Vacationing Cold

Say farewell to the colder than normal temperatures.  At least for a little while.  The cold air takes a retreat north until at least next Tuesday.  The next shot of really cold air shows up the weekend of the 8th and is followed by the coldest temps of the season the following weekend.  Obviously that is quite far from now but just telling you what the models show.  Looking ahead that far can also pinpoint dates to maybe watch for if the ingredients come together.

NAO is still strongly negative around the 9th, the same period where it shows a shot of cold air coming down from the north.  The next seven days show very little precip in the area other than what looks like a cold front Wednesday night.  However, the weekend of the 8th does show a system moving through that would look to have rain with snow on the backside.  There is also something on the 12th and the 14th, the latter showing a formation of a low out to sea the same time temps really drop.

What does this mean?  Nothing.  In the short term enjoy the warmup.  In the back of your mind keep those other dates in mind down the road.

SNOW


I was going to find a map of the Delaware/Lehigh Valley and do a fancy snow total map for all the places that reported totals from this last storm.  Instead I noticed the weather service, who gets paid to do this, did a map of there own that I will share and give my two cents.

I draw one conclusion from looking at this map.  I believe there is no actual method to accurately measure snow in an event like this.  I'm not going to disagree with anything but if you look at specifically Montgomery Country they have two locations reporting less than an inch surrounded by four places that reported more than three inches.  In Berks, Kutztown reported 3.2 inches while an unknown location very close by was under an inch.  The "official" totals are to the right.


RUN UPDATE

Coincidentally this year my birthday happened to fall on the same day as the Lights in the Parkway middle of the week run.  What better way to celebrate than a run where your from.

For my liking this was just about perfect.  I forgot to check the temperature at the start, but I'd guess around 34 with a light breeze.  The night before I loaded an app for running onto my phone for the first time to see what it would calculate.  I never take my phone running but felt this was a simple enough run that I could hold it without having any problems.  I must admit I hardly noticed the lights and decorations.  It was dark enough with some patches of ice that I focused either on the path or out ahead trying to catch people who started in front of me.  Regardless, it was a nice little experience and another local run to cross off the list.

Here is what my phone recorded.  Will go off the page a little. 

Official time was 22:32 so pretty accurate in that respect.  Green marker was the start and red marker the finish. 

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Wintry Dynamic

Glad I got in a late post last night to up the totals a bit.  Looks like preliminary reports show ranges in the Delaware and Lehigh Valley's up towards five inches in spots.  We will have to wait for final totals until at least tomorrow.  Like always Reading is on top of things currently reporting zero.

I want to get a little bit into the dynamic and talk about what the Weather Channel also got into this morning.  I woke up a little before six and saw no snow on the ground.  I was a little perplexed.  However once I actually opened the front door I did notice it snowing very wet flakes, possibly even mixing in with rain.  I opened the radar up right away.  The rain snow line was just north of the area.  Then came the wonders of weather.  As the minutes kept progressing the line of snow moved slightly further south.  Before long it was a nice light snow.  The trend continued all around the area.  Except normally you would get the opposite affect as daylight approaches.  The snow falling into the atmosphere continued to cool the surface temperatures so that eventually the temps continued to fall to where snow could be supported.  Once the change occurred it was all snow.  The snow lasted until about 3:00 continually falling lightly to moderately. 

In the areas I was in with the temps just above 32, the snow tended to accumulate while melting at the same time.  Similarly, once it stopped snowing temps increased three to four degrees to the point where you could here it melting already.

Either way I will take a quick shot of winter a bit early.  The way the trends are going, we won't be seeing a return to cold or snow for awhile.  Got a couple pics after all of one hour of light snow before I was off to work.

RUN UPDATE

I don't normally get into updating any outdoor events I might be attending for reasons unknown to me since weather often plays a major influence with conditions.  However, it is getting to that time of season where things can get very interesting depending on the forecast. 

This past Sunday offered a fairly challenging 15k trail course through French Creek State park.  Now to the weather.  It was actually nice depending on what you consider nice is.  Never saw the sun and there was a solid breeze very noticeable when crossing the dam.  I'd guess basing off the high of the day at 39 that it was probably around 36 or 37 during the run that started at 10 a.m.  The dryness of November kept the course clean and if trees were lost after Sandy, I didn't really notice.

