Never Simple

I sat at work yesterday touting that for once we would have a storm that wouldn't play games.  It wasn't going to ride the coast with an indeterminable track.  This would come from the west.  It would move through with the same energy it had coming from the mid-west.  If they get 8-12 inches of snow draw a line east and that area will get the same.  But this is the east coast.  It can't be that easy.

Winter Storm watches have been posted for Berks and the Valley.  As of right now that is the cut off line as counties to the south and east have nothing.  That will eventually change but also shows just how tight this could become in determining who gets what.  The good news is, and trust me this is good news, right now we are in the snow portion of the storm where as Philadelphia is not.  Damn you warm air.  To the maps we go.


We start with the GFS. The often unreliable yet somehow mildy accurate model.  Maybe that recent upgrade has worked.

GFS wants a battle.  You can clearly see the 32 degree line with heavy snow to the north and rain to the south.  Notice there is very little mixing.  I feel this has to do with just how different these temperature variations are as warm air is pulled north.  In our area that line is cutting through southern Berks at the onset.  Of course this will change.

Here is the next image that clearly shows the low moving across the Mason Dixon line.  Everybody is now in the heavy rain portion of the storm with temperatures between 32 and 35.  The storm after this would track off the coast and once again give heavy snow to New England pulling down the cold air on the back end and finishing as snow for our region.


For the totals:

Berks:  3-5
Allentown:  6-10
Philadelphia: Coating-2


The Canadian model that tends to be similar to the GFS doesn't buy into the same idea.

The Euro doesn't either.  Their snowfall maps look similar to the one above except scaled back a bit.  Totals for all of our region would fall in the 8-14 inch range.


Here is the current snow total map from NOAA.

AccuWeather is buying the GFS.

The Weather Channel is not.  Props for throwing in Allentown.  I better watch myself before I start falling for these guys again.

The North American short term was updating when I started this and have since adjusted totals a bit.  And they shifted to the south.

In a sense we have somewhat of a reversal from the last storm.  The Euro was the only major model to hang on to a significant snowfall in the interior while the GFS called for the push east.  This time the GFS is the only one to push this storm to the north while others keep cold air hanging further south.  It would be an easy decision if other outlets did not agree with the GFS, but it is clear AccuWeather shows some agreement.

Here is what we do know.  In almost anyway you slice it we are too close to the boundary between heavy snow and light snow to fully understand what will happen.  In a case of another change from the last storm where NOAA had totals I completely disagreed with I think their current map above is very accurate for right now.  I do think the GFS is too far north with the rain line however I don't think we can stay all snow right now.  The heaviest is just to our north running across the PA-NY border through CT and MA.

Since this will probably be the last time I post all these maps even though I'm sure there will be adjustments, I will use this as a basis going forward.  Which means I need to throw my hat in the ring.

Reading:  6.9 (They won't report)
Allentown: 8.6
Easton/Town close by:  9.4
House on top of 1,000 foot mountain in NJ:  12+

I am looking forward to this one regardless of totals.  Got to keep those snow totals climbing.

Currently after the random squalls yesterday:

Allentown = 19.1 inches