I Was High

Regardless of location I don't think we saw as much snow as we thought we would.  Turns out the heaviest band of snow ended up going to our south.  Philadelphia saw more snow than Allentown did.  The models ended up being incorrect.  Shocking of course.  If there is one thing I did get right it's that we never saw a changeover to ice or freezing rain.  Keep in mind amateurs the dominance of what cold air can do.

Now let me delve into my Saturday.  Since the hardcore trails are almost unrunable I went to the flat trails of Hamburg with the intention of getting in 16-20 miles.  Of course I waited until I figured it would be snowing without being dangerous on the roads.  By mile three it was coming down hard enough I couldn't look straight ahead.  The trail at Hamburg is flat and wide and I knew the conditions would be good enough to allow for a steady pace.  I didn't realize the fourth and fifth miles were untouched and made running horrible.  It was like running on a tight rope while being drunk.  I made it to the end and turned around with the eventual intention on running to the 10 mile mark and turning back around.  Thankfully the podcast I was listening to before I went out was talking about frostbite so I went out with gloves and a winter hat, something I've done exactly once so far this season.  Really glad I did as the wind kicked up during the run and even made me cold.  Instead of returning to the car and going back out for more running I stopped to take a gel at ten miles so I could turn around and run back.  This was mainly because I figured if you make it back to the car you won't want to go back out.  I went to wash down the gel which is like drinking a paste and found that the camel back of water I was carrying had actual froze.  I couldn't get a drop.  I've never had that happen before.  It made it an easy decision to go back to the car.  When I made it back I didn't even realize that between the snow and sweat I had a beard of ice chunks.  No wonder I was cold.  It was also the first time at this trail I never saw one person.

If you don't mind the cold this week might actually be decent for you.  There is a slight chance of very light snow or flurries on either Tuesday or Wednesday.  Accumulations would be very light.  The next big storm system is a southern hugger so shouldn't see anything from that one.  Have to keep an eye out on the weekend.  Something seems to be brewing.  Can't say it will have an impact on anybody but the cold air is firmly in place for the rest of the work week and weekend.

I'll be back shortly with more information and with a post related to extend forecasts that I decided to look into a few weeks back.  Enjoy your Sunday as temps will not get close to 40 for awhile again. 

Read more...

Cold Air Wins

I touched on the storm briefly before but as we see the winter storm watches posted I feel we all have an understanding of what is headed our way tomorrow.

I mentioned last time that we seem to be on the warm side of the storm by quite a large distance.  We still are on the warm side except the distance shrunk and there is another huge factor.  I've said it before and will say it again.  It's really really hard to have this kind of cold air in place with lows near zero roughly 12 hours before a storm system is coming and get warm air to take over.  Cold air is dense and will win a lot of battles.  The main reason you see ice or sleet is because warm air made a push into the cold air.  The warm air didn't overtake the cold air.  It managed to slither into various layers of the atmosphere to turn snow into rain.  The cold air at the surface turns it back to ice or slightly above the surface in cases of sleet.

Let's hit the maps.

 
30 HR GFS model shows a nice heavy band of snow working through. 

Predicted snowfall staying consistent at 5 inches for almost all with small pockets of 6 or 7 and closer to 3-4  near the NJ border.

NAM model is a beast for our area. 



This is the second image after the initial heavy snow that moves through as shown in the GFS above.  The NAM model keeps us in heavier snow longer which is why the total is higher.

Euro has the exact same totals as the GFS with all areas in the five inch range.

Considering a few days ago it looked like mainly a rain maker this one has changed considerably.  That's why these are interesting to watch.  I think there are elements to both of the models that make sense.  There is a question whether this will ever change over to rain.  If it does it will be brief.  It also arrives earlier than anticipated which really helps hang on to that cold air.  I lean towards higher amounts of the ranges especially if we can lock into the cold air without getting too close to the freezing mark where ratios will go down.  As of right now we are actually in one of the better spots for snow locally as we sit in the heaviest precipitation.

It won't be the biggest snow of the season, but I think it slides into the second spot.  I also believe like the maps indicate there will not be a huge difference between Reading and Allentown aside from higher locations.

Allentown - 6.4

Read more...

MASSive Snow Totals

We hear a lot about the amount of snow Boston has been getting which is understandable.  The numbers are historic and are not likely to happen again anytime soon.  Since January 24th without including today they have received 90.8 inches of snow.  That's in 25 days.  Of those days eight did not see measurable snowfall.   Very unusual.  However they clearly are not the only area getting hit hard.  Much of New England including many areas of Maine have seen enormous amount of snow.  Worcester and Lowell have seen more snow than Boston this year and are the only major cities to have over 100 inches.

