How We Got Here

First thing I'm going to say in this post is that when I wrote my look ahead on Sunday the only thing I looked at was the exact same Global model run that I use most nights.  I didn't look at a single other map only interpreted what I saw.  Sure enough, we look to be centered in an area that gets one to two inches of rain and Green Bay has a winter storm warning for upwards of ten inches.  I'm going to stick with what the models suggest from now on.

Anyway, if you haven't noticed the calendar is approaching February.  If you haven't looked at my handy snow tracking guide, none of the three cities I have been tracking for our area have hit double digit snow totals.  We have a lot of ground to make up to catch up to those predictions.  Luckily, February is looking cold and active.

0.4
1.0
0.5
3.3
1.3
1.6
1.4

Those are the various snowfall reports from Allentown so far this winter.  The top three are from January.  That stings.  I would like to think 20 inches is something that could be attained this season with just one good storm.  Even an average season of 30-32 inches seems like a far cry.  The only thing for sure is that the only way to get there now is by getting moderate snows.

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SNOW OR NO?

I mentioned the clipper system on Sunday after looking at the model.  For some reason I still haven't heard anything about it or in the rare case when looking at a forecast, seen it mentioned.  After looking at the latest model I can admit it doesn't look as interesting.  At this point the weekend from Friday through Sunday could see various flurry action.

Another clipper will ride the jet stream next Tuesday.  It shows more moisture but again, it comes in quickly and moves out quickly.  At best it is a few inches right now.  If I were to guess I would say Allentown moves above 10 inches by Wednesday.  Even writing that is embarrassing.

The following weekend would show another system to follow.  Again, not worth looking at it now.  There also seems to be a moderating trend for the weekend of the 8th as well before another shot of cold comes down.

Right now the system to watch is for next Tuesday.  There is at least a low that is worth tracking, and I don't think temperatures will be an issue.  Even if we could bust out a five or sixer it would be better than the lackluster events we have been getting so far. 

 

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Another Advisory

Here we are beginning the new work week the same we ended this past work week.  The entire area is under a winter weather advisory and rightfully so.

Let's start however with this past powdery snow.  It's quite a treat to get snow when temperatures were as cold as they are.  Normally we experience a wetter snow since there is usually more moisture in the air.  Regardless, the light layer of snow was enough to cause problems with drivers on Friday and I expect the same tomorrow morning.

King of Prussia was the winner on Friday.  They managed to pull out 3.2 inches.  Most places were between one and two including Allentown and Philadelphia.  Of course Reading didn't report and the only amount I could find was 0.4.  I highly question that.  Either way the totals will be added.  The southern tier of the area did better as the models has indicated.

TOMORROW

The latest model and last I will be able to look at shows the precipitation moving in two different waves.  The first would start as and be predominantly snow.  Once again an inch or two is possible.  The second wave moves in later as temperatures move above freezing.  However temperatures will only get to around 35 and surface temperatures will likely be colder causing icing at some point.  It would look like this is going to start before rush hour in many places especially the further west you are.  Best idea is to check the conditions and radar in the morning and give yourself some extra time heading out.


A LOOK AHEAD

After tomorrow the next system will push in late Wednesday.  The low cuts up through Michigan which clearly puts us on the warm side of the system.  Not only that but there looks to be a decent amount of moisture with it.  I'd pick Green Bay as a target snow spot for this one.  Even Chicago could get a decent amount.  Wouldn't be surprised to see one to two inches of total rainfall for us.  The system also ushers in a fresh supply of cold air again going into the weekend.

Possibility of an Alberta clipper swinging through over the weekend.  That would give us the standard 1-3 snows.  Models don't show anything else developing with it right now.

I won't go any further than that.  NAO still showing a strong positive phase.


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RUN UPDATE

Lately it has been a struggle managing to have a race on an actual day it is cold or snowy.  I hadn't planned on joining a run but when I saw the forecast at the beginning of the week that included snow the day before and cold temperatures I knew I had to do it.

Those were the conditions about 15 minutes prior to the race.  I have no doubts this was by far the coldest race day temperature I have been out in.  The good thing was it wasn't windy which I thought could be an issue.

The entire run was around a school and little neighborhood.  It was a very simple run with no inclines and slightly snow covered streets and paths.  Enough people showed for this first ever 5k to make it a solid run but there were also I believe a lot of first timers or non-runners who just wanted to participate for the cause.  In fact, it spread out enough that for about half of the run there were times I couldn't see anybody in front of me.  It was like I was out by myself but also had to make sure I was going the right way.