Kept the run relaxing starting towards the back of the group and keeping a steady pace.  Lot of single file running for the first few miles didn't help, but I was not in a big rush.  Finished with a solid 1:31:15.

Thanks for the pictures.

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Final Storm Comment

After taking a look at some of the information coming in tonight it would appear that there could be more energy than originally anticipated for this system.  While it won't be anything to go crazy about it has the potential to cause more problems than originally thought.  Temperatures in the morning should be cold enough to cause snow to stick to roads quickly, and it appears that snow could be falling at heavy rates between 8 and 1 p.m. throughout the area.

I would suggest that much of the northern sections of the area receive closer to 3-6 inches as opposed to 1-2 inches.  If that doesn't do it for you maybe this will.  For the first time that I can remember, according to the Weather Channel, veteran meteorologist Mike Seidel will be covering the storm in the great city of Reading tomorrow morning.  Perhaps an indication that we might be getting a bit more than an inch or two.

Either way it will be something to continue to watch including staying safe for the morning commute.  And remember, turn on the Weather Channel tomorrow morning to get live updates from Reading.  Or just look out the window, maybe the media vans will be outside your door.

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Winter Ready

No better time to make a winter prediction post then directly before the first snow event of the new season.  That's more then can be said for last year when no predictions were out ahead of the October snowstorm.  The advisories are starting to pop up for the small event tomorrow morning that will leave most places with a nice little coating to prepare people for the Christmas season.

Now to the predictions.  I'm going to keep it pretty simple this time and give totals from the media outlets and if more come in that  I find, I will post them to the side.  All are for Philadelphia.

CBS - (Kathy Orr):  Kathy is pegging February as the wintry month with cold temperatures and higher snowfall including two potential nor'easters.  CBS takes the over with 22-28 inches.

ABC - (Cecily Tynan):  Agreeing with many others on the factors Cecily focuses in on the coastal storm and also shots of cold air from Canada.  She goes above average because of this and lands at 24-32 inches.

FOX - (Scott Williams):  Scott is the new guy on the block stepping in for JB.  Maybe he knows something the rest don't as he has gone with the lowest overall totals at 18-24 inches.

NBC - (Hurricane Schwartz):  Glenn looks at the recent coastal storms in October and ones in recent years as well as the correlation with the snow cover in Siberia and Canada to suggest a snowy winter.  He goes the highest at 30-35 inches.

Philly Weather - (Blog):  This very well done site says what many should when saying that all the current factors make this winter a tough one to predict.  With that in mind and other small details they stay at average with a prediction of 20-25 inches.

Metro - (John Bolaris):  After being dismissed by Fox for some personal problems John Bolaris is back, kinda.  Bolaris has found a spot writing for the Metro and while normally I wouldn't dig too deep into daily publications Bolaris has a strong background in forecasting.  Bolaris stays modest though does think coastal storms could be a large factor as he goes with a total of 20-25 inches.

Lehigh Valley Weather - (Me):  I'm not predicting for Philadelphia so I'm not really in the running like the ones above.  However, based on the circumstances this winter could be a back and forth battle of times of warmer and cooler temperatures.  I am going to put more stock into coastal storms (something that will also be added to the side) and go with a general above average total of 37-45 inches for both Reading and Allentown.

OTHERS NOTES
For the past two seasons I have picked locations to follow to see how much snow they would end up receiving.  Both times the two locations received well below normal snowfalls for that season.  I will follow both locations this year again to see how well they do.  Those will be to the right.  However, I will need a third location to keep the annual event going.  This year we add Caribou, Maine to the list.  All three of these locations could conceivably go above 150 inches.  They will stay on the right side in order of annual average snowfall.

Something else added to the list once the first snowfall starts will be something for my own curiosity.  I often think that if it were not for coastal storms are winters could be pretty boring.  Really boring.  So let's see how much snow we get and average it out with the final total for the season that comes from non-coastal storms.  I'm going to go with somewhere around 85 - 90 percent of our snow is related to coastal storms.


