Weekend Randomness

While the temperatures won't show it, and they might not for a bit, it's always a sign that spring is coming when the clocks change.  If it was up to me we wouldn't go through this every fall and spring, but I have no say in the matter.  As much as I really love snow I have to give a few cheers for more sunlight in the evening.

Now for some weather talk and other random things from the weekend.

• Turns out that snow map I was talking about last time for the storm right before we hit 80 degrees was saved to my computer.  At the time I was smart enough to do it knowing full well I'd have trouble finding it again.  Might as well post it now.

• Very cool map somebody decided to make to show the current snowfall totals across the Northeast.  No doubt these numbers will continue to increase with another coastal storm getting ready to form.  Easy to figure out where the lake effect areas are.  That Erie total is nuts.  If you are keeping track at home the normal snowfall for a year in Allentown is between 32 and 33 inches.  Need to squeeze out a few more to get above and closer to my prediction. 

• The third coastal storm was thrown out the window by a number of weather prognosticators I follow on various forms of media.  After the last storm I'm not listening to anybody when it comes to these storms.  I'm not sure why I do to begin with.  Well that storm is now taking shape.  New England could be in for a good one.  We will be close to the edge again while a place like D.C. as shown above will somehow avoid the snowfall.  Here are predicted totals (Late Monday night - Early Tuesday morning).  Take it for what it's worth.

WEEKEND SPORTS

• In a battle of top four clubs, Manchester United took home a 2-1 win against Liverpool in action early Saturday morning.  That's great and all but what I took from the game was that Manchester United defender Eric Bailly scored an own goal that was so good it confused the graphics guys from NBCSN.

• The goalie for Charlotte in the AHL scored last night.  Doesn't happen often especially considering he shot it in himself.

GOALIE GOAL! Full video of @alexned_ lighting the lamp in tonight’s win! pic.twitter.com/AI5SqiIgmm

— Charlotte Checkers (@CheckersHockey) March 11, 2018

• The MLS is back.  Missed penalty shots happen.  That rebound attempt...ugh.

WHAT A SAVE!

Matt Turner denies Jack Price from the spot. #NEvCOL https://t.co/5BQ2ej7gxL

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) March 10, 2018

One of the nice things about living in a more metropolitan area when it comes to running is that there are always new routes to try.  Yesterday before being sidelined by a mild migraine I decided to head for the hills.  Fountain Hill to be exact.  Went from one hill side near the hospital to the other hill side along the ridge of Lehigh mountain then through the Lehigh campus.

After a number of hours with my eyes closed followed by a night of sleep I was also able to get in my first 30 mile ride of 2018.  The weather has been tough especially on a Sunday morning.  That's one thing I won't miss when the warmer weather comes along.

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The Last 3 Storms

By now we are all aware that not all storms pan out in terms of predicted snowfall totals.  Some places get less than forecasted and other get much more.  It's the same with every single coastal storm.  Today was one of those times that our area missed the mark.  Mind you, it still snowed.  Other places ended up with next to nothing that thought they were getting anywhere from 4 to 8 inches.

I've been trying to piece together a summary of the last month or so to describe what we have been dealing with in terms of the roller coaster of weather.  I can't seem to figure it out.  The only thing I can say is to expect the unexpected.  Maybe that's the way winter will be from now on.  Or maybe that is how it has always been and we fail to remember since weather is constantly changing.  Instead of writing a summary of what we have been dealing with, I'm going to comment on a few topics I've noticed.

Let's start with February.

It was wet.
Of the 28 days, we recorded precipitation on 16 of them.  That's basically what we would see in summer months.   Receiving 5.50 inches of rain in a month that averages 2.70 has to be a bit on the odd side.  Maybe not.  In 2014 we got 4.45 and 2016 4.88.  In 2013 and 2015 less than two.  Let's stick with the odd/even pattern and say 2019 will be under two.

We set an all-time high record. 
On February 21st the high in Allentown hit 81.  That officially is the warmest temperature recorded in the history of Allentown.  Pretty crazy right.  Or is it? Thanks to record keeping I made this interesting find for the following dates.

February 23 had a high of 72.
February 24 had a high of 77.
February 25 had a high of 74.

Now here is the kicker.  All those temperatures were recorded in the same year.  And what year would that have been?  Last year.  Does anybody remember that because I don't.  So maybe hitting 81 this year (no other days broke 70) is not that crazy. 

