Day Before Storm B

Going to try something new this year.  I've got the ability to look at a lot of the same things the professionals have available to them.  The only thing I don't have is their amount of time to study all of it or their understanding of many of the finer details that allow them to do the job.  But this year I'm not spending one second checking out what the other sites have to say before the storm.  I can do that on my own.

I've been hovering around the six inch mark for our area, but I also think there is a pocket of heavier snow close by.  It's the last chance to look at the maps before the storm tomorrow.  Let's hit the maps hard.

North American

Two things from this image right when the storm gets cranking.  We are close to the mix line.  A slight shift and we end up in the mix.  I don't tend to lean that way because of how consistent this has been so far with calling for mainly a snowstorm.  The second thing is, as you can see, we end up being in a heavier snow band with this setup.

The North American runs images every three hours so I will post the next image in the series.

Still in the heavy snow.  After this though the storm wraps up quickly as it pushes north and east.  The other thing that you won't see unless I post all the images is that the storm continues to intensify as it moves up the coast.  Screw it, I'll post the next image too as it will help in my explanation.

Again, this is three hours after the second image.  Notice the back end snow coming through Pennsylvania already.  The storm is down to 997 millibars.  By the time the storm exists the coast off Maine it is down to 991.  It's the classic nor'easter.  You can also notice the tighter gradient in winds in the third image.  It reminds me of an unorganized tropical storm becoming an organized and tightly compacted storm.

Now for what we really want to know.  How much snow.  Well according to the NAM, this much.

All purple is over six inches.  Darker shades are at the lower end and lighter closer to eight or nine.  Pink shades start pushing 9.5 to potentially a foot.  You can see those colors blending in to the purple in all of the Lehigh Valley.  That tells me you will get isolated spots of 10 or 11 inches especially in higher locals.  All in all I really cant disagree with this too much as of right now.


GFS MODEL NEW YORK CITY

I can at least say the GFS has been consistent.  There is part of me that wants this to be accurate only so I can use this for the rest of the season with confidence.  I'm not sure if that is going to be the case.  I like the bigger totals for the Poconos, but there is a lot going on here I'm not completely on board with.  I can't see how Berks and Allentown get less snow than places in Bucks and Montgomery yet places to the north get substantially more.  It's not impossible though.

EURO

Time to dissect our old trusty friend.  Unfortunately these can't be posted but yet again I agree with this one the most.  The best chance of snow stays north and west of the big cities.  All areas in the swath stay in a general six to eight inch range.  The heaviest snow runs between Connecticut and Maine in a 10-14 inch range. 



FINAL PREDICTIONS:  I might update this later or even in the morning if I get the time. 

If we get ten more snow storms I will say this ten more times.  This is a tough one.  I'm going to ride with my first instincts that I've had since Sunday.  My feel is the heavy snow band is very close to our area.  I think Reading sits in it briefly while a place like Allentown could sit in it longer.  Also of note since there are not many official reporting stations, Allentown's official total is reported at the airport.  The airport is north and east of downtown by miles.  It's going to help in totals for certain storms.  I will have to try and find official reporting stations so I can make specific guesses.  For now I can only really go with the bigger cities or areas.  And on another note, this year I am also only focusing on our specific area.  That means Berks, Lehigh and Northampton counties.  Or basically my current location and the Lehigh Valley.  It is the name of the blog after all.

BERKS:  Reading - 5.8 inches
-- Outside of the odd GFS run I'm staying a bit conservative.  For one I think the heaviest bands miss the area barely.  Missing those bands will also mean it will take longer for the snow to begin to stick and that doesn't count towards the totals.  Go east and north in the county and things could change quickly.  I'd expect bigger totals especially towards Lehigh County.  Just for comparison when trying to pinpoint areas, Berks is bigger in size than Lehigh and Northampton combined.

LEHIGH:  Allentown - 7.7 inches
-- Crazy right?  A difference of almost two inches between Allentown and Reading.  It's really not.  There can be such huge differences between places much closer.  You are looking at a distance of 50 miles here.  And I think the closer you get to Allentown the higher the totals will be.  Outside of some elevation differences I'd expect most of the county to be near a similar figure.

