Quick Change

Like what commonly occurs, it takes one big storm to change the pattern and ever since Sandy the pattern thankfully has been relatively quiet and average.  In fact if you haven't noticed November has been dry.  Reading has picked up less than 3/4 of an inch of rain compared to over eight inches in October. 

That quiet pattern might be set for a change.  Take a look at the NAO forecast.

Notice the very short red bars of positive NAO turn into longer bars of a solid negative NAO.  And once again this would mean a dip in the jet stream to favor shots of cold air with the chance of storms coming up the coast.  Put it this way, it's the difference between a flat jet stream and one shaped more like an elongated U. 

SHORT TERM:

A cold front will sweep into the area Saturday morning.  Cold would be relatively speaking.  Temps should be about ten degrees below normal but both days this weekend look to include at the very least a breeze.  The front won't have much moisture to work with so a passing flurry in the higher terrain is about as much as we can squeeze out of this one.

There is a storm brewing for the middle of next week.  It would appear to be a rainmaker at this point in time however we have a week to go yet.  I'm not even going to bother putting any images up as they will be all over the place.  Just keep in mind something might be in the works.

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Storm Totals

Not going to have a lot of time to get in a lengthy post about the storm.  Clearly the forecasts were off as they typical are when you have no idea where a storm is going to move and at what point it will strengthen.  Instead of it hugging the coast it went a bit further out to sea.  Either way, I was skeptical about the area receiving any snow and my skepticism turned out to be correct.

Other places got a heck of a lot more than they were preparing for.  If the Weather Channel can create stupid names for winter storms based on no merit then so can I.  Here are the highest amounts being reported from winter storm Aretha.

Fairfield, CT - 13.5
Clintonville, CT - 13.5
Freehold, NJ - 13
Jackson Twp, NJ - 12
Manchester Twp, NJ - 12
Hamden, CT - 12
North Haven, CT - 12

Others of note:

Newark - 6.2
Central Park - 4.7
Atlantic City - 2.5
Allentown - 0
Reading - 0
Philadelphia - 0


I mentioned the storm would signal a change in the pattern.  It is almost already noticeable.  Storms will have cold air to work with as they come parading in from the Pacific.  Yesterday the only winter storm was the one going up the coast along the east.  As of right now 13 states have some sort of winter advisory including the entire state of Montana.  They also have a blizzard warning and snows from 10-20 inches including the bigger cities.  I'm guessing the storm won't have a name.

Model runs show no signs of coastal storms out to the 24th.  Next chance of rain is around Tuesday and that is only associated with a front.  Would be nice to get a calm week of weather to help all the people affected by both of these latest storms.

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Winds of Change

Though it is election night my title has no basis in politics but instead is an early look into a new weather pattern.  However, there is a major story before we can look into any changes.

Sitting here with a micro brew waiting patiently to hear who will win the election, it is strange to think that last week a monstrous storm was beginning to pull away from this area, leaving a trail of destruction never before seen.  And now we have a winter weather advisory.

I have been cautious since the storm first showed on the models about our area receiving any snow.  With a few hours to go I still am.  These things are tricky.  I will continue to sound like a broken record about these storms.  We are so close to the far western reaches of the storm I just can't honestly say we will see something.  Put it this way.  Draw a straight line from western Berks County east to the New Jersey coast.  The closer you get to the water, the better the chance for snow.  Of course there is also the cutoff between rain and snow so you have that too.

The latest run off the North American from tonight would give us some light snowfall.  It will update again before I go to bed which I will include the update somewhere on here.  At this point the highest snowfall would be just outside of Philadelphia say maybe Doylestown.

Of course this is not the main story.  Once again the coast of New Jersey is going to take a hard punch.  Winds will probably top off around 60 mph with heavy rain and coastal flooding.  Places that took a terrible hit last week will take another shot tomorrow.  Top it off with cold air rushing in behind that could change rain to snow in some locations by late tomorrow night.  What can you do?

There is some good news though.  The storm will kick change the pattern that we've been in recently.  The NAO is projected to be increasing positive from the 9th to the 21st.  It basically signals to me that the trough in the east will be gone meaning no storms coming up the coast and probably warmer temperatures.  As much as I love winter, there are millions of people in this area that could use a warm up.  Keep in mind, the average temperature for this time of year should be around 60 for a high.  We haven't hit 49 yet this month and won't do it until at least the weekend.  For some perspective, only three days last November had a high of 49 or less. 

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UPDATE: 10:00

Latest run is in and not a big change.  Moisture is actually pushed further west but intensity not as strong.  Storm also moved a bit south.  It won't help the hardest hit areas since they get the same wind field as the last storm with water being pushed inwards.  Heaviest precip stays from mid Jersey on south.  

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Sunday Update - Map Edition

Here we go again.  Of course nothing will compare to the last storm, but anything at this point spells trouble.  Let's look at the maps.

THIS IS A LOOK AT THE SHORT RANGE MODEL AT HOUR 84.  ARROWS ARE MINE SHOWING DIRECTION OF WIND AND OCEAN SURGE.  THIS WOULD EASILY FLOOD THE COAST.

NORTH AMERICAN SHOWS CLASSIC NOR'EASTER PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM DELAWARE TO MAINE.  NOTICE THE STORM AT AROUND 980 PRESSURE.  

EUROPE MODEL TAKES THE STORM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IN OUR REGION.  CONSIDERING WHAT JUST HAPPENED I DON'T THINK ANYBODY CARES MUCH ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN LOCALLY.

CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER STORM THAN THE OTHERS.  THIS ONE IS AT 965 WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAIN.

It is still too early to get into dynamics of the storm.  It's not looking good once again for New Jersey and New York at least along the water.  I'm somewhat surprised that most models tend to agree on a coastal storm already.

This is one of the those typical eastern winter storms that will be tough to pinpoint what happens inland.  There is cold air to work with but I'm leaning against snow for anybody outside of higher elevated areas. 

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UPDATE FROM THE WEATHER SERVICE

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