Winds of Change

Though it is election night my title has no basis in politics but instead is an early look into a new weather pattern.  However, there is a major story before we can look into any changes.

Sitting here with a micro brew waiting patiently to hear who will win the election, it is strange to think that last week a monstrous storm was beginning to pull away from this area, leaving a trail of destruction never before seen.  And now we have a winter weather advisory.

I have been cautious since the storm first showed on the models about our area receiving any snow.  With a few hours to go I still am.  These things are tricky.  I will continue to sound like a broken record about these storms.  We are so close to the far western reaches of the storm I just can't honestly say we will see something.  Put it this way.  Draw a straight line from western Berks County east to the New Jersey coast.  The closer you get to the water, the better the chance for snow.  Of course there is also the cutoff between rain and snow so you have that too.

The latest run off the North American from tonight would give us some light snowfall.  It will update again before I go to bed which I will include the update somewhere on here.  At this point the highest snowfall would be just outside of Philadelphia say maybe Doylestown.

Of course this is not the main story.  Once again the coast of New Jersey is going to take a hard punch.  Winds will probably top off around 60 mph with heavy rain and coastal flooding.  Places that took a terrible hit last week will take another shot tomorrow.  Top it off with cold air rushing in behind that could change rain to snow in some locations by late tomorrow night.  What can you do?

There is some good news though.  The storm will kick change the pattern that we've been in recently.  The NAO is projected to be increasing positive from the 9th to the 21st.  It basically signals to me that the trough in the east will be gone meaning no storms coming up the coast and probably warmer temperatures.  As much as I love winter, there are millions of people in this area that could use a warm up.  Keep in mind, the average temperature for this time of year should be around 60 for a high.  We haven't hit 49 yet this month and won't do it until at least the weekend.  For some perspective, only three days last November had a high of 49 or less. 

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UPDATE: 10:00

Latest run is in and not a big change.  Moisture is actually pushed further west but intensity not as strong.  Storm also moved a bit south.  It won't help the hardest hit areas since they get the same wind field as the last storm with water being pushed inwards.  Heaviest precip stays from mid Jersey on south.