NORTHAMPTON:  Easton - 8.1 inches
-- They are going to be in that same band which is why I think the totals are similar.  I'm trying to keep some space in between cities which is why I hope Easton reports totals.  Even still it is only 15 miles from the Allentown reporting station.  But that's 15 miles due east which during coastal storms can play a big factor.  The county really shoots north which is why there will be areas that see more substantial snow such as Bangor which is probably looking at more than 10.

If you happen to live on a 900 foot mountain looking north in New Jersey I'd start getting the beer ready to line up along your shoveling route.  You are looking at double digits.


11:15 UPDATE

Well guess who is coming around with just hours left before the storm.  The GFS of course.

Heck of a difference from something I posted just a few hours ago especially in the Lehigh Valley.  Point is I'm sticking with my predictions.

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Watches Posted

Going to keep this one short since I'm starting at 10:30.  Okay, so I wrote that sentence before I even began to look at the models.  I just went to pull the data and wouldn't you know the latest run begins updating at 10:00 p.m. from the GFS.  Which means you have to wait until the update is completed before you can view anything.  So much for keeping it short time wise.

I'll start with the models that have already updated and end with the GFS.  The European has backed off the really high totals.  However the totals for Berks and Lehigh Valley would still be in the 7 to 11 inch range.  The foot plus totals stay to our north in New England.

Here is the North American model that goes out only three days so it is officially within the range.  Actually have to say I like this one a bit more than the Euro but they were similar.  Anything in purple is over six inches.  Any hint of pink is closer to 10 inches.  Lighter pink equals higher totals.


It's been interesting watching NOAA.  After I posted their totals last night they later went on to decrease the totals.  The same decreased totals were up this morning.  By this afternoon they had rebounded back to what they originally posted.  I'm not sure what they use to determine totals, but I have a feeling they rely on the goofy GFS which can be all over the place.  Here are totals from our local weather service currently.

Interesting cutoff in the Philadelphia area.  I'd say this and the NAM are similar.  Now we wait for the GFS to finish.

Don't see a lot of differences in this one and the one from yesterday.  Also have to remember this runs in six hour increments so each frame skips six hours.  So if I post the next image it would be of the storm six hours later.  In this case that would be the majority of the storm.  Even though it looks a bit weaker here, an hour or two later and this could be stronger. 

We end with the GFS run out of New York City for totals.  Not surprisingly it stays on the low side.  Also, I'm not choosing New York City over Philadelphia.  It's actually the only city in the northeast that shows close up totals so consider us lucky. 

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Thanksgiving Snowstorm 2014

Here we go.

Over the past few days word started to spread that there was a possibility of a snowstorm for the time frame around Thanksgiving.  As we continue to progress towards the beginning of the week that possibility is looking more and more like a reality.

I can't remember a snowstorm around the time of Thanksgiving.  Snow certainly isn't uncommon but a major storm is.  Obviously this is poor timing for one of the busiest travel times of the year.  Hopefully though it also gives people a chance to stay inside with a few days off.

Let's get right into it.  I will be posting some model runs each day unless otherwise noted.  These models have really turned into a business (actually they have been for awhile) so there are fewer and fewer available to the public.  I'd suggest you come to this blog first and not even attempt looking for any.  I'll have the info and maps posted.  Again, unless otherwise noted.

POTENTIAL WINTER STORM B

No name yet since you never know.  Timing is around midday for the Valley on Wednesday.  A day or two ago the question of a rain snow mix was in the air. I think you can take the rain out of the equation.  The cold air is going to force its way from the north and west ahead of any precipitation.  Once the precip starts the air will just get colder.

This is the GFS image for Wednesday.  Pretty clear view of the storm intensifying off the coast of New Jersey throwing moisture back inland.  The 32 degree line is the blue line that you can see more clearly going through North Carolina.  You can follow it north and can see only the coastal areas of New Jersey at this time would be in the rain.