All in all it was a nice little event especially for a first time group.  I was nursing a bit of a leg injury from last weekend that flared up again during the run that made the sitting around and waiting for awards at the end a bit uncomfortable, but I wanted to at least claim the prize.  Probably going to take a week off to let my muscles rest.

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Swing and a Miss

If you were hoping to see a snowstorm on Friday I have bad news for you.  The latest runs did not change a thing.  I'd even suggest to say that they actually look worse than yesterday.  Can't really say I am too pleased with the outcome.  It's somewhat annoying to get a weeks worth of this kind of cold air and not get anything more than a dusting of snow.  Not surprising considering the factors that need to occur for the cold air to get to us in the first place.

It's just that you know whenever our next opportunity for a storm comes along we will be right back along the rain snow line with temperatures in the mid 30's or low 40's.  I'm not going to go as far to say as the season is a bust because there is a good six more weeks, however the only way snow totals will rise is if we can start getting some coastal storms.  I haven't looked at the long range model for multiple reasons and don't plan on looking any time soon.  There isn't anything within the next week after this light snow tomorrow to interest me.

If you are keeping track at home Allentown has reported half an inch of snow this month and Reading zero.  Not at all what snow lovers want to see.

Here is my video to put an end on a snowstorm that never was.






Don't go full screen.  Took one attempt to make the video and hours to set the thing up.  Too blurry if you make it big. 

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A Blogging First

It didn't save me any time to put it together but for fun I went with a video blog update tonight.  Enjoy.  It's only a trial version so videos can only be a few minutes long.  Doesn't give me a whole lot of time to explain.  Thought it would be interesting to try.

I suggest selecting full screen.

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Watching Friday

The scattered snow showers last night turned out to be just that.  Some place received next to nothing while others had over an inch.  The first wave moved through our northern areas with places closer to the Poconos hitting the one inch total.  The second wave developed more intensely in the Philadelphia region and into southern New Jersey.  For the first time this year, Philadelphia reported over an inch of snow during one snowfall.  That is poised to change.

The potential snow for Friday is still on the map.  You might be hearing the models are strengthening the low out over the coast meaning less snow for us.  Just hold off on this until tomorrow night.  There are so many factors with these that a few model runs don’t mean a heck of a lot right now.  I got a laugh out of WFMZ this morning when I flipped to the channel ever so briefly after seeing coverage of a fire on the Philadelphia news in Allentown.  Their weather forecast and maps are AccuWeather based so I’m not really sure how much actual predicting they are doing.  When I turned to it the meteorologist was showing a map of the real feel temperatures before discussing the potential snow on Friday.  To paraphrase it went roughly like this:

There is a potential for a major snowstorm on Friday, but it also could be minor depending on the track.  It could even turn out to be just a moderate snow.

I really can’t stand a statement like that.  Not only is his statement vague, it isn’t remotely specific.  I for one have no clue what defines a major, minor or moderate snow.  That’s a matter of opinion.  How about… We are currently monitoring the potential for snowfall on Friday.  Current track indicates that we would see a plowable snowfall.  Keep tuned for more information as it is received.  Simple and calm especially since we are a few days out.  Or like both Philadelphia channels said, looking like we will need the shovels.

One place that probably ditched the shovels years ago was the areas that surround the Great Lakes.  After a slow start this season, the cold temperatures ushered in by those steady northwest winds are once again producing steady snows in those usual prime locals.  Cleveland, Erie, Rochester and Syracuse are all under lake effect snow warnings.  After a very quiet 2011-12 season that saw an unusually low amount of snow, places like Syracuse are set to pass what they ended with last year already.  As one of the snowiest major cities in the world, Syracuse has to continue to represent the country in the competition each year.  It also helps that Lake Ontario never freezes due to the depth of the lake so lake effect snow can almost occur all winter long.  

At least you aren't in Norilsk, Russia right now.

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Hello Cold

I would be willing to guess that the next seven days could indeed be the coldest stretch of weather we see for the rest of the winter.  Before I get into that let's rewind briefly. 

After our last winter weather advisory, which I believe was for 1-4 inches, I said I would post a picture of what actually would be waiting for me the next morning.  Which I stated I thought would not much of anything.  Here it is.

