Not Looking Good Folks

There is still a lot of time for things to change and if there is a hint of change perhaps we can look at the forecast.  I always look at the models before I take a look at what various meteorologists are predicting.  I only have access to so much information and only so much time to put something together.  All of the national centers have some form of snow in the forecast for Sunday.  But how much, if any is still up in the air.  The models are looking to ruin my fun.

Off we go.

We start with the big boy that had the monster on the map yesterday exactly 24 hours ago.  Not so much of a monster (for us) as it was yesterday.  In this case the low is too far out to sea but West Virginia and Virginia get a nice storm if you know anybody down there.

Here is the Canadian run.  Puts it in a very similar position but without all the moisture to the north.  Not a huge difference from yesterday except it moved a tad south.

 

This has got to be the worst run for snow for anybody north of North Carolina.  Actually, nobody would get snow in this case.  I think there is a reason you never hear about the Naval model.  Watch it end up begin right... but I don't think so.

And now that we moved closer, we have a new player in town.  This would be the North American run that looks at storms less than 84 hours away.  Looking similar to the others with only Virginia cashing in.  Although this model needs time to zero in.  If I get a chance I will post the updated run in a few hours to see if there is a change.

Remember that GFS 120 hours snowfall map from yesterday?  Notice the shift in predicted accumulating snow now.  We are now in the less than one inch while places to the south and west are closer to 4-6 inches.  Just goes to show everybody went south with the storm.

However, we are still too far away to make an accurate prediction of what will happen.  That's why people monitor this garbage all day.  It constantly changes.  What we need to find is a trend.  If the next runs keep moving the low slightly south or keep it in the same spot, I'm more inclined to say we are onlookers to the snow.  If we can get a bump north, we are back in the game.

I will go against the computers and say it again.  We will get snow this weekend.  Maybe not a storm, but grass covering snow.

_________________________________________________________________

10 P.M. Update

North American model updated a little while ago.  Have to consider this a move in the right direction.  Precip and low both have moved north and there is certainly cold air in the area. 

Check this out.  I also ran a different North American model for our area that shows the precipitation moving in.  This shot is at the furthest point north the area of snow would get.  Basically anything north of Reading would get nothing.