The Unknown

When it comes to the approaching storm my new rule is no guessing.  These are the types of storms that nobody will know how much snow a place like Allentown or Reading is going to get until it is happening.  Some places are going to get hit hard like the New Jersey coast, Long Island and Boston.  What makes it worse is when you combine heavy snow and high winds there is a 100% chance that thousands of people will lose power right before the coldest temperatures likely of the entire season hit. 

I almost posted last night when I saw the western shift from the NAM model.  These short term models tend to be accurate.  Again though, it is very difficult to get this type of thing right.  It's like predicting the exact landfall of a hurricane a day before it hits.  Some organizations have hinted at a western shift even when the models said no.  Others have been more cautious.  I still don't know who is right.

The best I can do is post the predicted local totals from various groups.  I'm sure these will be constantly changing as the storm approaches.  Remember, a day or two ago most of the models suggested an inch or two or less for our area.

Short Range Model

Heck of a cut off from basically nothing west of Berks to 16 inches at the coast.  Model tends to be a little robust, but who knows.

NOAA

The GFS and European are not worth posting for us.  Both have our area in 1 inch or at most 2 inches.

Here is what I can tell you.  If you really enjoy snow consider this a win.  You could travel 50 miles west and see nothing.  If you do not like snow or do not enjoy a morning commute in the snow, this could be a problem.  If everything stays on track in will be white outside when you get up and snowing when driving to work.  That is never enjoyable.  Can't really say the evening commute will be a lot better with the potential blowing snow and icy roads.  Depending on how cut off the moisture is there could be parts of our area that see very little and therefore will not deal with problems.  Again though you have to go west for that.

We will see how this plays out tomorrow.  We are in one of these patterns.  Let's get through this one first before jumping ahead.  I do want to at least point out that Monday of next week should be watched closely.
 

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2017 Ends - 2018 Begins

When it comes to 2017 we were warmer and wetter than normal.  Here are some of the numbers.

Warmest Month = July  75.6 degrees

Wettest Month = August  8.45 inches

Coldest Month = December   31.6 degrees

Snowiest Month = March  18.3 inches

Total Precipitation = 49.77 inches

Average Temperature = 53.6 degrees

Aside from the average temperature and warmest month there are quite a few unusual numbers here.  December is a big surprise for coldest month as is March for snowiest.  These really should be going to January or February.  August is generally not that wet and isn't even in the top five wettest months.  The past three years had a total of six and a half inches in August combined.  July has averaged 6.1 inches over four years.  Hitting 50 inches of precipitation is not normal.  We average somewhere in the lower 40's.

Weather is constantly changing.  You have to expect weird things to happen.  For me the close of a year gives me a chance to look back at how many miles I got in.  This past year I felt a little lazy.  Perhaps that was because I backed off the running a bit.  Even still I put more miles in biking and running this year than ever before.  Luckily Strava puts together a video for your yearly review. 

Into 2018

Maybe it is the new year that leads me to be a little different on the first.  Or maybe it is a tradition I cannot break.  I looked back at my activities on January 1st since I started keeping track.  Here is what I found.

It started normal in 2014.  I went for a jog in my Muhlenberg neighborhood that lasted 3.99 miles.  This is a clear indication I never look at distance when I run.  Then things started to get a bit odd.

On January 1st, 2015 I went for a 15 mile run at Blue Marsh.  That ended up being the longest run I did in all of 2015.

In 2016 I went for a 4.84 mile run at 12:01 a.m.  For reference the temperature at that time was 38 degrees.  Not bad for a late night run in January.

In 2017 I went for a 30 mile bike ride in the morning and followed up with a 7.8 mile run in the afternoon.  A day of both running and biking is very rare for me.  And I've never put in anywhere close to 40 miles total.

That brings us to 2018.  Time to bring back the midnight run?  No.  The answer was simple and had nothing to do with the cold.  When I did it in 2016 it was a Friday night.  Easy to get the sleep schedule back on track with the rest of the weekend.  This year the next day is a work night and if running at midnight at best you get to sleep at two in the morning.  I had a different idea.

The coldest temperature I can recall running in was during a 5k in 2014 when the temperature was 14 degrees.  I still have a picture from the event because of how cold it was.  We are obviously in a cold stretch right now.  I figured I could run in something colder and there is no colder part of the day than the morning.

I went to bed at a normal time and prepared to get up for a morning run.  The first thing that strikes you is how dark it is early.  The sun doesn't rise until close to 7:30.  This is also usually the coldest part of the night since the sun has been down for the longest amount of time.  I waited a little longer than I expected, but I wasn't going to pass up the cold. 



As you can see above I started at 6:26 a.m. almost exactly an hour before the sun came up.  Oddly enough I didn't see anybody else out running.  Oh well.  I did my standard loop being mindful of potential icy spots and keeping in well lit areas.  One might wonder what the conditions are like at that time of the day.  Glad you asked.  The day before I found a site that shows local weather conditions based on standard backyard weather stations.  Just so happens there is somebody three blocks from me connected to the site through their personal station.  Here is what was recorded at the time I started.

