2015 Mega Storm

Considering the magnitude of this storm I am going to quickly bypass the 7.9 inches of snow that fell Friday night into Saturday morning.  It actually didn't even qualify for a name based on my standards.  The next storm will qualify for two.

It's not often you get a storm like the one that is about to happen Monday into Tuesday.  Somebody is going to hit 30 inches.  That for me in a coastal storm is the ultimate number to classify this as a monster storm that will go down in the books.

Now we play the game.  The clipper system is going to bring snow.  So nobody is escaping this one without getting anything.  Then the storm develops off the coast and kicks back very heavy moisture.  There is plenty of cold air in place which means very heavy snow for the coastal areas from New Jersey to Maine.  Where and when this storms forms and the direction it takes plays a huge role for our area.  Huge.

Since this type of storm is so rare I'm going to pepper this post with images from all sorts of sites along with giving my opinion.

I'll start out with this statement.  Whether it was two days ago, yesterday or today I have yet to see any indication that this storms greatly impacts our area.  By area I mean Reading.  I will touch base with the rest of the area locations later.  I think most of Berks is too far west to be in the main plume of moisture.

The current warnings as of 4:50 p.m.  These are subject to change as more info is processed.

Reading and Allentown - Winter Storm Watch

Philadelphia - Winter Storm Warning

New York City - Blizzard Warning


Map of Total Snow Accumulation according to NOAA

Aside from lake effect you will never see a map like this anywhere else but in the northeast.  You have a shade of 4-6 in far western Berks County to 24-36 inches in the New York metro area.

Reading in the 6-8
Allentown in the 8-10
Easton in the 10-14
Philadelphia in the 14-18

That maps seems a bit over done for me with the exception of the 6-8 inch totals.


Short Term Model Totals

This map shows the total snow through Wednesday.  Quite frankly it is not very impressive for us.  The max accumulation in blue is up to six inches with darker shades being more.  Purple starts six and above and pink begins double digits.  This again however is according to the short term forecast.  There are others.

From The Weather Channel

I take my jabs at The Weather Channel but I respect their winter weather team.  They also nailed the last snowfall so the credibility rises for me.  I find this map far more realistic.  Look at the one that NOAA put out and come back and look at this one.  Since it doesn't show up on the one above you will have to trust me that they have totals for New York City predicted at 24-36.  In fact pick just about any city and see the huge difference in totals between the maps.  One has Philly in 14-18 and the other 5-8.  AC shows up around the 14 inch total according to NOAA and 1-3 according to TWC.  The one thing we can do is come back and look to see just how close this ended up being.  My money is on the Weather Channel map being more accurate.

The EURO can't be posted but has stayed aggressive which is why I guess the weather service has kept such high total while others are keeping it lower perhaps using all the models to create an average.  I can give you the totals that this model shows before moving on to something that can be shown.

New York - 20 inches
Central and Northern NJ - 14 to 18
Philadelphia and Allentown - 10 to 14
Reading - 6 to 10

NBC Philadelphia Totals

 
Locals seem to be slow on putting out numbers.  Might be because it is a weekend.  Here is a look at what NBC posted although I have no idea when so this might change by tonight.


ABC New York

I often forget that New York maps cover a good chunk of our area as well.  This is a first for me.  I've never used a New York affiliate map before.  My only concern with the map is they leave a ton of wiggle room to be "right".  We give a pass when they show 12-24 inches yet that would be the same as putting up a graphic of 1-12 inches.


Canadian Model Totals

Resembles the short term model.  Not very aggressive until you move up the coast from Long Island and north.  I didn't mention it before but a few of these show more snow falling in Pittsburgh from the original clipper than what we would end up with.  Could be interesting to see if that happens.


AccuWeather

I was going to draw a map but I realize I'm well over an hour into this and it's time to move on to other things.  Instead I will give you my predictions by area.

Western Berks:  4-6 inches
Reading (area):  5-7 inches
Allentown (area):  6-9 inches
Hunterdon Co:  10-15 inches

This one is relatively simple in that the heaviest snow will fall to the east and especially northeast of a particular location.  I'm really not convinced the storm does a lot from Reading westward.  Most of the total snowfall I see coming for those areas is connected to the clipper and the energy transfer.  All the models show an influx of moisture coming in from the east that almost stop right at the Berks border to the counties of the west.  If we are that close to the western edge I only sense two things.  It's more likely the moisture never makes it that far as opposed to pushing even further west, and the snow that does fall will be the lightest of the whole system.

The fun part of this is that even if you look at the maps above (I will add to this later when other local news sites put out their maps) there is a varying opinion.  You can look at totals and see which models they based their prediction off of.  I'm in the boat that if one model which does happen to be accurate is predicting one thing and four others are predicting another, I'm leaning to the side of the majority.

One group who put out their map as I've been writing is EPAWA.  They favor the EURO.  They aren't the only ones especially looking at that NOAA map which will change five times before lunch tomorrow.

These guys are pretty good so check them out when you can.

Whatever happens, enjoy.  Snow is snow regardless of two inches or 22 inches.  One is a lot easier to shovel though.  Just don't be too disappointed if some totals are a bit lower than expected.