Sort of hard to pick up on here but this is the GFS snow total ending November 28th out of the NYC model.  Berks county is on the bottom left.  The number which I can only assume is over Reading is 6.5 inches.  If you notice the area in pink from outside of Philadelphia and up through the New Jersey those numbers are between 9 and 10 inches.  The number over what I guess is Allentown or maybe Bethlehem since it's on the county border is 7.7 inches.  Remember this when I post the same map tomorrow night.

The European model is very robust with snow totals however if you've been following this site you know that the European tends to be much more accurate in the long range.  The totals for just about everybody according to the European are between 10 and 14 inches.  No, I'm not joking.  The European models are not allowed to be posted so I will keep with the rule, and you will just have to believe me.

The shorter range models will start to pick this up tomorrow.  I didn't check the Canadian or Japanese because one, the sites are really slow right now for obvious reasons.  Two, at this point I don't need to check when the two main models both agree on a storm.

Here is what our local National Weather Service is predicting at this time.  The generally go conservative to start so I wouldn't be surprised if this increases.  I'll post their updated totals tomorrow as well.

Expect the watches to pop up sometime tomorrow.  This looks like our first storm of the season.  Who thought we would have a white Thanksgiving.  At least you can get in some exercise before eating too much food.






    

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You Can Put It On The Board

YES!

I had thought for sure that my first taste of winter would come on some 1,000 foot hill during a trail run watching snowflakes fall in a county north of here.  Or at least that is how I planned it in my head.  Turned out I didn't have to go anywhere.  Not only did we see our first snow but also knocked out the first accumulating snow.

Mark it down as November 13th.  I don't recall a forecast that mentioned accumulating snow.  A flurry maybe.  That's how weather goes.  I got the news while I was sitting in my windowless office.  It was snowing out.  Wait what?  If anything I thought it would be much later at night before a changeover took place.  It took me all of 7 seconds before the four-year-old in me had to get up, walk out of the office and go see for myself.  Indeed it was true.  15 minutes later and a co-worker who had already left work called and updated me on conditions.  Some of us just can't get enough.

It kept snowing for a solid four hours though it didn't really get to sticking until the sun had set for an hour or two.  By that point the flakes were large and a coating quickly showed on colder surfaces. 

It's not great but I do have proof of the snow.  Granted I didn't try hard to get a good picture as I snapped this one after getting back from my hockey game.

Next is a morning shot of the snow from the prior evening.

For a system that wasn't forecast to produce much of anything there were some decent reports coming in.  Now I'm going to state this now before any more snow falls this winter, but I have a hard time accepting some of the reports that come in even if it is through a trained spotter.  I'm a trained spotter, and I wouldn't trust myself to be accurate.  Some higher local locations reported between 3 and 4 inches around the Lehigh Valley.  Berks had amounts close to 2.5 inches from trained spotters.  I know where I was it wasn't close to that.

Officially Allentown reported half an inch.  These measurements are taken at the airport using a weather observation system.  It's basically a 24 hour system that updates every minute.  I'll take that reporting over the guy who measures snow in his yard with a stick (or if done by standard spotter rules, a piece of plywood) every few hours.

Plenty of cold air for us next week.  Not so sure about any snow events.  Small chance Sunday night and even smaller on the backside Monday.  Otherwise it doesn't look like we will see another snowy scene for a few weeks. 

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Winter Storm Artimus

Details

• Date:  November 1st - 2nd
• Impact Areas:  TN, NC, ME
• Peak Winds:  70 mph - Nantucket, MA
• Snowfall: Mount LeConte, TN - 22 inches -Spring Creek, NC - 22 inches -Cary, ME - 21 inches 
• Notables:  Measurable snowfall in western and central South Carolina, 150,000 lost power in New England

Forget the fact that most of the northeast missed out on snow entirely while Greenville, South Carolina saw half of their seasonal snowfall already.  There hadn't even been a major snowstorm anywhere in the country before the southeast was measuring with a yardstick.  If this is any indication of the year to come, the east might be in for a treat.