One other small note.  This season I will focus on the area specifically around the Delaware Valley not including parts of Delaware or New Jersey.  Basically I am looking at the eight counties from Berks, Lehigh and Northampton on south to Philadelphia has the area to watch. 

UPDATE:

Since I started this the winter weather advisories have moved east and now include all eight counties I was just talking about except Philadelphia and Delaware.  I'd say a general two inch total across most of the area will be common.

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Snow Run Combo

There is a chance I might be able to predict future snow events based off when my next run will be.  Saturday saw a steady stream of lake enhanced snow activity between bouts of light snow and heavy flurries that lasted for a good portion of the day in State College (best video I could get below).  Looking at past radar indicated that snow also was flying locally here as well.   And this morning I was off to tackle the hills of French Creek for a 15k trail run.




Normally this would be nothing out of the ordinary except the next chance, or in this case, the next snowfall looks to be coming early Tuesday morning.  Again, it is late November and snow is not out of the norm.  Except once again, I have a run the next day.  Is there a chance that if I  take all the running dates from now until March and use the date before, that will be the day of a snowfall?  It is completely meaningless but let's see how it goes.

SNOWY TUESDAY
Now onto the snow.  It would appear we will be getting our first measurable snow of the season on Tuesday.  The storm played a lot of tricks within the models and I'm sure there could be another trick to come in the next 36 hours.  However, the storm doesn't bomb out over the ocean and kick back moisture so instead a smaller area will all see a general 2 inch amount.  I would expect a bunch of winter weather advisories to go up tomorrow.

CHILLY NOVEMBER
As we slowly pull away from November one trend that began and ended the month is the below normal temperatures.  I know it might seem odd but the average high for a day like today is 49.  The highest we got was 39.  And every day for the rest of the month is predicted to be below normal for high and low temperatures.

LOOKING AHEAD
NAO stays negative straight through the first week of November.  Things look pretty quiet after this small snow event Tuesday.  Things start getting more active closer towards the 8th-10th of December.  Clearly that is too far away to care about right now.

We are a bit behind on our snowcast like we did last year as every Philadelphia station has put in their totals for the year.  I will get all of these up as well as those of other sources shortly including my guess for this area.  I will also add a couple other little games off to the side to play while we watch this winter unfold.  Again, those will be explained in an upcoming post probably tomorrow.

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Quick Change

Like what commonly occurs, it takes one big storm to change the pattern and ever since Sandy the pattern thankfully has been relatively quiet and average.  In fact if you haven't noticed November has been dry.  Reading has picked up less than 3/4 of an inch of rain compared to over eight inches in October. 

That quiet pattern might be set for a change.  Take a look at the NAO forecast.

Notice the very short red bars of positive NAO turn into longer bars of a solid negative NAO.  And once again this would mean a dip in the jet stream to favor shots of cold air with the chance of storms coming up the coast.  Put it this way, it's the difference between a flat jet stream and one shaped more like an elongated U. 

SHORT TERM:

A cold front will sweep into the area Saturday morning.  Cold would be relatively speaking.  Temps should be about ten degrees below normal but both days this weekend look to include at the very least a breeze.  The front won't have much moisture to work with so a passing flurry in the higher terrain is about as much as we can squeeze out of this one.

There is a storm brewing for the middle of next week.  It would appear to be a rainmaker at this point in time however we have a week to go yet.  I'm not even going to bother putting any images up as they will be all over the place.  Just keep in mind something might be in the works.

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Storm Totals

Not going to have a lot of time to get in a lengthy post about the storm.  Clearly the forecasts were off as they typical are when you have no idea where a storm is going to move and at what point it will strengthen.  Instead of it hugging the coast it went a bit further out to sea.  Either way, I was skeptical about the area receiving any snow and my skepticism turned out to be correct.

Other places got a heck of a lot more than they were preparing for.  If the Weather Channel can create stupid names for winter storms based on no merit then so can I.  Here are the highest amounts being reported from winter storm Aretha.