Locally we are inching our way towards an average seasonal total.  There is probably no better term than that for how we have accumulated snow this year.  If you look at the current snow total in the table to the right you will see the seasonal total as of yesterday.  Allentown has recorded 19 days of measurable snow.  You can figure out the average.  As we wind our way towards the end of winter the question becomes would you prefer a snowy winter or a cold winter.

My guess is if you ask people they would say this has been a bad winter.  What makes it bad?  Last February we had 36.5 inches of snow during the month or more than we normally see all season.  The lowest high we had was 21 and the average temperature for the month was 25 which was six degrees below normal.  Certainly not a lot of fun if you are looking for warm weather.  This year we have seen a quarter of the snow total but the temperature hasn't hit 20 three times already with more on the way.  And check this out (which might need to be looked into further for historical purposes).  The average temperature for the month is 11 degrees below normal.  Not one day for the rest of the month is forecast to be even close to average except maybe Sunday if you want to be generous.

Quick side note right around 9:00 one hell of a snow squall moved through.  Heard the wind and looked out you could barely see across the street.  Hopefully word gets out as driving in that would have been almost impossible.

Enough chatter.  Let's see what we have coming up.  The weekend is mix of a variety of crap.  Don't think there is any denying we are on the warmer side of the storm because the 32 degree line extends well west and north.  Here is the kicker.  Clearly as we have been talking about there is plenty of cold air in place when the storm initial gets here.  Timing plays a part but I could see this beginning as some heavy snow Saturday evening.  Then we go over to rain before the sweeping cold air comes rushing in from the west which would have the possibility for this to end as a period of heavier snow.

Now if you predict weather based off the Euro you can forget all I said because that model takes the storm to our west which would not even give us the initial snow and has it ending on the back end too quickly to give us any amounts.

** That little squall has stayed together.  Heading for Allentown next.  Will see if it keeps trucking along. 

Read more...

A First From Me

I need spring to come early.  Wait, what?  Get out a pencil and jot the date down.  It probably won't be mentioned again for awhile.  It's something I've been thinking about for awhile and now have finally said it here where it will be kept for as long as this page is here. 

See, here is the problem.  When I was made aware of an early March run around Blue Marsh lake I thought it was a perfect opportunity for me to get in a long distance trail run.  Normally the only race they have at the lake is a 50k.  That's about 15k more than I'm willing to do.  The shortest option you have at this run is 20 miles which I'm willing to go for especially when they have aid stations every three miles.  Besides, I never consider these races.  I had not thought about what the conditions might be like.

I try to get over to the lake almost every weekend to run the 7 mile loop that contains various elevation changes and running conditions.  It's just enough of a challenge to be fun and annoying at the same time.  That has changed recently.  Normally on a spring or fall day you will catch other runners out around the lake or at least people in general.  That hasn't been the case lately.  In fact the past two weekends that I've been there have yielded a total of one other person and that happened to be the guy I work with who caught up to me on the loop.  He's an actual hardcore runner.  I'm not so much.  We both looked at each other and said this sucks.

Trying to run in hard packed crunchy snow is horrible.  Your legs and feet take a beating.  It's like running on uneven rocks the entire time unless the trail happens to be packed down.  Some places your feet go down to the bottle and other places you barely crunch awkwardly through the top.  This past weekend I was getting so frustrated I started kicking the snow.  I ended up being out there for over three hours and never saw another person over 13 miles.  The last two miles saw more walking than running and the course was about as flat as it gets.

I'm not liking my chances of having this stuff melt by the time the run takes place.  Especially when every time you look at a forecast you see more cold and chances for more snow.  The one thing I do have going for me is I've been out to the course every weekend so I know exactly what to expect.  There are going to be a lot of people showing up who have no idea.  That's if the course is still covered in snow and ice.  As bad as last winter was the temperature on March 8th was 52.  The problem was February had almost 30 inches of snow so it's not like it was melted by that date.  The run is also early in the morning so it was probably in the 30's.  And if anything the warmer temperature melted just enough snow to turn things into slush which gets your feet wet and freezing cold in a matter of minutes.  This might turn into more of a hike and less of a run.


Here is what we having coming up over the next five days.   

Neither model is calling for much in the way of snow on Saturday.  Both sit at around one inch so expect some light snow here and there with little accumulation.

Interestingly both models also keep the next system on Tuesday to the south and the east.  I'm not going to post maps because if I had posted yesterday it would have shown us getting socked by the storm.  Now it has us on the edge.

Euro totals thru Wednesday have all of the area receiving six inches while the GFS has all of us at three inches.  I'll talk more about the Tuesday system later as I feel this one has more potential than any other storm we have seen this year.