This however might be.

It snowed 6.5 inches on February 17

Four days later it was 81.  What is this, Denver?  Let's get back to the snow event.  It would be fair to say this one came out of nowhere.  When storms usually are talked about practically 10 days in advance, this one performed a magical act to suddenly appear.  Not only that but the call was for a few inches at most.  It is here where I would have posted the snowfall results except I can't find where the weather service hid them, and I do not feel like spending time looking for it.

Into March we go.  A notoriously sneaky month for big storms.

A stationary snow band delivers results on March 2
This one was especially bizarre from my standpoint.  For context they never called for much snow in our region.  Most of the big amounts would be to the north.  Everybody would see a few inches.  So I kept tabs on the storm throughout the day and started to notice that while not much was happening where I was, the story seemed a bit different where I lived.  Driving home confirmed it on a larger scale than I expected.  The map, which is still available, will show how banding with coastal storms works.

I've added the red box to highlight totals from the day.  Look at Reading to the west which reported nothing.  Trenton to the east is at 0.2.  In the middle you have anything from 6 to 9.5 inches.  Bethlehem ended up reporting 5.6 inches which did not make this map.  Allentown (airport) officially is the 3.7 you see in the box at the top.  There is your example of a north to south heavy band that does not move.

That brings us to today.  When I woke up the NWS forecast was for 14 inches of snow in Allentown.  That would have been very accurate if you took away the 1.  Totals are still coming in and nothing is official.  The airport is a bit further west (every mile helps) so I'm thinking their total is not going to be anything above 5 inches.  Other areas in the region might be in the 5-6 range.  Still a very far cry from the call.  As mentioned before, it happens.  I'm more perplexed as to why the totals were not updated as the day went on.  The forecast amount was actually higher this morning than it was last night.  Oh well.

Are we done with snow? 
Would you trust anybody if they said yes or no?  I don't.  Once we get through the first 9 days of April is when I'd say we are done.  Whatever we add as the official total for the storm today, we will end up almost exactly at average for a normal winter.  And there are still a few more weeks to go.  This basically tells me that through all the ups and downs, this was a typical winter season.  Of course I can't help but notice a few more things that get me thinking.

Depending on the official total today, which again I say will be less than 5 inches, if we do not get another storm this month, December will end up being the snowiest month this winter.  It doesn't sound like anything out of the norm until you see this stat.  I have the snow history dating back to the winter of 1980-81.  December has never, not once, been the snowiest month in a season over that period of time.

Now for one more.  Let's say we do get another storm and March surpasses December in snowfall.  Well that too will be strange because this would be the third time in the last four seasons that March ends up being the snowiest month.  Prior to that it had been 14 years since that happened and in that season we ended with 10 inches for the whole year.  I think it is safe to say March is officially a player in winter.
 

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The Unknown

When it comes to the approaching storm my new rule is no guessing.  These are the types of storms that nobody will know how much snow a place like Allentown or Reading is going to get until it is happening.  Some places are going to get hit hard like the New Jersey coast, Long Island and Boston.  What makes it worse is when you combine heavy snow and high winds there is a 100% chance that thousands of people will lose power right before the coldest temperatures likely of the entire season hit. 

I almost posted last night when I saw the western shift from the NAM model.  These short term models tend to be accurate.  Again though, it is very difficult to get this type of thing right.  It's like predicting the exact landfall of a hurricane a day before it hits.  Some organizations have hinted at a western shift even when the models said no.  Others have been more cautious.  I still don't know who is right.

The best I can do is post the predicted local totals from various groups.  I'm sure these will be constantly changing as the storm approaches.  Remember, a day or two ago most of the models suggested an inch or two or less for our area.

Short Range Model

Heck of a cut off from basically nothing west of Berks to 16 inches at the coast.  Model tends to be a little robust, but who knows.

NOAA

The GFS and European are not worth posting for us.  Both have our area in 1 inch or at most 2 inches.

Here is what I can tell you.  If you really enjoy snow consider this a win.  You could travel 50 miles west and see nothing.  If you do not like snow or do not enjoy a morning commute in the snow, this could be a problem.  If everything stays on track in will be white outside when you get up and snowing when driving to work.  That is never enjoyable.  Can't really say the evening commute will be a lot better with the potential blowing snow and icy roads.  Depending on how cut off the moisture is there could be parts of our area that see very little and therefore will not deal with problems.  Again though you have to go west for that.