As odd as this storm was for the time of year, evidence is beginning to show that the snowy pattern could persist.  The consensus is the southeast will be well below average in temperatures this winter.  Think on the scale of three to five degrees which is significant.  Think of our winter last year.  Between November and March we averaged just about four degrees below normal, and I think we all remember how cold last winter was.  The issue with the south is that even in a cold winter temperatures still might not be cold enough to support snow. 

It still is a little too early to tell how the winter will unfold.  There is also a slight sign that arctic blocking could develop shortly which could signal the beginning of the coastal storms.  With the threat of the polar vortex again this year, making an appearance next week in the central U.S. and sliding east, and a possible blocking set up one can't but help to think this is setting up to be another above average snow season. 

Here is what Artimus showed me.  The pattern changed with this storm.  It happens every year before winter begins and when winter ends.  After all the awesome weekends we had, the first one in November brings a snowstorm, rain, winds and cold.  This weekend we experience our coolest temperatures since last weekend.  And there will be another snowstorm in Maine.  Here is what else I learned and already knew.  Winter storms are awesomely amazing.  I'd love to be shocked by the pictures of three inches of snow in South Carolina, but I'm not.  You never know what is going to happen.  I will admit I'm much more impressed by the few inches at low elevations then the 20 plus inches in the mountains.  Those areas are so under appreciated for their winters.

With my own new naming system I hope to be able to track east coast storms with news, pictures and videos.  Artimus hit before I even knew I was doing this so my content isn't the greatest.  I also realize with the possibility of a storm this weekend that meets my characteristics we might have more storms than I originally thought.  This probably has to do with me not paying much attention to storms that don't have a huge impact on any area close to me.  Either way I will have a summary of any nor'easter if it qualifies. 

Locally our weather goes downhill next week especially as the polar vortex sweeps in during the middle portion of the week.  It's also a good time to start looking at potential storm systems to produce our first snow of the season.  As of now there is nothing imminent but as I said earlier you never know what is going to happen.     

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Naming Rights

Over the weekend parts of the Appalachians were blanketed with a very rare early season snow with higher elevations doing very well.  But it wasn't only the high elevations of the south that received snow on the first day of November.

If you are wondering, the storm did not have a name associated with it.  Fear not friends, the folks at The Weather Channel once again are ready with their lists of winter storm names for the upcoming season.

If the names and system for naming storms seems stupid, it is.  I expect the reasoning why this past system was not named was because it didn't affect a large enough population.  The snow was centered in the mountains of the Appalachians and the northern parts of Maine.  This is precisely why the naming system has had little support when there are no set standards.  I don't necessarily hate the idea of naming winter storms however the only storms I can see naming are nor'easters as they have characteristics similar to a hurricane that can be categorized.  But for TWC that would alienate most of the country except the east coast.  I live on the east coast and don't care about a bias.  They can use their system and I will use mine.

Here we go.  These are the simple rules for obtaining a name.

1.  Must be a Nor'Easter or energy associated with it.
2.  Contain winds of at least 50 mph
3.  Snows (at valley level) must exceed 10 inches

That's it.  Very simple.  I should explain the first one as it has the potential to be confusing.  It's easiest to explain with this past weekend storm.  The snow that fell in New England was the classic nor'easter.  The snow in the south was not, but it was part of the same batch of energy.  Therefore that snow will count towards the entire storm.  It would not have received a name had it only snowed in the south though.  It wasn't a nor'easter at that point.  It would be rare for a batch of energy to only produce snow in the south, transition to a coastal storm and not doing anything in the northeast so I think we will be fine with the standards.

The wind is standard.  Doesn't need to be sustained.  Gusts are fine.  Snow is obvious.  By valley I only mean I'm not going to name a storm because Mount Washington receives a foot of snow but everywhere else only gets rain.  That is an actual spot that doesn't affect anybody outside the few people at the observatory.

My names will go in alphabetical order from A - Z and be picked randomly.  Many of them won't make much sense like many The Weather Channel uses.  If they can have fun this year so can I.  My next post will be a recap of the first winter nor'easter of the year.  Storm A. 