Read more...

Hitting The Bars

Really wanted to get to other things tonight aside from weather but things are getting comical now.  There is talk of where this winter will rank in the history of Boston.  The way things are going I wouldn't be stunned if it became the snowiest.  What's more impressive is most of it has come over the past three weeks.  Get ready for more.

I'm not breaking any rules because the things I am posting do not have much of an impact on us.  At least not right now.  In case you haven't heard it is going to get cold.  Of course you have because I said that a few times on here.  In fact I'm pretty sure you can enjoy the cold right into mid March.  Part of what makes this intriguing is it isn't just the northeast.  The cold extends right down to the coast of Florida.  It too doesn't make much of a move.

I'm not really sure what to tell the people of New England at this point.  Numerous places received more than two feet of snow today.  Which means there are places that have seen over 60 inches of snow in the past three storms.  Today was clearly not a nor'easter.  The next one, well...

Seriously?  That is nuts.  In the next image the millibars drop down to 970.  I'm sure I've said it before but the lower the drop the more intense a storm will become.  It might also help to know that pressure is listed in inches which I believe show up on local weather forecasts either on The Weather Channel or local news.  I will double check as soon as my local weather comes on.  Almost everything weather related is done in metric.  As is the above.  1013 millibars is standard.  980 equates to roughly a category one hurricane.  Let me just say that while the storm above is very strong I am putting this up here because the weather Boston has been getting lately is historically odd.  This would take it way over the top.  FYI - Late Thursday

Everything from here down is the second reason I decided to post.  Hold on.  TWC does indeed include the current pressure on the local forecast which is currently 29.99 or about normal.  Back to the show.  I'm going to pull back from the image above a bit so you can see the shape of the storm from afar.  Think of this as looking down from space.

   
This is one reason you don't want to be out on a boat during these storms.  You can see the tight formation close to the storm.  Once again these look very much like hurricanes with the circular formation, strong winds close to the center and heavy precip on the north and west sides.  Isobars remain close for hundreds of miles.  No doubt this is a big one.  Easily over a foot from Long Island to Maine.  Also known as the jackpot zone of 2014-15.

Now watch this.

What the hell?  This is the system trying to crank for the weekend.  Look at the size of this storm even compared to the other one.  You have snow sitting off the coast of Florida.  Heck there is a reading of 35 degrees in Florida with the 32 degree read line along the Florida-Georgia border.  As the storm continues towards Canada it drops to 951mb.  Not entirely uncommon when it gets sucked into the jet.  Does show the potential strength.  This is too far away.  I posted it now because if the trough digs in a bit more with no worry about cold air in place I'm afraid Boston could disappear from the map under the amount of snow they will see from the previous storm and this one.

LEHIGH VALLEY 

The maps above do not show either storm hitting us.  That doesn't mean we won't see anything.  The one on the weekend is too far out so I won't touch base on that one.  The system for Thursday falls right into the time frame when we can start to take a look at predictions.

Of course the model I wanted to use is currently updating so I will have to come back later to finish this post.  Stay tuned for some rudimentary figures.

 
GFS is not impressed with Thursday.  This map is starting to look common for our area.

Read more...

Head North

I mentioned two things in my last post that I will bring up again because they are of importance to the discussion.

1.  Patterns - Cycles in weather are common.  They happen in winter, summer, in 5 year stretches, in two week stretches.  There are all sorts of different patterns.  That's why I target Boston metro as the area to continue to see the snowfall.

2.  Trust the models with temperatures.  Storms not so much.


There are reasons you never get too worried or excited about storms that are five days away.  There are reasons you don't blow things out of proportion when you know weather models will shift 4 times in one day during 4 runs.  I've been checking on this mess heading into early next week every morning and evening.  Each day it gets less and less impressive.  So much so you might as well wave goodbye.  There should be a rule that outside of 5 days you can only mention the potential of a storm.  In the 4 to 5 day period you can show maps.  3 days away and you can begin to make predictions.  I'm sure I've not always abided by this but I think for the most part I do.  From now on this is exactly the rule I will follow on here.  Luckily for me I haven't said much about this next system or posted any maps.  There is a reason for that. 


I'm going to show you the latest predictions from the GFS for total snowfall between now and Tuesday.

To be clear if you are having any trouble figuring it out this map shows Reading receiving somewhere around zero inches of snow.  This shift north has continued and continued and continued.  What makes weather and models such a pain in the ass to follow is most outlets went with the GFS which had Pennsylvania looking much like New York does now just a few days ago.  The GFS had been right twice before.  Look back at my last post and it says the Euro has the storm to the north with our area in 1-3 inches.  Well nobody sided with the Euro because as I also said, it's been getting destroyed by the GFS.  Now it seems like it has flipped again.

