Winter Weather Advisory

I'm going to be honest with this one.  The only reason this post even has this title is because I'm beginning to worry that this is the best we can do this winter.  I actually just returned from watching sleets pellets hit the deck.  Seriously.  Sleet pellets?  This is turning quite sad.  Even putting us in an advisory is almost an insult.  Unless you are much higher in elevation, I'm not expecting many issues.

Thought it would be a good time to check with our friends out in the west.  I put my reputation on the line by saying the next map for Seattle could be for totals of 8-12 inches.  You can go back and look at my last post if you don't believe it.  Of course this was assuming the storm to hit Washington and Oregon would drop slightly south, thus trapping much of the unseasonably cold air within the valleys.  Mind you Seattle has also not had a day of six or more inches of snow in 16 years.  Put it all together and what do you have?

Hmmm.  Should be a fun few days in The Emerald City.  If I were to really go on a limb I would suggest a total potentially even higher, but a lot of ingredients have to come together for that to happen.  Would not be shocked if it did.  Hopefully people will be prepared as I've read a lot of talk from residents saying they never get totals like this, many still dismissing the possible major storm.  Only thing I would probably say is I don't think Portland quite gets in on that much action.  They will be close however.  Thinking here is some warmer air will get mixed in especially at the low levels causing more mixing and perhaps maybe even a changeover to heavy rain.  Either way can't wait to see the pictures and videos.  They never disappoint.
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I'd love to boo hoo about our conditions compared to this but winter lovers out west will have a blast with this one.  Not to mention they are/were in the same boat as us.  The forecast for their winter was suppose to be very stormy with shots of snow.  Up until this past weekend, they had seen nothing along with many other areas that are still in a snow funk.  Does this mean there is a shift into the pattern that has been predicted for what seems like months?   Get ready for it folks...

Nope.  NAO remains positive right into February.  We will quickly be running out of time.  Just took a look at the last model run for probably the first time in a month due to my disgust.  I almost have to laugh.  See a nice shot of cold air toward the end of the week with no precip.  Not going to say much yet but Saturday is worth watching.  That's all I will say for now.  Then warm air really extends north all the way to New England.  Next storm takes a track through the Great Lakes = Rain.  Next one goes up the Apps = Rain.  Then the Nor'Easter develops and tries to take a path up the coast.  That's right.  A Nor'Easter my friends. Hold on.  That is assuming the models (who have trouble predicting storms a few days away) are accurate for the day of February 2nd. 

For now I will continue to watch for any signs of snow for Saturday.  The short range model that extends 84 hours should start to pick up something tomorrow.