I believe that would qualify as not much of anything.  Only the windshield and top of the car had anything on it and the little specs of white on the bottom of the picture are on top of bushes.  There was nothing on the grass.  I'll give myself a point for this one.

It was however interesting to see the changes as I drove to work.  Once I got into the Blandon-Fleetwood area I noticed some slight icing on trees and branches.  By the time I got to Topton, everything except the roads had a layer of ice coating it including signs and practically anything outside.  Doesn't take a lot of distance to see a change.

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THIS WEEK

By now most of us are aware of a light system coming into our area tomorrow.  There really isn't a lot of moisture to work with but whatever falls will be snow.  Everybody in the area should see a coating.  I'd expect about an inch in areas closer to the Appalachian Trial or higher elevations.

The real change this week is going to be the cold coming down from the arctic.  I'm not sure places like Allentown ever make it to 30 this entire week.  Temperatures will average anywhere from 5 to 20 degrees below normal straight through the weekend.   

All eyes are looking ahead to Friday.  There has been a constant agreement in runs that there would appear to be some sort of snow event.  All the details will have to be worked out as model runs continue to pick up on the storm.  For a change it would not appear that many places in our area have to worry about the rain/snow line.  Of course I say that now.

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RUN UPDATE

I guess the quick version of the story is I actually made it out to run today.  Last night I thought I had no chance.  I woke up sore yesterday morning and it wasn't like a worked-out-too-hard sore either.  That and I'm never sore after working out.  I went through the day drinking loads of water and tea before catching the Flyers.  It was during the game that the battle between whether I was cold or hot started.  When the game was over I decided I better get ready for the night by cranking the heat up, turning the sofa into a bed and putting on a sweatshirt with the hood up.  I rested while putting hockey on but knew I also had to make a meal if I was running the next morning.  Needless to say, my normal bag of tortellini, two sausages and spinach dinner took me at least five attempts to finish.  That's when I called it a day.  By nine I had my head down facing away from the TV and ready to fall asleep with the though that there is no way I can run like this tomorrow and maybe I can send a message to one of my friends to at least pick up my shirt since I already registered.  Or maybe I could at least make an appearance to get my shirt and leave.  I fell asleep and woke back up at 10:41 thinking it was morning.  I changed to the late NHL game but caught none of it.  I was back asleep quickly sweating out the fever and thinking this is just the beginning.  The next thing I knew I woke up and it was morning.  My phone said 7:34.  I looked around and thought, I actually feel decent.

That was all I needed and I started to get ready.  I went with oatmeal and four cups of coffee as my pre-run meal.  For once I just wanted to get through the run and didn't care how many times I had to stop and walk or who passed me.  I even started towards the front so I wouldn't have to deal with a log jam.  It didn't take long before I could feel my legs were weak.  Not only that but within about two miles I had to tinkle.  I spent most of the race trying to figure out if I should indeed stop and go behind a tree or keep going so I was done quicker.  I ended up never going.  At the beginning the organizer told us they had to change the course the day before (something about whoever owning the grounds saying we couldn't run there).  It's not uncommon for that to happen since normally this area is never disturbed by people, and they'd like to keep damage to a minimal.  With that being said he had no idea what the actual distance of the course was and would wait for the people with GPS to finish and let them know.  For the first time, probably because I wasn't feeling the best, I listened to my Ipod during a trail run to pass the time.  It doesn't have GPS.  I can only assume the trail was at least a half a mile shorter than the intended 7.2 miles.  I will find out when it gets posted tomorrow.  My guess is because I finished with a better time than I had last year.     


 

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Weather Delay

Won't get to post much in terms of the system moving through tonight.  Any winter weather from last night stayed further north as another low develops and tracks through tonight.  Wouldn't you know, the rain/ice/snow line happens to cut right through our area.  It's almost like it happens every time.  It doesn't, but you don't see this happening in State College or Scranton often.

Part of the reason I wanted to at least get a brief post in tonight was because of something I complained about earlier this winter.  I'm not a fan of posting weather watches for entire counties so that towns a few miles apart but in different counties could have completely different forecasts.  Well, the weather service must have been hearing my cries.  Look at the map.

Well done National Weather Service.  Nothing extreme.  Nobody has more than an advisory.  Bolder?  For the first time that I can recall in winter, there are advisories out for portions of a county.  If you look at Chester, Montgomery and Bucks, only the northern sections have the advisory.  It's also another clear indication of just how close these areas are between dealing with tricky driving tomorrow or wet roads.

