Head North

I mentioned two things in my last post that I will bring up again because they are of importance to the discussion.

1.  Patterns - Cycles in weather are common.  They happen in winter, summer, in 5 year stretches, in two week stretches.  There are all sorts of different patterns.  That's why I target Boston metro as the area to continue to see the snowfall.

2.  Trust the models with temperatures.  Storms not so much.


There are reasons you never get too worried or excited about storms that are five days away.  There are reasons you don't blow things out of proportion when you know weather models will shift 4 times in one day during 4 runs.  I've been checking on this mess heading into early next week every morning and evening.  Each day it gets less and less impressive.  So much so you might as well wave goodbye.  There should be a rule that outside of 5 days you can only mention the potential of a storm.  In the 4 to 5 day period you can show maps.  3 days away and you can begin to make predictions.  I'm sure I've not always abided by this but I think for the most part I do.  From now on this is exactly the rule I will follow on here.  Luckily for me I haven't said much about this next system or posted any maps.  There is a reason for that. 


I'm going to show you the latest predictions from the GFS for total snowfall between now and Tuesday.

To be clear if you are having any trouble figuring it out this map shows Reading receiving somewhere around zero inches of snow.  This shift north has continued and continued and continued.  What makes weather and models such a pain in the ass to follow is most outlets went with the GFS which had Pennsylvania looking much like New York does now just a few days ago.  The GFS had been right twice before.  Look back at my last post and it says the Euro has the storm to the north with our area in 1-3 inches.  Well nobody sided with the Euro because as I also said, it's been getting destroyed by the GFS.  Now it seems like it has flipped again.

Who gets hit again with a potential one footer?  Boston.  Follow the pattern.  Of course this could all change again over the next few days though the chances of that are dwindling every hour.  We are still very close to the 32 degree line for the garbage that will come Sunday into Monday.  At this point I'd expect to see a bit of everything especially as you continue to moved north and northeast. 

Forgot during my last post to give an updated snow total.

Allentown - 23.1 inches