At almost the exact second I left the temperature read 4.3 degrees.  Dew point is basically the equivalent to wind chill.  Easily beats my previous record of 14 degrees.  I personally find cold temperatures to be fairly similar once you get below 20 so I can't say it was any different than a normal cold winter run.  I'm sure when it comes to exposed skin there is a difference.  When I got back to my building I noticed another first when it comes to cold running that stuck with me through my elevator ride back to my floor.  This is what my winter hat looked like.

Not sure the science behind it but the entire hat should be the dark blue color you see in the middle towards the top.  It is almost like the heat escaping through my head was freezing back on to my hat.

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Let's Dance

The 1.2 inches Saturday means the official total did not get to 10 inches for the month.  Still we are above average.  The heaviest precip was south of the valley where some places hit three inches.  I can never pass up an opportunity to get out in the snow.  Maybe I should live in Erie.  I did learn something though.  If you ever have your phone outside on a hot day the phone will eventually shut off if the device gets too hot.  Well the same thing happens in the cold.  At the four mile turn around I took my phone out and the screen went black.

Speaking of Erie the snow continues to pile up.  When I last touched base on Erie they had received 53 inches of snow in 30 hours between Christmas and the following morning.  Since then they have managed to add another 29.3 inches.  That puts the total for the month at 121.3 inches.  Previously the most snow they ever had in one month was 66 inches.  Part of what makes these numbers so incredible is because of the banding, you do not have to go very far outside the city to see the numbers drop quickly.  The city just happened to be in the bullseye.  It will be interesting to see how much they end up getting for the season and how record breaking that could be.  Hitting 200 inches for a major city would be icing on the cake.

The big story this week besides the plunging temperatures will be the question of a coastal storm.  That question comes up a lot for our area during the winter.  This one is unique because it is basically coming up straight from the south.  The European model has continually trended slightly west albeit slightly.  If it continues that trend there might be a story.  As of this morning here are the predicted totals to give you an idea of how close this is to the coast.

Atlantic City = 8 inches
Allentown = 2 inches
New York = 2 inches
Harrisburg = 0 inches

Even New England misses the big event as it strengthens near Maine and unloads in Canada.

The GFS isn't buying into any of this as of now except that the storm strengthens once past the U.S.  At this point these models are having trouble agreeing on a few things.  One model has an all rain event for the second potential system next week and the other has all snow.  That's a pretty big difference.  So now we play the back and forth game until this system arrives Wednesday night.  All I can say at this point is the further east you are the better the chance you see accumulating snow.

I'll post a 2017 recap later today. 

 

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Single Digits

Driving home through the little town of Bethlehem got we wondering.  The side streets were clearly and recently sprayed with salt in perfectly straight lines as if a snowstorm was coming.  Maybe something changed in the forecast.  Going back to last Friday I did mention there was a threat of a snowstorm this week.  I left it at that since there is never a reason to get ahead of yourself in winter.  I mainly use the idea of a storm to see how active the pattern could be.  Sure enough basically every storm scenario for the week fell apart except for the small disturbance Saturday.

There is a chance of some flurries tomorrow if that is important to you.  And when I say flurries I mean in very select areas and literally some flurries.  Then we move on to Saturday.  The system moving through is working with a lot of dry air and not much in terms of fuel.  It seems likely at this point it will snow during the day at least briefly.  In terms of what to expect I would put it this way.  Expect very light snow in all senses of the word light.  Expect at most an inch, likely less.  Do not expect issues.  The temperatures are clearly very cold right now.  This is the type of snow that will blow off the roads as soon as a car passes. 

It is certainly possible to get some higher totals in specific areas.  I'm not overly convinced that happens.  If Allentown can squeeze out 1.6 inches we will hit 10 for the month.  Not that interesting compared to other areas (looking at you Erie), but it has only happened once in the last seven winters.

Temps

Tough break for those coming home for the holidays that live in warmer areas.  This is an unusually cold week and will extend through the first week of January.  I don't have a large sample size, but the last three winters did not have any lows in the single digits during December.  We should get there at least twice.  Also going to be tough for anybody planning on spending 2017 into 2018 outdoors.  Both the low and high temp should be about 20 degrees below normal.  Keep that in mind if you are bar crawling or one of those weirdos that goes running in the middle of the night.  Locally Allentown is the only place I know of that has outdoor activities that lead up to midnight which includes fireworks.  Can't imagine it will be crowded downtown this year.

Upcoming

Going to continue to reiterate this every time for the rest of the winter... I hate to jump ahead.  One model is currently showing the potential for a storm next week.  When you talk storms with potential for large snow amounts word can spread fast online.  File it away and we will discuss later. 

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