New England snow.  Does suggest a small accumulation for the Lehigh Valley.  (Map included with total inches)

Euro-  Throws a lot of moisture into eastern PA with a bit of wrap around as well.  Due to temperature keeps snow totals north of Lehigh Valley but puts NE PA to Maine in 10 plus inches.


Now the one thing this won't pick up is the area of potential mixing.  I will have to do more research to see what maps might be out there for ice accumulation.  Obviously a lot of time between then and now.  Then being Tuesday into Wednesday.  No need to run out for bread and milk which I'm not really sure why those are the first two items people need in times of snow.  Beer, shovel and meats to throw on a grill seem higher priority.

Anywho, I will continue to investigate and whatever else that catches my eye will get posted.  Otherwise I'm not too concerned about what is sure to be storm C.