Fairfield, CT - 13.5
Clintonville, CT - 13.5
Freehold, NJ - 13
Jackson Twp, NJ - 12
Manchester Twp, NJ - 12
Hamden, CT - 12
North Haven, CT - 12

Others of note:

Newark - 6.2
Central Park - 4.7
Atlantic City - 2.5
Allentown - 0
Reading - 0
Philadelphia - 0


I mentioned the storm would signal a change in the pattern.  It is almost already noticeable.  Storms will have cold air to work with as they come parading in from the Pacific.  Yesterday the only winter storm was the one going up the coast along the east.  As of right now 13 states have some sort of winter advisory including the entire state of Montana.  They also have a blizzard warning and snows from 10-20 inches including the bigger cities.  I'm guessing the storm won't have a name.

Model runs show no signs of coastal storms out to the 24th.  Next chance of rain is around Tuesday and that is only associated with a front.  Would be nice to get a calm week of weather to help all the people affected by both of these latest storms.

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Winds of Change

Though it is election night my title has no basis in politics but instead is an early look into a new weather pattern.  However, there is a major story before we can look into any changes.

Sitting here with a micro brew waiting patiently to hear who will win the election, it is strange to think that last week a monstrous storm was beginning to pull away from this area, leaving a trail of destruction never before seen.  And now we have a winter weather advisory.

I have been cautious since the storm first showed on the models about our area receiving any snow.  With a few hours to go I still am.  These things are tricky.  I will continue to sound like a broken record about these storms.  We are so close to the far western reaches of the storm I just can't honestly say we will see something.  Put it this way.  Draw a straight line from western Berks County east to the New Jersey coast.  The closer you get to the water, the better the chance for snow.  Of course there is also the cutoff between rain and snow so you have that too.

The latest run off the North American from tonight would give us some light snowfall.  It will update again before I go to bed which I will include the update somewhere on here.  At this point the highest snowfall would be just outside of Philadelphia say maybe Doylestown.

Of course this is not the main story.  Once again the coast of New Jersey is going to take a hard punch.  Winds will probably top off around 60 mph with heavy rain and coastal flooding.  Places that took a terrible hit last week will take another shot tomorrow.  Top it off with cold air rushing in behind that could change rain to snow in some locations by late tomorrow night.  What can you do?

There is some good news though.  The storm will kick change the pattern that we've been in recently.  The NAO is projected to be increasing positive from the 9th to the 21st.  It basically signals to me that the trough in the east will be gone meaning no storms coming up the coast and probably warmer temperatures.  As much as I love winter, there are millions of people in this area that could use a warm up.  Keep in mind, the average temperature for this time of year should be around 60 for a high.  We haven't hit 49 yet this month and won't do it until at least the weekend.  For some perspective, only three days last November had a high of 49 or less. 

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UPDATE: 10:00

Latest run is in and not a big change.  Moisture is actually pushed further west but intensity not as strong.  Storm also moved a bit south.  It won't help the hardest hit areas since they get the same wind field as the last storm with water being pushed inwards.  Heaviest precip stays from mid Jersey on south.  

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Sunday Update - Map Edition

Here we go again.  Of course nothing will compare to the last storm, but anything at this point spells trouble.  Let's look at the maps.

THIS IS A LOOK AT THE SHORT RANGE MODEL AT HOUR 84.  ARROWS ARE MINE SHOWING DIRECTION OF WIND AND OCEAN SURGE.  THIS WOULD EASILY FLOOD THE COAST.

NORTH AMERICAN SHOWS CLASSIC NOR'EASTER PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM DELAWARE TO MAINE.  NOTICE THE STORM AT AROUND 980 PRESSURE.  

EUROPE MODEL TAKES THE STORM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IN OUR REGION.  CONSIDERING WHAT JUST HAPPENED I DON'T THINK ANYBODY CARES MUCH ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOCALLY.

CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER STORM THAN THE OTHERS.  THIS ONE IS AT 965 WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN.

It is still too early to get into dynamics of the storm.  It's not looking good once again for New Jersey and New York at least along the water.  I'm somewhat surprised that most models tend to agree on a coastal storm already.

This is one of the those typical eastern winter storms that will be tough to pinpoint what happens inland.  There is cold air to work with but I'm leaning against snow for anybody outside of higher elevated areas. 

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UPDATE FROM THE WEATHER SERVICE

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