Most places are looking at 1-2 inches of snow and sleet with a coating of ice to go along with it.  I'm not particularly convinced this will happen at least for the area directly outside of my door.  It started to rain as I was writing this with temps at 37.  There still needs to be a cool down for anything to change over let only begin to stick.  The latest model has the heaviest precip moving through the area when the 32 degree line goes directly through the middle of Berks and just below Allentown.  The latest run is updating now so be ready for an update in a paragraph or two.

I'm not indicating I won't wake up to some white or off-white colors displayed on the grass or cars, but I also don't expect to see a street, even one hardly used, to be covered.  Points to the north could be a different story.  However, I can only go by reports to figure out what happens in places like Hamburg or Slatington.  I would say this.  Draw a straight line from west to east that goes through Reading and into NJ.  If you are south of that I don't think you will have too many issues.  This is a Lehigh Valley storm if you ask me along with the northern tier of Berks.

Still waiting for the model to update.  Thought I would share.

Kind of a case in point about what I was talking about.  Allentown is reporting snow.  It's raining here.  The difference?  It's 37 here and 36 there.  Who wants to explain?  Assuming I'm up I will post the 10:30 radar.

Latest run is in and if anything it went a little warmer.  Going to stick with instinct on this one.  Picture of conditions outside when I wake up to follow tomorrow to see if I will indeed be accurate (which is not much of anything).

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Less Shiver and River

When I signed up for the Shiver series last year, an event consisting of runs in December, January, February and March, I was almost sure to be running in some of the worst conditions.  After all, runs are rarely if ever postponed.  Today marked the 6th time I have done one of these and I am seeing a meteorological pattern. 

I am starting to guess when I should expect bad weather based off when I have runs.  Trail runs tend to be wet, muddy or cooler than normal.  The Shiver series at least for me is favoring a warmer than average trend.  With today included, 5 of the 6 runs have had temperatures that day warmer than normal including one day last year at 62.  There also has yet to be even a coating of snow to contend with.  I believe I have run in shorts in almost all of these races.  That also includes today.

I can at least say that today was a nice surprise.  With forecast temperatures in the mid 50's at race time, I was expecting a warm day.  Instead it was about 46 with a mist heavy enough to wet your clothes and light enough to let water trickle down your face.  According to my tracker I had a successful time of 22:11 and better yet, the run measured out exactly at 3.1 miles.  However, once I crossed the line I realized a few things.  The race was packed with more people than usually.  At least that's the way it looked.  To leave you have to cross the line of runners coming in and runners going back out for another 5k.  You also have to drive along the same road they run on to leave the park and the same road they take out of the park that has limited lane usage.  Secondly, the conditions were almost perfect to run in.  A little warmer and I could have stayed out all day.  Finally, I don't get the chance to run much with the sunset still too early to get out after work.  The weekend is my only time.  Next weekend brings along the more challenging seven mile trail run.  This was my last run before that.  So I ran around the walking path at the park.  In fact I ran a slightly further 3.4 miles.  Good prep for the upcoming weekend.

Weather looks average for this one.  It was average last year too.

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There isn't a lot to report for our area.  But we knew that and are now waiting for the arctic chill to come into the area after next weekend.  That's all I really need as it at least gives us the chance to get snow.  There is a possible chance of some winter weather Monday night.  It won't be anything major but the littlest mix can cause issues.  Otherwise it looks quiet through the week.

BLIZZARD

If you think cities in the United States get a lot of snow, try going to Canada where most major cities get dumped on.  St. John's averages 140 inches a year.  Sitting on the far eastern side of an island in the northern Atlantic is a recipe for nasty weather.  Boy did they get some this week.  And over 100,000 people live in the city.

Here is what happens when you get a massive storm spinning over you.

I heard totals as high as at least 40 inches fell.  Not bad for an area not in the mountains or any lakes.  Can't imagine how long it takes for this to melt in an area that doesn't get above 32 often in winter.  I will have to watch to see if they get any more storms soon.

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A Day Out

With most of the snow melted and no weather concerns on the horizon, it is the perfect time to enjoy the outdoors.  It’s something I plan on doing more of this year.  I got a message from the running crew last night about a group outing at Nolde for this morning.  Group runs are nice, but the pace is a little on the slow side for me.  Plus, I had already set my sights on something before the message was even received.  I planned on tackling The Sink.

