Day Before Storm B

Going to try something new this year.  I've got the ability to look at a lot of the same things the professionals have available to them.  The only thing I don't have is their amount of time to study all of it or their understanding of many of the finer details that allow them to do the job.  But this year I'm not spending one second checking out what the other sites have to say before the storm.  I can do that on my own.

I've been hovering around the six inch mark for our area, but I also think there is a pocket of heavier snow close by.  It's the last chance to look at the maps before the storm tomorrow.  Let's hit the maps hard.

North American

Two things from this image right when the storm gets cranking.  We are close to the mix line.  A slight shift and we end up in the mix.  I don't tend to lean that way because of how consistent this has been so far with calling for mainly a snowstorm.  The second thing is, as you can see, we end up being in a heavier snow band with this setup.

The North American runs images every three hours so I will post the next image in the series.

Still in the heavy snow.  After this though the storm wraps up quickly as it pushes north and east.  The other thing that you won't see unless I post all the images is that the storm continues to intensify as it moves up the coast.  Screw it, I'll post the next image too as it will help in my explanation.

Again, this is three hours after the second image.  Notice the back end snow coming through Pennsylvania already.  The storm is down to 997 millibars.  By the time the storm exists the coast off Maine it is down to 991.  It's the classic nor'easter.  You can also notice the tighter gradient in winds in the third image.  It reminds me of an unorganized tropical storm becoming an organized and tightly compacted storm.

Now for what we really want to know.  How much snow.  Well according to the NAM, this much.

All purple is over six inches.  Darker shades are at the lower end and lighter closer to eight or nine.  Pink shades start pushing 9.5 to potentially a foot.  You can see those colors blending in to the purple in all of the Lehigh Valley.  That tells me you will get isolated spots of 10 or 11 inches especially in higher locals.  All in all I really cant disagree with this too much as of right now.


GFS MODEL NEW YORK CITY

I can at least say the GFS has been consistent.  There is part of me that wants this to be accurate only so I can use this for the rest of the season with confidence.  I'm not sure if that is going to be the case.  I like the bigger totals for the Poconos, but there is a lot going on here I'm not completely on board with.  I can't see how Berks and Allentown get less snow than places in Bucks and Montgomery yet places to the north get substantially more.  It's not impossible though.

EURO

Time to dissect our old trusty friend.  Unfortunately these can't be posted but yet again I agree with this one the most.  The best chance of snow stays north and west of the big cities.  All areas in the swath stay in a general six to eight inch range.  The heaviest snow runs between Connecticut and Maine in a 10-14 inch range. 



FINAL PREDICTIONS:  I might update this later or even in the morning if I get the time. 

If we get ten more snow storms I will say this ten more times.  This is a tough one.  I'm going to ride with my first instincts that I've had since Sunday.  My feel is the heavy snow band is very close to our area.  I think Reading sits in it briefly while a place like Allentown could sit in it longer.  Also of note since there are not many official reporting stations, Allentown's official total is reported at the airport.  The airport is north and east of downtown by miles.  It's going to help in totals for certain storms.  I will have to try and find official reporting stations so I can make specific guesses.  For now I can only really go with the bigger cities or areas.  And on another note, this year I am also only focusing on our specific area.  That means Berks, Lehigh and Northampton counties.  Or basically my current location and the Lehigh Valley.  It is the name of the blog after all.

BERKS:  Reading - 5.8 inches
-- Outside of the odd GFS run I'm staying a bit conservative.  For one I think the heaviest bands miss the area barely.  Missing those bands will also mean it will take longer for the snow to begin to stick and that doesn't count towards the totals.  Go east and north in the county and things could change quickly.  I'd expect bigger totals especially towards Lehigh County.  Just for comparison when trying to pinpoint areas, Berks is bigger in size than Lehigh and Northampton combined.

LEHIGH:  Allentown - 7.7 inches
-- Crazy right?  A difference of almost two inches between Allentown and Reading.  It's really not.  There can be such huge differences between places much closer.  You are looking at a distance of 50 miles here.  And I think the closer you get to Allentown the higher the totals will be.  Outside of some elevation differences I'd expect most of the county to be near a similar figure.

NORTHAMPTON:  Easton - 8.1 inches
-- They are going to be in that same band which is why I think the totals are similar.  I'm trying to keep some space in between cities which is why I hope Easton reports totals.  Even still it is only 15 miles from the Allentown reporting station.  But that's 15 miles due east which during coastal storms can play a big factor.  The county really shoots north which is why there will be areas that see more substantial snow such as Bangor which is probably looking at more than 10.

If you happen to live on a 900 foot mountain looking north in New Jersey I'd start getting the beer ready to line up along your shoveling route.  You are looking at double digits.


11:15 UPDATE

Well guess who is coming around with just hours left before the storm.  The GFS of course.

Heck of a difference from something I posted just a few hours ago especially in the Lehigh Valley.  Point is I'm sticking with my predictions.