Starting Fresh

All it took was a new year to get the snow machine cranking around the lakes.  Lake Effect Snow warnings are up for Buffalo, Erie and Cleveland.  A watch is in place for Syracuse.  And if you live anywhere near the lakes in Michigan, expect to be shoveling for much of the first week of 2012.  Many of these places will get two to three times more snow than they have seen this pitiful season. 

Many people have been waiting awhile to get snow in those areas.  All I was hoping for was some cold weather and luckily it is on the way just in time.  After above normal temperatures for most of the last two months including both days this weekend, the cold air will shoot in for the outdoor game tomorrow in Philadelphia.  Only issue that could be more of an irritant to the fans is the cold air will be ushered in with some pretty strong winds that will certainly make the day a cold one. 

Now that December is over we can go back and look at how good the locals were at making forecasts.  I did not do monthly predictions since clearly I don’t have the resources they do so I am out of the running.  But my below average snowfall for Philadelphia still looks good.  Let’s take a look.

Average high in Philly was 50.9 degrees.  That is a full 6 degrees above normal.  Not very normal.  The average low was another 5 ½ degrees above normal.  I would say the month was quite warm.  And of course in terms of snow, squadoosh.  Rewind to the predictions.

CBS- Average Temps, Little Snowfall-  Sorry, can’t give much credit for almosts

Fox kept it simple by saying snow and cold through January.  Guess it’s a miss for now

ABC-  Cold first half.  Try again.

NBC- Below Average, 10 inches.  Credit for specifics but not even close.

Overall I would say that this was a general fail.  Of course it would have been bold to say no snow and above normal temps in December.  But it also would have been right.

Since somebody, specifically the areas I’m watching, are finally getting snow, expect some picture posts soon.  Bring on the snow!   

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No White Christmas

I tried holding out as long as I could but everything about the possible event before Christmas continues to say rain.  Not only that but it would appear that we will see absolutely no snow for November and December.

Off to a slow start?  That's for sure.  But you could make a case for a lot of places right now.  Syracuse just passed the one inch mark for the season.  That is almost unheard of.  Buffalo sits at three.  And the list keeps going.  Cleveland, Chicago and many places around the Great Lakes have seen some of their smallest totals to date in recorded history.  Remember, even though December has been a bust, Allentown is less than an inch off the current seasonal average thanks to October. 

While the east is missing out, the west is getting hammered.  Blizzard in Kansas, heavy snows in Denver, Flagstaff, Albuquerque and Cheyenne.  The next system brings snow all the way down into Mexico.  El Paso has a Winter Storm Watch and I'm pretty sure its not the first one this year.

By the way, it's not like we are bathing in cold air either.  25 of the 30 days in November saw the high temperature at or above the historical average.  December?  17 of the first 21.  The average high on the 22nd is 38.  In the next ten days only one is forecast to have a high in the 30's.

It's hard to say how this year is going to play out.  After all, today is only the first day of the actual winter season, but unless we get a major change in the pattern, we are not going to see any snow storms soon.  If you remember from a previous post (or scroll down) I included a predicted NAO chart.  Everything was positive.  Not a good indicator for snow in our area.  We need negative NAO to bring in the cold air and track storms up the coast.  Want to take a look at the next few weeks?

Last time I posted this disturbing chart was on my birthday and it look incredibly similar.  I'm sure you recall that since that date to today we have seen a lot of nothing.  So take a guess at what we might see over the next two weeks.  I can't even hype up anything just for fun.  Now the only question is will it be cold enough for the outdoor game in Philadelphia. 

Two of my favorite things.  Hockey and Weather.  At least I have something to look forward to.

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Watching the Models

Going to make it quick tonight as I have been spending a lot of time looking at the models over the past two days.  In fact I just got done with the North American Model that update at 9:35.  Why all the interest?  Remember how I said last post that there was no snow in sight in the forecast?  Things change.

The track has slowly been changing slightly eastward meaning cold air will come in from the north and west and possibly change rain over to snow in certain areas.  The question remains where will that area be.  As of right now our area would be in the zone to receive some snowfall.  Of course things can always change and we still have at least 48 hours to go.  I'm not blowing the whistle and ring the bells on this one.  I'm just putting it out there now, with the latest runs, there is a chance the area sees snow sometime Wednesday into Thursday.

We could get into totals but I don't think that would do much good for anybody.  In fact neither TWC or AW is predicting snow, and the NOAA has a slight chance.  Meanwhile, the models, which also calculate other variables like total snow on the ground has areas as high as 10 inches north of the Lehigh Valley. 

I will keep monitoring the models each night.  I could check them tomorrow and see absolutely nothing.  Either way we are not talking about anything major here.  But it's always nice to have something to track.  This is generally the time of year when we do start to see winter begin to take shape.

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Accu Update

Felt like I had to share this as Accuweather decided to update their original winter season predictions.  Personally I feel like this is just a way to continually change what was originally stated so they can eventually go back and say at some point they had it right.  Of course it's right when it's changed every two weeks.

If you click on the label below the comments that says 2011-12 Forecast, it will bring up all the posts that have to deal with predictions for this year.  As of now it is only my original prediction and the ones that the locals from Philadelphia stated.  I invite you to go back and what I wrote before anybody else stated anything.  And also look at the pictures I posted from the Accuweather site.


Now look at the map.

 - From the Winter Forecast Update:

In the updated forecast, near-normal lake-effect snow will fall around the eastern Great Lakes. However, snow amounts could still end up above normal in this zone from storms cutting away from the coastal Northeast.

With a storm track farther north and west compared to last year, snowfall will be near to below normal for the highly populated I-95 corridor, including Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Stormy weather is still expected, but there will be more events with a wintry mix or a changeover to rain.

Funny.  They weren't saying this a couple weeks ago.  And they also predicted higher than normal snowfall for PHI and NYC.

Maybe they have started to read this site?

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By the way snow haters, took a look at the long range for the next two weeks and see at this time no chance for snow.  There are two chances for good rains but both have warm air out in front (like I said in my original prediction would happen).  Of course sandwiched in the middle is a shot of cold air.  

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