First Accumulating Snow

Since October that is.  Took awhile but Saturday's storm will certainly bring enough white stuff to give us winter lovers a reason to be happy.  Figures the day I planned to go get my road bike would be the first crappy day in months.  Just means I will be out for a morning run in the snow instead.

I expect the first advisory for Friday night to come out later tonight or early in the morning hours.  With the weather we have been having a winter storm watch is probably likely for somewhere between 2-4 inches of snow and sleet.

First things first.  The light snow tonight.  I am still perplexed.  The afternoon model and the accumulated snowfall map continue to say that the snow breaks up along the mountains.  The short term model has been like that for awhile.  That is why I still think we see very little of anything and some people might wake up without ever having known it did a thing. 

I only have the earlier model to go off of until the next run at 9:30 comes out but the trend has still been colder for Saturday.  The chance for a change over to rain is still possible because the models really don't take into consideration the warm air that overrides the cold air.  Surface level temps could still hover around 34 or 35 producing a mixed bag.  I'm more inclined to say this will be an all frozen event.  I want to see the latest model tonight since I am stuck at work tomorrow.   Update will follow around 10 as well as checking in on the snow if it ever makes it to us.

___________________________________________________________________

10PM Update **

Seeing the lack of snow once again confirms my theory on why I never listen to the mets on local TV.  Still waiting to see who gets closer to that snowfall prediction total for Philadelphia.

Model is in right on time and how about this for that cooling trend.  The latest models suggests the temperature never gets above freezing on Saturday.  It also shifts the heaviest precip south of us towards south Jersey which will be too warm for snow.  Regardless the National Weather Service is usually on the high end for these things so I will bump my totals up for the watch to 3-5 inches.  As of now I am of the opinion we see more towards three.  Either way I am pretty content.  Was looking a few days ago that we were in a mix to rain.  That cold trend took over yesterday and it is has continued again.