Cooking with Weather

It's the holiday season.  You plan on baking delicious chocolate chip cookies.  The recipe is in front of you.  All the ingredients are here.  You slide them in the over and set the timer.  When the timer goes off you remove the tray to see the final results.

You're expecting this.

Instead you got this.

So what happened?  It could have been array of issues.  Maybe the cookies were too thin or the oven too warm.  An unforeseen circumstance that changed the outcome.  Perhaps next time you keep a watchful eye and adjust as you go throughout the baking process.

This is the same principle reminiscent of predicting winter weather in the northeast.  Except there are far more variables and you have no control.  I can tell you what the ingredients are and show you the recipe.  I can even give you an idea of what you should expect at the end.  But I can't give you an outcome until it unfolds.

I'm not sure when, where or who termed the phrase nowcasting but it really should be the main term used for predicting our winter events.  It will never happen because somebody needs to be the first to throw out a prediction 48 hours ahead of the storm.  It would be better if they straight up said it was an idea of what to expect and not a final outcome.  Like in my cooking example, they are giving you an idea of what should happen with all the ingredients in play as long as the recipe holds true.

Winter storms have too many dynamics.  I can't say it enough.  All you have to do is look at Sunday.  My gripe isn't that the forecast was inaccurate.  My problem is that too many times channels or sites want to go on the defensive as soon as they are wrong and praise themselves as the first ones to say something when they are right.  Shut up.  If you were wrong say it and explain what happened.  If you were right give a summary and move on.  This is a science that is challenging at it's best.  Give simple explanations and room to make adjustments as storms move in.  It's up to the intellect of the people watching to understand things can change quickly and to keep monitoring weather sites for updated information as needed.

Here we go with another one of the wonderful storm examples that only the east coast can bring you.  Heading into this weekend we have a low moving west to east that will transfer energy to a low off the coast.  Where and when that transition occurs plays a huge part in our weather.

It's going to snow.  That's not a question with these types of events because moisture is coming from both directions.  We also have plenty of cold air this time.  The question really turns into how much.  From everything I've seen I think everybody is in the ballpark so far.  I've seen (for Berks and Lehigh) anywhere from 3 to 8 inches.  Sure some people will bitch that it's quite a large range, but we don't live in Alabama where four inches is going to make a big difference compared to seven.  I also agree that the snow ratios could be a bit higher than normal.  Again that is a benefit of this cold air hanging over us for three straight days - which mind you will cause the snow to stick virtually right away.

As for me I think I've been on the same boat for the past few days.  I think the transfer of energy occurs too far from us and also keeps the heaviest moisture closer towards the coast where it will be rain or a rainy mix anyway.  I also think we are looking at all snow from Reading to Allentown and not any ice.

With all these ingredients my recipe for total snowfall would stand around five or six inches for most areas as of right now.  A change in anything and we could end up with burned cookies.  If you dislike snow that might mean 10 inches or if you like it maybe only 1.