How We Got Here

First thing I'm going to say in this post is that when I wrote my look ahead on Sunday the only thing I looked at was the exact same Global model run that I use most nights.  I didn't look at a single other map only interpreted what I saw.  Sure enough, we look to be centered in an area that gets one to two inches of rain and Green Bay has a winter storm warning for upwards of ten inches.  I'm going to stick with what the models suggest from now on.

Anyway, if you haven't noticed the calendar is approaching February.  If you haven't looked at my handy snow tracking guide, none of the three cities I have been tracking for our area have hit double digit snow totals.  We have a lot of ground to make up to catch up to those predictions.  Luckily, February is looking cold and active.

0.4
1.0
0.5
3.3
1.3
1.6
1.4

Those are the various snowfall reports from Allentown so far this winter.  The top three are from January.  That stings.  I would like to think 20 inches is something that could be attained this season with just one good storm.  Even an average season of 30-32 inches seems like a far cry.  The only thing for sure is that the only way to get there now is by getting moderate snows.

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SNOW OR NO?

I mentioned the clipper system on Sunday after looking at the model.  For some reason I still haven't heard anything about it or in the rare case when looking at a forecast, seen it mentioned.  After looking at the latest model I can admit it doesn't look as interesting.  At this point the weekend from Friday through Sunday could see various flurry action.

Another clipper will ride the jet stream next Tuesday.  It shows more moisture but again, it comes in quickly and moves out quickly.  At best it is a few inches right now.  If I were to guess I would say Allentown moves above 10 inches by Wednesday.  Even writing that is embarrassing.

The following weekend would show another system to follow.  Again, not worth looking at it now.  There also seems to be a moderating trend for the weekend of the 8th as well before another shot of cold comes down.

Right now the system to watch is for next Tuesday.  There is at least a low that is worth tracking, and I don't think temperatures will be an issue.  Even if we could bust out a five or sixer it would be better than the lackluster events we have been getting so far.