Impressive Hail Storm

Large hail is uncommon for our area.  Receiving significant amounts of hail is too.  That changed today reminding us how quickly weather can change.

Slightly before 4 p.m. a strong and powerful supercell formed and moved through Reading.  What it lacked in size it made up for intensity.  At the time I wasn't following the radar.  I didn't need to where I was at.  It was only after I happened to check my phone that the news started coming in about the hail storm.  Soon half the office was gathered around radar maps and checking phones for the latest images. 

Car windows were broken.  Highways were at a standstill because of the damage to cars.  People were holding up pieces of hail bigger than golf balls.  There are hundreds of pictures out there so I'm not going to go through all of them.  For records I am going to post a few to remember this event.

This photo was widely circulated of a motorist pulled off to the side of the road with clear damage to the windshield and hood.

From Twitter User Ashley Reed:  The Wyomissing area was hit particularly hard which contains much of the shopping areas for Reading.  Wyomissing and West Reading saw the most damage to cars and businesses.

When I left work I wondered how long it would take before I would start to see signs of the storm.  It was so small in size that I knew it would be a matter of a mile or two between nothing and something.  It wasn't until I got to Route 61 that I started to notice large piles of leaves on the ground.  It was the first sign that hail fell on the area.  As I turned into the complex under every tree was a pile of leaves.  I pulled into my parking spot and noticed the ground looked odd.  Well after an hour had past and the signs were still there.

 

This is what was left all over the ground even though the temperature was in the 70's.  I have no idea how long it was sitting there, how much accumulated or how big they were.  No cars in the parking area were dented outside of one that I assumed came from somewhere else before parking.  Got lucky.

Luckily when I went to the gym the TV was already turned to ABC 6, the station I normally watch.  Obviously the coverage would center on the hail storm.  When Cecily Tynan came on the first thing she mentioned was that in the 19 years she has been with the channel in Philadelphia she has never seen anything like it.  When the ABC Nightly News came on at 6:30 the very first story they had on the national news was the hail storm and this picture.

 

I can't say I would have liked to have witnessed this but at the same time I would have liked to witness this somewhere safe.  This storm came in so fast that nobody would have been prepared.  It also makes you think about weather far worse than this event.  This type of day is exactly the same as what people in the south and midwest experience before a tornado.  It was sunny outside.  There was no sign of bad weather approaching even at two in the afternoon.  Two hours later and hundreds or maybe thousands of cars suffered major damage.  Wyomissing just happened to be the spot today.  It could have been where I lived or worked.  It could have been my car.  And this was only a hail storm.  Nobody lost a house or family members or all possessions. 

Weather is unpredictable.  Almost anything can happen at any time in any place.  We are actually all lucky because many times cells like this produce tornadoes.  Going through a heavily populated area would have been bad.  With the severe season beginning as well as hurricane season on June 1st, things are only going to get more interesting.  Word on the street says the thinking this year is hurricanes will trend further north than normal with the hot spot being between North Carolina and New Jersey.  Let's bring back winter.

Speaking of winter I'm pretty sure that the snow is officially over which means I must post a year-end recap.  Thankfully I did not see or hear one person say sleet today.  Not sure it means anything though as most people still don't understand the difference.  The next post will be my winter recap before dare I say I do a first time hurricane prediction this year.  Why not.

Read more...

Going for Gold

This would have been a great year to hold the Winter Olympics in Pennsylvania.  Cold air has been plentiful as too has the snow.  Erie leads all cities in total snowfall as of today.  Philadelphia only trails Chicago in most snowfall for cities with more than one million people and sandwiched in between is Allentown.

The last time we spoke Allentown was currently sitting at their 4th snowiest recorded winter.  Philadelphia sits in the bronze position dating back to 1884.  Allentown would need 8.7 inches to reach the top spot.  Oddly enough Philadelphia's record snow, recorded just four seasons ago, is higher than that of Allentown. Philadelphia would require 19.2 inches to eclipse that mark.  They did pick up an additional 1.1 inches this week and are within reach of the second spot.

The calendar has officially changed to March.  The weather won't be changing.  February was a month to remember.  In Allentown the temperature averaged six degrees colder than normal.  That's a lot.  The snowfall for the month was 36.5 inches.  That's more than the seasonal average.  If you now take November, December, January and February the temperature has averaged 3.5 degrees below normal.  It might not seem like much, but that number is very unusual in it's consistency.  The first two weeks of March are also projected to be below average which got me thinking.  If we assume March is also colder and snowier than normal and we don't exactly know what April will bring, it's possible you could be looking at a six month period of winter-like weather.  Ring your noggin off that one for a minute.  Even the hardiest of us have to laugh at that concept.

But the real reason we are here is to discuss the title of this post.  The snowstorm that could break an Allentown record. 

It's certainly not unusual to get a snowstorm earlier in March.  I'd love to go back and see how many we have had in the first week of March as I remember there seemingly being one every year when I was in grade school.  In fact some of the best and most powerful storms occur in March because of the increase in energy and moisture as the arctic air battles the return of warmth from the south.  If you remember the "Storm of the Century" back in 1993 when places from Alabama to Maine saw upwards of 20 inches of snow with many pockets of over 30, the date would have been between March 12th and March 14th. 

We aren't going to see that this time since it is tracking from west to east and not up the coast.  However, that doesn't mean we won't see some impressive totals.  The question as always is where will that be.

