Zero For Two

Nothing shows the complexity and difficulty in predicting winter storms in our area than what we saw this weekend.  Virtually nothing went as predicted.

We can start with Friday.  Model indications showed that rain pushing through the area could change to snow as a push of cold air followed behind the precipitation.  Amounts anywhere from one to six inches were forecast for the area.  I was hesitant from the beginning since it is uncommon for our area to ever see that back end snow.  But the models showed accumulating snow so forecasters ran with it.  What ended up happening?  The precip moved though quickly.  The cold air came rushing in.  But by that time the rain was gone.  Not only did we see no snow, hardly any part of eastern PA did.  As one local weather site said Saturday morning avoiding lenghty reasoning, "let's move on."

It's easier to move on when you get a second chance at making an accurate forecast for a new winter storm 24 hours later.  The winter weather advisories were posted.  The timing and amounts were set.  Then all of the sudden a problem.  For most it probably began when the Eagles game started.  The prediction was for light snow or sleet to begin some time in the second half.  There was no indication of a heavy snowstorm at 1:00.  Advisories changed to warnings.  An inch or two went to 6-8 or even 10.  Areas along the Mason-Dixon line through New Jersey were in heavy banding.  Talk about being unprepared.

I followed the radar closely also using the PA traffic cams to monitor the progression.  Eventually the snow started in Berks from south to north.  It was never anything close to what areas to the south received.  By the way, a note to all.  Conditions tend to be at their worst at the onset of a storm.  For one the little bit of snow that sticks at the beginning makes the road more slippery than when driving on packed snow.  Two, more people tend to be out either trying to beat the storm or unaware there was a storm coming.  All you have to do is look at the Morgantown incident to understand it doesn't take much.

Not a great start to the season for those who predicted low snowfall totals for Philadelphia (ABC).  In the first snow of the season Philadelphia already passed their total for all of last season with 8.6 inches.  Other nearby areas had over a foot.  Meanwhile Allentown reported 1.3 and Reading 1.8.  If Philadelphia can squeeze out 3.5 inches tomorrow they will be over a foot for the season with 10 days left before winter officially starts.  I say they get it.

Below are some of those crazy totals for Berks and Lehigh.  Numbers increase as you head south.

To top off the storm, the second batch that was to move in overnight to give Lehigh and Berks a possible 1-3 more inches including ice ended up moving further east than originally expected giving the area only a coating of ice.

This was an ultimate fail in forecasting.  It shows than neither human or computer knows what will happen.  We can only take a best guess.  And if we rely mainly on models to predict we don't really need meteorologists.

Thanks to mother nature we all get a third chance at saving face with yet another snowfall tomorrow.  This one has fewer dynamics and colder air which should benefit the forecasting side.  I am a pattern guy when it comes to weather.  It all works in patterns.  I could have written this last night when others said models showed the heaviest snow moving across our region and not the Delaware Valley.  Funny how they readjusted again this evening.  The pattern is set that the heaviest snow should fall in the same area that got it yesterday so that's what I'm going with.  A general two to five inches for all would be a reasonable guess.  However I'm not so sure this thing doesn't even move further to the east so that certain sections of our area get little to nothing.  Advisories say 2-4 for most of us and are posted for counties north and west of the area as well.  They are the professionals.  Also of note could see high ratio snow tomorrow in certain areas.  Eight inches not out of the question for some locales.