Okay, yes these might not be the technically names but amongst the groups they know.  I had done it once before and really enjoyed it.  This time I was doing it alone and bringing my friendly running guide to track me.  I must admit, I was a little pumped this morning.  In the last month I believe I have run twice and both were at races.  That’s not particularly optimal for a person signing up for short to moderately long and difficult races.

I started at river level next to the Schuylkill River.  It doesn’t take long to quickly get away from the water.  I would put the GPS map on here except it has many pin marks when I paused for pictures or to ensure I was taking the correct trails.  According to the tracker, at mile 0.88 I was at a below normal 144 feet.  Less than two miles later I was at 861.  That’s not even that bad.  Around the five mile mark it goes from 446 feet to 639 feet in less than three tenths of a mile.  That’s where you walk.  The nice thing about the trails are the only time you have to double back on yourself is in the last two miles.  And that is only if you choose to park in the furthest area.

It all went well, and I still had weather on my mind.  Like when by the river I was blowing into my hands due to the chilly temps near the water, then eventually found myself in the bright eastern sun as I headed up.  Then I got to the northern part of the large hill to find lots of shade, chilly air and a decent amount of snow still on the ground.  One of the other enjoyable aspects is the ability to do a half circle looking down across much of central Berks and virtually all of Reading.

The final verdict:

Pictures below.

A Look Into Town

Wide Shot - Similar Look without the zoom

Earlier shot to also capture Pagoda on right

Wider and Brighter

Old School Effect - Maybe new title bar background for the blog?

 

Bit of a half circle around now on the west side of the trail - By the way this is the 200 feet straight up section.  The telephone poles below are where I had just been before.

Facing almost directly west and looking down on the Schuylkill

Same spot but not looking straight down this time

Certainly I will be back soon as this is easily one of my favorites.  Unless there is something unusual about the day, pictures will not accompany any possible posts.  Because I don't plan on taking any.  

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Snow and a Plunge

Maybe it is just me but when a holiday falls on a Tuesday it can make for what feels like a long week.  Case in point, it snowed this past weekend.  It felt like it was a week or two ago.  Now that I have some time, here are the results.

In a bit of a twist that saw the morning snow combine with the heavier snow from the coastal low, Berks ended up winning in the snow department in our area.  In fact, the Mount Holly weather service that covers a large region surrounding Philadelphia had no other places report more than Bernville at 6.1 inches.  For the record, that is 21 different counties and about 100 areas reporting.  Macungie, Kutztown and Fleetwood all reported at least five inches as well.  Philadelphia got hosed again.

Now for my few shots I took.  I'd also put my area right around the five inch mark.  Must also commend the two crew maintenance team basically right across the street for a solid job plowing.  Guess it helps to have your own plow for the complex.

Snow totals are updated again.  Still have trouble believing most Reading reports.  If you wonder how Philadelphia got on there it is because they went back and gave two tenths from the small Christmas dusting.  By they way I should also mention that reports are taken at the cities airports as official.  I mention this because the Philly airport is barely within the city and is located in the furthest area south.  The Reading airport isn't even in the city.  It snowed in Philadelphia this weekend, just not at the place that records totals.

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As we welcome a new year it is custom for many to proclaim a resolution to perhaps eat better, exercise more, spend quality family time, read a book or any other activity that will last for a month or two.  Other people jump into very cold bodies of water.  I went with choice number two.

There is nothing quite like the excitement of standing outside on a 36 degree day in your shorts waiting to run into a lake with a bunch of other knuckleheads.  Okay, that might be a lie.  Blue Marsh Lake was the water of choice on New Year's Day.  36 degrees is a guess on the temperature based off the high of the day.  Add in no sun and a nice little breeze and it wasn't 36.  The water temp was probably around 35, again basing this off of other water temperatures.

The crazy crew seconds before the plunge.

Time to freeze.

Let's just say the water was cold.  Not sure why I anticipated warmer.  I would however recommend that if you are feeling a bit tired or sluggish, go take a quick (really quick) dip in a 30 some degree lake.


Pattern looks very quiet for the next two weeks.  No negative NAO to bring storms up the coast and temperatures will moderate enough to make the chance of a system in all likelihood rain.  Only winter storm warnings in the country are along the Texas-Mexico border.  That's usually my sign to relax from the writing for a little.

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