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Guess Who's Back

Let the 2014-2015 winter season begin.  This blog has officially become a seasonal site.  Even though it's not the official start of winter or even the meteorological, I consider the season to run from November 1st thru March 31st.  Any snows before November or after March are added bonuses which have certainly occurred in the past.  With winter storm watches and warnings peppering the Appalachians in Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina, together let's enjoy the next five months.

It's brisk, damp, dreary, wet and chilly as I sit here peddling my first article of the season.  Hold on a minute.  My suspicion has been confirmed.  It's November.  Welcome to one of the crummiest months of the year.  If the cold, damp air wasn't enough of a punch in the face, tomorrow's 30 mile per hour winds will surely blow away any remaining summer tan you are desperately holding on to.  The lack of sunlight will seal the deal when the second day of November brings the new sunset time to before 5 p.m.

I've expressed my feelings on this time of year for quite some time, but it's not just me.  Our culture has embraced the month for what it is.  Now you're thinking, Ryan please enlighten me.  Gladly.  Every month brings certain sights, sounds and thoughts.  Even music can portray certain seasons from Summer Breeze or Under the Boardwalk to the cheerful holiday music that is a few weeks away.  I can't take you down to the paradise city as by no means do I consider myself much of a GNR fan, but the band did supply one of their most iconic songs that also became the unofficial song of November.  It's lengthy but if you are unfamiliar have a listen.




The song is approaching 300 million plays through YouTube.  It's a well known tune.  A good old power ballad from a band that is not known for this type of sound.  With a name like "November Rain" you kind of already know what to expect.  No uptempo song here.  

Within the first ten seconds of the video you get a blustery wind, dark room and the sound of rain hitting the ground.  As I sit here looking out at the trees swaying on this overcast day through a window dotted with raindrops I'd say we are off to an accurate start.  Each time we see a scene of light it transitions quickly to dark.  Another good representation of the constant changing weather in this beautifully ugly month.  Then the slam dunk.  The last line of the refrain.  "In the cold November rain."   I'll move on.

Movies you ask?  Indeed there are movies that highlight or at least touch base on the month.  In fact just this summer Pierce Brosnan starred in The November Man.  Take a look.




Whoa whoa whoa.  What did he say?  They called him the November Man because once he came though everything was dead?  I can't help but laugh now.  Even a nickname and movie title use the basis that everything dies in November.  Once again I agree on the perception and will move on.

It doesn't help that the month is sandwiched between two of the more vibrantly colorful months.  October screams of autumn with the changing of the leaves to brilliant colors.  If October had an official color it would be bright orange.  And if gluten has become our biggest enemy, pumpkin has become our new bestest friend.  That stuff has made its way into everything.  Then December comes calling with its month-long celebration of Christmas with songs, lights, shows, goodies, decorations and Jesus.  How can November compete with Jesus.  It's also the one time of the season when most people are actually hoping for snowstorms so that people can celebrate a white Christmas, just like the ones we all use to know.

Thank goodness November has a holiday.  The motto of the month should be "At least we have Thanksgiving." Truthfully it really is one of the better holidays of the year.  But continuing with the sights and thoughts associated with months, what color represents Thanksgiving (and November) best?  For me it is simply.  Brown.  My guess is most agree.  Freaking brown.  If you type in the word Thanksgiving or November into an internet search you literally get dozens of pictures that are generally surrounded by brown.  The trees are bare, the grass is dead, the turkey is brown, the Pilgrims wore brown, the Indians wore brown, the leaves that were once colorful are now delicate pieces of brown mulch.  People will tell you the colors are rustic or earthy.  Those words aren't in November's vocabulary.

Thanks to the Rodale trails for the first time in many many weekends I won't even be able to get out during this first weekend of November.  Not that the conditions are optimal anyway.  Remember all those perfect weekends over the last four or five months that never seemed like they were going to end?  Over.

Now we wait for the first flakes of the season.  It won't be next week but once we hit double digit dates I'd start to take notice.  

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