Snow, Severe and Stormy

Never thought I would be happy to see a few inches of snow on a Saturday morning in late January but happy I was waking up to the beautiful sight of fresh snow.  Here are some of the amounts for the locations we are tracking this year.  None are official because every place I look differs.

Reading: 4 inches

Harrisburg: 5 inches

Wilkes-Barre: 4.5 inches

Allentown: 3.4 inches

Philadelphia: 2.5 inches

We will look at the longer range forecast in just a bit.

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Last year was the worst season I can recall in terms of tornadoes and fatalities.  It seemed like every day something else was happening.  The Alabama tornado that almost leveled the school, the Joplin tornado, Springfield's surprise storm that was crazy to watch and the list goes on and on.  It was bad.  How bad?  This bad.  There were unofficially 552 fatalities in the U.S. last year.  The prior ten years had 564 combined.  The truth of the matter is the United States is smack dab in the middle of a war zone of different air masses.  The only chance is to prepare and stay tuned to forecasts.  The 2012 season has already started for the same areas that were hit last year. Tornado reports from yesterday are marked in red.  Thankfully I have not heard of any fatalities. 

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What can we watch?

A low slowly forms in Texas Thursday that will bring some rain in our direction later in the week.  Temperatures will remain above freezing limiting any chance we see at frozen precip.  This low was the same low that the models had turning up the East coast and becoming a major storm.  Of course, models that far out have a tendency to change.  And it has.  Honestly I'm a bit surprised at how long the model hung on to this one.  It was showing up weeks ago and continued to do so until recently.  What does it mean for us?  Think it is best to watch this one.  Right now the model takes the storm off the Carolina coast.  Can't say I'm really surprised due to the pattern.  Have to keep an eye on it but I'm not very hopeful. 

I'm not going to get too far ahead of myself with the storms.  I can say that there seems to be a big shot of arctic air coming in sometime around Feb 4 to the 8th.  Don't see any storms during that time frame but I'm always up for some cold air.  For the meantime, I will follow the low that tracks east this week to see if we can't squeak something out.  Remember, the October snow never showed up on the model until the day before.  Just like about every other winter storm.

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First Accumulating Snow

Since October that is.  Took awhile but Saturday's storm will certainly bring enough white stuff to give us winter lovers a reason to be happy.  Figures the day I planned to go get my road bike would be the first crappy day in months.  Just means I will be out for a morning run in the snow instead.

I expect the first advisory for Friday night to come out later tonight or early in the morning hours.  With the weather we have been having a winter storm watch is probably likely for somewhere between 2-4 inches of snow and sleet.

First things first.  The light snow tonight.  I am still perplexed.  The afternoon model and the accumulated snowfall map continue to say that the snow breaks up along the mountains.  The short term model has been like that for awhile.  That is why I still think we see very little of anything and some people might wake up without ever having known it did a thing. 

I only have the earlier model to go off of until the next run at 9:30 comes out but the trend has still been colder for Saturday.  The chance for a change over to rain is still possible because the models really don't take into consideration the warm air that overrides the cold air.  Surface level temps could still hover around 34 or 35 producing a mixed bag.  I'm more inclined to say this will be an all frozen event.  I want to see the latest model tonight since I am stuck at work tomorrow.   Update will follow around 10 as well as checking in on the snow if it ever makes it to us.

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10PM Update **

Seeing the lack of snow once again confirms my theory on why I never listen to the mets on local TV.  Still waiting to see who gets closer to that snowfall prediction total for Philadelphia.

Model is in right on time and how about this for that cooling trend.  The latest models suggests the temperature never gets above freezing on Saturday.  It also shifts the heaviest precip south of us towards south Jersey which will be too warm for snow.  Regardless the National Weather Service is usually on the high end for these things so I will bump my totals up for the watch to 3-5 inches.  As of now I am of the opinion we see more towards three.  Either way I am pretty content.  Was looking a few days ago that we were in a mix to rain.  That cold trend took over yesterday and it is has continued again.

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They Are Trying

Seattle Drivers Maneuvering In the Snow




Another nice example from 2010.  I knew we would get some good stuff out of Seattle.  Probably best to call off on snow days.  Hilly town + Little snow driving experience = Spectator sport  

 

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Quick Update

Snow is in the forecast.  That really should be the end of this post.  However, I will continue with a little background.

