Watches Posted

Going to keep this one short since I'm starting at 10:30.  Okay, so I wrote that sentence before I even began to look at the models.  I just went to pull the data and wouldn't you know the latest run begins updating at 10:00 p.m. from the GFS.  Which means you have to wait until the update is completed before you can view anything.  So much for keeping it short time wise.

I'll start with the models that have already updated and end with the GFS.  The European has backed off the really high totals.  However the totals for Berks and Lehigh Valley would still be in the 7 to 11 inch range.  The foot plus totals stay to our north in New England.

Here is the North American model that goes out only three days so it is officially within the range.  Actually have to say I like this one a bit more than the Euro but they were similar.  Anything in purple is over six inches.  Any hint of pink is closer to 10 inches.  Lighter pink equals higher totals.


It's been interesting watching NOAA.  After I posted their totals last night they later went on to decrease the totals.  The same decreased totals were up this morning.  By this afternoon they had rebounded back to what they originally posted.  I'm not sure what they use to determine totals, but I have a feeling they rely on the goofy GFS which can be all over the place.  Here are totals from our local weather service currently.

Interesting cutoff in the Philadelphia area.  I'd say this and the NAM are similar.  Now we wait for the GFS to finish.

Don't see a lot of differences in this one and the one from yesterday.  Also have to remember this runs in six hour increments so each frame skips six hours.  So if I post the next image it would be of the storm six hours later.  In this case that would be the majority of the storm.  Even though it looks a bit weaker here, an hour or two later and this could be stronger. 

We end with the GFS run out of New York City for totals.  Not surprisingly it stays on the low side.  Also, I'm not choosing New York City over Philadelphia.  It's actually the only city in the northeast that shows close up totals so consider us lucky.