I've been onboard the express train to Philadelphia all season long.  I'm not getting off now.  Everything is suggesting the further south you go (to a point) the more snow you are going to get.  So if you drove from Scranton to Allentown to Reading to Philadelphia, the totals would progressively climb.  The bulk of the moisture is trying to go through Maryland and D.C.  Not only that but temperatures are going to plummet during the storm especially for places to our distant south.  At the onset temperatures in D.C. could start in the 50's before ending as heavy snow in the 20's.

For us it becomes more of a factor of where the heaviest bands set up.  Right now the suggestion is along the Mason-Dixon line to points just north.  Philadelphia would see a solid 10 inches or more.  With temperatures being as cold as they are it would not be out of the question for places like Reading and Allentown to end with similar totals even though there would be less moisture.  At this point I'd put Reading and the Lehigh Valley closer to the 8 inch mark.  In fact I will say Allentown picks up 8.6 inches just so they trail the record by a tenth of an inch.

Not like that would matter.  There is still a whole month to go even after this storm.  At this point we might as well shoot for 80 inches.  10.5 inches gets Philadelphia to 70 for the season.  It would only be the second time they have ever done that in 130 years.

If anything changes tonight into tomorrow I will post.  Otherwise I'm holding on to the 8.6 and 10.5.  Anybody ready for summer yet?

Read more...

Rising Towards the Top

I'm not sure how this winter season will end up ranking compared to past winters.  I guess it could be a matter of opinion.  Numbers don't always give a clear indication.  What I have taken away from the season so far is the persistent nature of snowfalls and the steady stream of coldness.

We can start with the facts about this winter taken from recordings at Allentown Airport.  Including today the snowfall this season is at 66.7 inches.  That is 4th all time since recordings began in 1922.  Ahead of this season is 1993-94 (75.4), 1995-96 (71.4) and 1966-67 (67.2).  Considering the late February to early March outlook it would seem likely we at the very least move into second place if not first by the time winter is over.  Anything over a half inch will place the three snowiest years within the last 20 seasons.  Maybe that will put to bed the stories of the old timers telling us how high the snow was in their day.  The answer is apparently not as high as today.

This season we have had so far:

• 22 days of measurable snowfall

• 12 days of temperatures that fell to single digits

• 6 different days the low fell to negative numbers

• 31 days the high temperature failed to reach 32

Unfortunately I don't have the ability to compare this to anything historically.  However I could easily say this is unusually.  For instance, the average temperature in January was five degrees below normal.  The average temperature so far for February is seven degrees below normal.  It doesn't seem like a lot but it is.  December was right on average and November was three below normal. 

This type of weather starts lending itself to the cries of forecasters reassuring the upcoming warmup.  A normal winter has many ups and down.  Hitting 50 twice after all this cold must be like saying it will be 70 to many.  Here's the full story.  The following two weeks after this weekend will probably see temperature on average around 10 degrees below normal.  Ten degrees.  Two weeks.  Enjoy those 50's.

If we are going to break snowfall records this is going to be the year.  Everything added up to keep the cold air in place and the moisture flowing.  The next few weeks will not be nearly as active.  That's probably a good thing at this point.  It doesn't meant that there aren't chances for snow.

So by the time March ends (or April the way this is going) could we call this the worse winter in recorded history?  You could.  Will it be the snowiest?  I'm going to guess that it will.  Hitting that number one spot would make this the greatest winter ever.  Not the worst.  It's all how you look at it.

Read more...

Pre Valentine's Day Storm of 2014

Winter storms always have the possibility of changing right up until they hit.  Hell, they can change during the middle of the storm.  As I worked and meteorologists studied maps it is becoming more evident this has the makings of a big storm.

I didn't think I was going to get to make another post, but the National Weather Service has changed their idea today so I figured why can't I.  I was always told if you can't trust the accuracy of a government agency who can you trust.

If you look at my post below you will see the totals they were going with right up through this afternoon.  Now it looks like this.

Widespread totals of double digits for Allentown and Reading as well as much of north western New Jersey and extending into the Poconos.  Philadelphia deals with some mixing.

Remember that darn North American model that wouldn't move the moisture as far west as others?  Here is what it picks up now.

The yellow to orange colors are at least 1.5 inches of rain.  What makes this one a little different is many areas in the heavy moisture will deal with mixing or a change to rain.  Our area is in one of the best for all heavy snow.  In this setup you are looking at upwards of 15 inches.  If you look around the NYC area you are probably getting closer to 20.

What makes this storm interesting to many is the size and area this covers.  You already have a major ice storm in the deep south.  Heavy snow between 10 and 20 inches will fall from Virginia to Maine.  It won't hit the big cities quite as hard as the interior cities but nonetheless this will make the history books simply because of the range of impacts.

Warm air might actually give us a little change over at some point.  Frankly that will just makes things worse.  It's already going to be a heavy snow.  We don't need to add to the weight with sleet or ice.  Let's stick with the snow and hope everything goes well.  Unless you have an important job that needs to keep you out tomorrow, enjoy the snowfall from inside.  I haven't really seen anybody predict less than 10 inches for our area.

We got lucky last time.  I'm not sure how lucky we will get this time.  Snowstorms are awesome until you lose power.  Assuming I am home and with power I will update when I'm not outside rolling around in the snow like a puppy.  Otherwise you will most likely find me outside enjoying every minute of the last major snowstorm of the season.  Who could ever get tired of this?

Read more...