First, tomorrow evening.  Yes there is a chance of some light snow or flurries.  Either way it won't amount to much.  Most of the precip is to our north.  In fact when I looked at the models last night they showed nothing for our area.  Even on the latest run most of the snow breaks up over the Apps.

Saturday is still intriguing.  As of right now the precipitation moves in early enough that the temperatures are clearly cold enough to support snow.  Then things get interesting.  The latest run suggests the temperature never gets above 38.  It also shows the heaviest precip falling when our temps are right around 35.  That leaves a few options.

Option one is the event starts out as snow.  Maybe a quick inch or two before a change to sleet to nicely ice over the snow.  Should warm air overlap the cold air, a longer period or mixing could occur.  The changeover to an extent to rain might not even take place.  I think this option is less likely (right now).

Option two starts the same.  Starts as snow.  1-2 inches.  Change to a mixed bag for a period.  Then a changeover to rain during the heaviest of the precip before it ends.  Then you have to worry about the roads freezing back up Saturday night.  This is my likely scenario. 

Of course, this could all change by tomorrow evening when I check out the runs again.
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10 P.M. Update ** 

Took a look at the latest model run that updated half an hour ago and wouldn't you know, more changes.  The light snow and flurries for tomorrow is once again gone.  No big deal because... the runs continue to trend colder for the Saturday storm.  Cold enough that with this run we would see primarily snow and sleet.  Very interesting.  Tomorrow's models should begin to narrow down what we will see.  Really surprised to see the cooler trends.  Again, would not buy into much right now. 

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Winter Weather Advisory

I'm going to be honest with this one.  The only reason this post even has this title is because I'm beginning to worry that this is the best we can do this winter.  I actually just returned from watching sleets pellets hit the deck.  Seriously.  Sleet pellets?  This is turning quite sad.  Even putting us in an advisory is almost an insult.  Unless you are much higher in elevation, I'm not expecting many issues.

Thought it would be a good time to check with our friends out in the west.  I put my reputation on the line by saying the next map for Seattle could be for totals of 8-12 inches.  You can go back and look at my last post if you don't believe it.  Of course this was assuming the storm to hit Washington and Oregon would drop slightly south, thus trapping much of the unseasonably cold air within the valleys.  Mind you Seattle has also not had a day of six or more inches of snow in 16 years.  Put it all together and what do you have?

Hmmm.  Should be a fun few days in The Emerald City.  If I were to really go on a limb I would suggest a total potentially even higher, but a lot of ingredients have to come together for that to happen.  Would not be shocked if it did.  Hopefully people will be prepared as I've read a lot of talk from residents saying they never get totals like this, many still dismissing the possible major storm.  Only thing I would probably say is I don't think Portland quite gets in on that much action.  They will be close however.  Thinking here is some warmer air will get mixed in especially at the low levels causing more mixing and perhaps maybe even a changeover to heavy rain.  Either way can't wait to see the pictures and videos.  They never disappoint.
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I'd love to boo hoo about our conditions compared to this but winter lovers out west will have a blast with this one.  Not to mention they are/were in the same boat as us.  The forecast for their winter was suppose to be very stormy with shots of snow.  Up until this past weekend, they had seen nothing along with many other areas that are still in a snow funk.  Does this mean there is a shift into the pattern that has been predicted for what seems like months?   Get ready for it folks...

Nope.  NAO remains positive right into February.  We will quickly be running out of time.  Just took a look at the last model run for probably the first time in a month due to my disgust.  I almost have to laugh.  See a nice shot of cold air toward the end of the week with no precip.  Not going to say much yet but Saturday is worth watching.  That's all I will say for now.  Then warm air really extends north all the way to New England.  Next storm takes a track through the Great Lakes = Rain.  Next one goes up the Apps = Rain.  Then the Nor'Easter develops and tries to take a path up the coast.  That's right.  A Nor'Easter my friends. Hold on.  That is assuming the models (who have trouble predicting storms a few days away) are accurate for the day of February 2nd. 

For now I will continue to watch for any signs of snow for Saturday.  The short range model that extends 84 hours should start to pick up something tomorrow. 

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Tracking Snow

Not in our area of course.  That dusting last night just didn't cut it for me. 

But in other places...

After the start we have had this winter, this is the kind of thing that makes me ill.  When Seattle and Portland join the party it is time for me to leave.  The only more upsetting place to be than here on this map is Lander who apparently have built some sort of bubble over their area.  Portland averages two measly inches a year and they get two to three times that in a day.  And Seattle, well, they might be in line for a little more fun when the next system slams the coast in a few days.  Could the next map out for the city say 8-12 inches?

