Quick Update

Snow is in the forecast.  That really should be the end of this post.  However, I will continue with a little background.

First, tomorrow evening.  Yes there is a chance of some light snow or flurries.  Either way it won't amount to much.  Most of the precip is to our north.  In fact when I looked at the models last night they showed nothing for our area.  Even on the latest run most of the snow breaks up over the Apps.

Saturday is still intriguing.  As of right now the precipitation moves in early enough that the temperatures are clearly cold enough to support snow.  Then things get interesting.  The latest run suggests the temperature never gets above 38.  It also shows the heaviest precip falling when our temps are right around 35.  That leaves a few options.

Option one is the event starts out as snow.  Maybe a quick inch or two before a change to sleet to nicely ice over the snow.  Should warm air overlap the cold air, a longer period or mixing could occur.  The changeover to an extent to rain might not even take place.  I think this option is less likely (right now).

Option two starts the same.  Starts as snow.  1-2 inches.  Change to a mixed bag for a period.  Then a changeover to rain during the heaviest of the precip before it ends.  Then you have to worry about the roads freezing back up Saturday night.  This is my likely scenario. 

Of course, this could all change by tomorrow evening when I check out the runs again.
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10 P.M. Update ** 

Took a look at the latest model run that updated half an hour ago and wouldn't you know, more changes.  The light snow and flurries for tomorrow is once again gone.  No big deal because... the runs continue to trend colder for the Saturday storm.  Cold enough that with this run we would see primarily snow and sleet.  Very interesting.  Tomorrow's models should begin to narrow down what we will see.  Really surprised to see the cooler trends.  Again, would not buy into much right now.