We will see how this plays out tomorrow.  We are in one of these patterns.  Let's get through this one first before jumping ahead.  I do want to at least point out that Monday of next week should be watched closely.
 

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2017 Ends - 2018 Begins

When it comes to 2017 we were warmer and wetter than normal.  Here are some of the numbers.

Warmest Month = July  75.6 degrees

Wettest Month = August  8.45 inches

Coldest Month = December   31.6 degrees

Snowiest Month = March  18.3 inches

Total Precipitation = 49.77 inches

Average Temperature = 53.6 degrees

Aside from the average temperature and warmest month there are quite a few unusual numbers here.  December is a big surprise for coldest month as is March for snowiest.  These really should be going to January or February.  August is generally not that wet and isn't even in the top five wettest months.  The past three years had a total of six and a half inches in August combined.  July has averaged 6.1 inches over four years.  Hitting 50 inches of precipitation is not normal.  We average somewhere in the lower 40's.

Weather is constantly changing.  You have to expect weird things to happen.  For me the close of a year gives me a chance to look back at how many miles I got in.  This past year I felt a little lazy.  Perhaps that was because I backed off the running a bit.  Even still I put more miles in biking and running this year than ever before.  Luckily Strava puts together a video for your yearly review. 

Into 2018

Maybe it is the new year that leads me to be a little different on the first.  Or maybe it is a tradition I cannot break.  I looked back at my activities on January 1st since I started keeping track.  Here is what I found.

It started normal in 2014.  I went for a jog in my Muhlenberg neighborhood that lasted 3.99 miles.  This is a clear indication I never look at distance when I run.  Then things started to get a bit odd.

On January 1st, 2015 I went for a 15 mile run at Blue Marsh.  That ended up being the longest run I did in all of 2015.

In 2016 I went for a 4.84 mile run at 12:01 a.m.  For reference the temperature at that time was 38 degrees.  Not bad for a late night run in January.

In 2017 I went for a 30 mile bike ride in the morning and followed up with a 7.8 mile run in the afternoon.  A day of both running and biking is very rare for me.  And I've never put in anywhere close to 40 miles total.

That brings us to 2018.  Time to bring back the midnight run?  No.  The answer was simple and had nothing to do with the cold.  When I did it in 2016 it was a Friday night.  Easy to get the sleep schedule back on track with the rest of the weekend.  This year the next day is a work night and if running at midnight at best you get to sleep at two in the morning.  I had a different idea.

The coldest temperature I can recall running in was during a 5k in 2014 when the temperature was 14 degrees.  I still have a picture from the event because of how cold it was.  We are obviously in a cold stretch right now.  I figured I could run in something colder and there is no colder part of the day than the morning.

I went to bed at a normal time and prepared to get up for a morning run.  The first thing that strikes you is how dark it is early.  The sun doesn't rise until close to 7:30.  This is also usually the coldest part of the night since the sun has been down for the longest amount of time.  I waited a little longer than I expected, but I wasn't going to pass up the cold. 



As you can see above I started at 6:26 a.m. almost exactly an hour before the sun came up.  Oddly enough I didn't see anybody else out running.  Oh well.  I did my standard loop being mindful of potential icy spots and keeping in well lit areas.  One might wonder what the conditions are like at that time of the day.  Glad you asked.  The day before I found a site that shows local weather conditions based on standard backyard weather stations.  Just so happens there is somebody three blocks from me connected to the site through their personal station.  Here is what was recorded at the time I started.

At almost the exact second I left the temperature read 4.3 degrees.  Dew point is basically the equivalent to wind chill.  Easily beats my previous record of 14 degrees.  I personally find cold temperatures to be fairly similar once you get below 20 so I can't say it was any different than a normal cold winter run.  I'm sure when it comes to exposed skin there is a difference.  When I got back to my building I noticed another first when it comes to cold running that stuck with me through my elevator ride back to my floor.  This is what my winter hat looked like.

Not sure the science behind it but the entire hat should be the dark blue color you see in the middle towards the top.  It is almost like the heat escaping through my head was freezing back on to my hat.

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