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Valdez picked up another 18-20 inches since the last post I made.  The good thing for the town is there should be a sizable break in the action.  In fact they might go 7-10 days without seeing an inch of snow.  Should help out with the cleaning up.  




Love this video.  Standing on the roof of a school with the snow higher than the people.  They cut the snow and then use a giant push shovel to get it off.  And yes they did get another 15 inches that night.


If that doesn't get you going maybe you can check out other places around the world that are getting snow like in Alexandria, Egypt.  Average high in January, 65 degrees.  Not on this day.

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Go West Young Man

Even though we are struggling this year in the snow department, and by we I mean most of the entire country except for of all places the southwest, some areas continue to take their yearly pounding.  And nobody gets pounded harder than Valdez, Alaska.  With an average total of 326 inches, they are said to be the snowiest city in the United States.  And they are living up to that reputation this season.

Valdez is a town of a little more than 4,000 that sits east of Anchorage nestled between a port and mountains.  It's not some small outdated town either.  Fishing, oil and tourism fuel the economy and the median income for a family is almost $75,000.  Not to mention that no matter where you are in town, you have one hell of a view.

But I hope you like snow.  Since the beginning of this month, they have received over 67 inches of snow.  Insane for most of us but not atypical for these folks.  In fact for the month of December, Valdez managed a respectable 152 inches of snow.  That my friends, is a lot.  I guess the one to two feet of snow forecast over the next few days is really no big deal.  I wonder if they do anything besides shovel?  They have received over a foot of snow in one day 8 times this season.  In December, only three days saw no measurable snow.  What makes it more interesting is their temperatures are quite seasonable.  Daily highs are in the upper 20's or low 30's and nighttime temps rarely dip below the teens in this time of year.

Getting back closer to home, temperatures should become more typical by the weekend.  I continue to hear the same old song every week since the end of December.  The La Nina is weakening, the cold air is coming, the second half of winter could be nasty.  This would have been more believable had it not been said every day for the last few weeks.  I'm not saying it won't happen, but it's not coming at the rate they have said it would.  I am just ready for some colder weather.  Ran before Christmas and after Christmas in shorts and a t-shirt.  Ran in my first Shiver by the River and now my second in... you guessed it, shorts and a t-shirt. 

Enjoy these for a little while until we can bring winter back.

Neighborhood in Valdez (Not Winter) with a look at the views

Hard to shovel when you can't get outside

Even the dog is saying you must be kidding

See the stops signs with the street sign on top?

Street view of what houses across Valdez look like

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Starting Fresh

All it took was a new year to get the snow machine cranking around the lakes.  Lake Effect Snow warnings are up for Buffalo, Erie and Cleveland.  A watch is in place for Syracuse.  And if you live anywhere near the lakes in Michigan, expect to be shoveling for much of the first week of 2012.  Many of these places will get two to three times more snow than they have seen this pitiful season. 

Many people have been waiting awhile to get snow in those areas.  All I was hoping for was some cold weather and luckily it is on the way just in time.  After above normal temperatures for most of the last two months including both days this weekend, the cold air will shoot in for the outdoor game tomorrow in Philadelphia.  Only issue that could be more of an irritant to the fans is the cold air will be ushered in with some pretty strong winds that will certainly make the day a cold one. 

Now that December is over we can go back and look at how good the locals were at making forecasts.  I did not do monthly predictions since clearly I don’t have the resources they do so I am out of the running.  But my below average snowfall for Philadelphia still looks good.  Let’s take a look.

Average high in Philly was 50.9 degrees.  That is a full 6 degrees above normal.  Not very normal.  The average low was another 5 ½ degrees above normal.  I would say the month was quite warm.  And of course in terms of snow, squadoosh.  Rewind to the predictions.

CBS- Average Temps, Little Snowfall-  Sorry, can’t give much credit for almosts

Fox kept it simple by saying snow and cold through January.  Guess it’s a miss for now

ABC-  Cold first half.  Try again.

NBC- Below Average, 10 inches.  Credit for specifics but not even close.

Overall I would say that this was a general fail.  Of course it would have been bold to say no snow and above normal temps in December.  But it also would have been right.

Since somebody, specifically the areas I’m watching, are finally getting snow, expect some picture posts soon.  Bring on the snow!   

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