Thanksgiving Snowstorm 2014

Here we go.

Over the past few days word started to spread that there was a possibility of a snowstorm for the time frame around Thanksgiving.  As we continue to progress towards the beginning of the week that possibility is looking more and more like a reality.

I can't remember a snowstorm around the time of Thanksgiving.  Snow certainly isn't uncommon but a major storm is.  Obviously this is poor timing for one of the busiest travel times of the year.  Hopefully though it also gives people a chance to stay inside with a few days off.

Let's get right into it.  I will be posting some model runs each day unless otherwise noted.  These models have really turned into a business (actually they have been for awhile) so there are fewer and fewer available to the public.  I'd suggest you come to this blog first and not even attempt looking for any.  I'll have the info and maps posted.  Again, unless otherwise noted.

POTENTIAL WINTER STORM B

No name yet since you never know.  Timing is around midday for the Valley on Wednesday.  A day or two ago the question of a rain snow mix was in the air. I think you can take the rain out of the equation.  The cold air is going to force its way from the north and west ahead of any precipitation.  Once the precip starts the air will just get colder.

This is the GFS image for Wednesday.  Pretty clear view of the storm intensifying off the coast of New Jersey throwing moisture back inland.  The 32 degree line is the blue line that you can see more clearly going through North Carolina.  You can follow it north and can see only the coastal areas of New Jersey at this time would be in the rain.

Sort of hard to pick up on here but this is the GFS snow total ending November 28th out of the NYC model.  Berks county is on the bottom left.  The number which I can only assume is over Reading is 6.5 inches.  If you notice the area in pink from outside of Philadelphia and up through the New Jersey those numbers are between 9 and 10 inches.  The number over what I guess is Allentown or maybe Bethlehem since it's on the county border is 7.7 inches.  Remember this when I post the same map tomorrow night.

The European model is very robust with snow totals however if you've been following this site you know that the European tends to be much more accurate in the long range.  The totals for just about everybody according to the European are between 10 and 14 inches.  No, I'm not joking.  The European models are not allowed to be posted so I will keep with the rule, and you will just have to believe me.

The shorter range models will start to pick this up tomorrow.  I didn't check the Canadian or Japanese because one, the sites are really slow right now for obvious reasons.  Two, at this point I don't need to check when the two main models both agree on a storm.

Here is what our local National Weather Service is predicting at this time.  The generally go conservative to start so I wouldn't be surprised if this increases.  I'll post their updated totals tomorrow as well.

Expect the watches to pop up sometime tomorrow.  This looks like our first storm of the season.  Who thought we would have a white Thanksgiving.  At least you can get in some exercise before eating too much food.