Who gets hit again with a potential one footer?  Boston.  Follow the pattern.  Of course this could all change again over the next few days though the chances of that are dwindling every hour.  We are still very close to the 32 degree line for the garbage that will come Sunday into Monday.  At this point I'd expect to see a bit of everything especially as you continue to moved north and northeast. 

Forgot during my last post to give an updated snow total.

Allentown - 23.1 inches

Read more...

Ride The Train

The track remains as storms continue to push through the region.  New England took another sizable hit with this last one as Boston ended up with over 16 inches of additional snow.  There are now many places that have seen between 35 and 45 inches of snow during the last two storms.

I realize I might have missed two nor'easters.  Whether either qualified is up for discussion.  The first was the weak clipper that passed through then developed off the coast of Maine.  Snowfall did exceed 10 inches though the wind speed is questionable.  For this reason I will leave it off the nor'easter naming list.  The one that passed through Sunday into Monday will more than likely need a name and recap as the only question was did it even become a nor'easter which I believe it did off of Massachusetts.  For now we will skip it because well, you know, I have a job and stuff that limits my time on here.

Back to that train.  Patterns people.  If I'm betting money my guess is Boston keeps finding a way to get more snowstorms.  Whether we remain on the edge is a matter of question.

For whatever reason the European model is really getting its ass kicked by the GFS.  I should probably also check the models before I start writing.  The European tried hard to get this storm on the 5th up the coast.  GFS said not happening.  After looking at the models the European has all but given up except for some snow way out on the cape.

Both agree on very light snow Thursday.  I mean very light.  A coating would be pushing it.  Then we get into another disagreement for Sunday and Monday.  The GFS is holding onto a snow event.  I'm not sure what else to call it because it's not a coastal storm.  In fact the majority of snow stays south of the New York border.  In the latest run a slow moving system ends up forming a decent low off the coast of North Carolina before pushing out to sea.  It's at least something to keep an eye on.  Pennsylvania is dotted with 6-10 inch totals.  The Euro keeps the system to the north and moves it quickly.  According to that model we would be in the 1-3 inch totals and New England would again come out with a decent storm.

As a side note the Euro has had an off-again on-again fascination with a pretty good storm for the south.  South being Alabama-Georgia-South Carolina.  I don't see anything of note yet but with the way this next month might play out who knows.

I tend to think models do better with temperature trends as opposed to figuring out where storms will form and go.

 
Here is the predicted temperature trend from now until March 20th.  I'll let you figure it out.  I'll also say this.  You can break this down by five day stretches.  There wasn't one that showed temperatures above average for any period.

Read more...

Here Goes Nothing

I'm now going to start throwing some different maps at you just for fun.  We get to go on the journey together as I am posting these without seeing previous models.  Here are the latest NAM runs for today (updates every six hours and just updated about two hours ago) for snowfall predictions.  Mind you the snow here has begun as of 5:30.

Latest model shows 6 inches in Reading and 7 inches in Allentown.

Earlier today from around the lunchtime hour.  Totals were a bit less.

Run from early this morning.  Bigger from this morning but a more drastic cutoff.

The models always continue to adjust as the storm takes shape.  With that so do the people predicting what we will get.  I wanted to let my post from tomorrow stand, but I wouldn't be following my own advice that says predictions need to be given room for adjustments based off the latest information.  My totals posted from tomorrow probably won't be accurate.  They now seem high.  However I will not change those.  I'm just noting that they are less likely to be correct.

The National Weather Service made adjustments as well.  This is their latest map.  Keeps most of us in the 4-6.

The ice map would be a cause for concern if it was correct since our entire area is in a tenth to quarter inch.  I'm not quite convinced this would happen and even if it did in some areas, it could melt before anybody knew of it.  I changed my mind.  I don't see ice as a concern.


GFS out of NYC.

If you're in fantasy weather model leagues it might be time to start playing the GFS.  Seems like they got this storm right as well.  Here is what they are predicting on the run that also just updated within the last hour.  They even give it to you by the tenth.

Reading 3.1
Allentown 5.6

Looks like another near miss for us.  Have to wonder if that is how the pattern is setting up this winter.  There are certainly more events to watch for in the future.  The predictions for tonight seem to continually be dropping.  At this point seeing a few inches sounds like it might be a lot.  All we can do now is watch it play out as all the models won't update again until later tonight.

I will be keeping this post open tonight.  As far as I know nothing else is going on tonight so let's kick back and watch the show regardless of how unimpressive it might be.

Read more...